can't believe our odds for Friday

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jirskyr
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Re: can't believe our odds for Friday

Post by jirskyr » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 4:45 pm

Goose wrote:There is a guy who has $1000 on the longest price head to head option each round and apparently he beats the TAB every year.
Interesting. That's kind of what I do, on a much smaller scale.

Each week I put at least one $10 bet on the best value head-to-head odds of the round, over $2.00. I don't think there is much point betting on odds below $2.00, unless you have a strong opinion about a game, because the margin is so small.

I started doing this because I got sick of picking good upsets during footy tipping and not having anything riding on it. Even in a bad year I tip at around 65%, so I should have an overall advantage against random results.

I started with seed $50 and am currently up to $120, with two bets pending (Tigers over Souths @ $4.00 and Tigers to make the 8 @ $3.25). It's not huge amounts of money, but it's fun and I have more than doubled my stake so far.

I get a little less than half my bets wrong, but because I stick to > $2.00, every win more than doubles my outlay and covers the losses.

And when Tigers win more than they lose, I tend to do the same!


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Flippedy
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Post by Flippedy » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 5:23 pm

I suppose since, in recent weeks, we could only beat the last placed team by 2 and the second last placed team by 3 points, with a full strength side, than those odds would probably be about right - especially with how crucial Farah and Woods are to the side.

That said, the bookies have not taken into account the fact that this team, consistently, tends to play a whole lot better against the top sides, often coming away with a win or near win, whilst it still struggles to beat the weaker sides. It's an annoying trait, especially for us fans, who I'm sure would love to see our side rack up a decent F/A when playing the teams we should be smashing, but unfortunately it rarely works out that way.
Sooner or later, next year has to be this year - Ricksen

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Post by tig_prmz » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 5:34 pm

the only floggings we got was the first round against dragons and against the warriors where we could barely put 13 on the field.

we've been competitive in all other games.
My Round 1 Team 2018

1. lolo 2. noffa 3. suli 4. milne 5. fonua
6. reynolds 7. brooks
8. packer 9. ET 10. Twal
11. McQuen 12. Lawrence 13. Eiso
14. Matulino 15. McIllwrick 16. Sue 17. Aloiai
18. Marsters 19. Benji 20. Grant 21. K Naiqama
Next: Liddle, MCK, Felise, MWZ, Thompson, Rochow, Gamble

happy tiger
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Post by happy tiger » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 6:01 pm

Someone put $5000 on the Tigers to win the premiership @ $26 after they heard that Tedesco was staying

That's confidence

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TJL
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Post by TJL » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 6:05 pm

I wouldn't bet on them this week, the bench looks too light on to me and I don't like Luani at all. Therefore, the odds quoted would be about right.

BTW, I used to work for Centrebet a few years ago so I know how the system works - betting is a mug's game.


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Post by tig_prmz » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 6:07 pm

happy tiger wrote:Someone put $5000 on the Tigers to win the premiership @ $26 after they heard that Tedesco was staying

That's confidence
that's really crap odds.. $26. what's roosters/rabbits etc.. $4? almost 12 teams in the race and just $4 for a punt to win the big one is crap odds.
My Round 1 Team 2018

1. lolo 2. noffa 3. suli 4. milne 5. fonua
6. reynolds 7. brooks
8. packer 9. ET 10. Twal
11. McQuen 12. Lawrence 13. Eiso
14. Matulino 15. McIllwrick 16. Sue 17. Aloiai
18. Marsters 19. Benji 20. Grant 21. K Naiqama
Next: Liddle, MCK, Felise, MWZ, Thompson, Rochow, Gamble

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foreveratiger
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Post by foreveratiger » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 6:36 pm

Issac Luke really worries me , if we can limit his metres around dummy half we will go a long way in winning , he always tear us apart .
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.

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NJLM78
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Post by NJLM78 » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 6:54 pm

We always perform better as underdogs. Hope we keep drifting out further!

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foreveratiger
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Post by foreveratiger » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 7:11 pm

happy tiger wrote:Someone put $5000 on the Tigers to win the premiership @ $26 after they heard that Tedesco was staying

That's confidence
he must have $$$$$$ to throw away , not saying we are no hope but that is some serious money . I hope he gets it .
I recall in 2005 my dad said to me at the beginning of the year " what you reckon we put $100 bux each on Tigers to win the GF this year "? I said your kidding dad we haven't made the semis in 15 years and you want to put it on us winning it lolol!!!!
we were 80/1 at the time he asked , he has reminded me from time to time
That was the year someone won 1 million dollars , he put it on the Swans and Tigers as a Quaddie Win .
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.

tgrboy
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Post by tgrboy » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 7:15 pm

Here's my Bet, I will be watching a replay on Friday night of round 3 and praying for the same result!!

Posted using RoarFEED V.4

happy tiger
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Post by happy tiger » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 7:15 pm

Well we are currently @ $17 so the $26 sounded pretty juicy no doubt

formerguest
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Post by formerguest » Wed 11 Jun, 2014 7:39 pm

tgrboy wrote:Here's my Bet, I will be watching a replay on Friday night of round 3 and praying for the same result!!

Posted using RoarFEED V.4
We were probably at similar odds for that game, but we got the win.

Wish Gavet was playing, particularly as he seems to lift Taupau. Oh well, not to be. We need a big game from Keefy, and I think that he will deliver come Friday.

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Post by innsaneink » Sat 14 Jun, 2014 9:27 am

Odds were about right

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GNR4LIFE
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Post by GNR4LIFE » Sat 14 Jun, 2014 9:32 am

What was that you were saying about them showing no respect op?

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Post by pHyR3 » Sat 14 Jun, 2014 9:47 am

still got my tenner on us from preseason. $700 if we win :D Also $200 if Warriors or Panthers win which isn't looking too bad right now.
''Everybody talks about their four brothers, we have 17 here so we don't really care about them."

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