The J(uro) Curve

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tig_prmz
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by tig_prmz » Tue 26 Jun, 2018 1:33 pm

first time we are lower than average this year
My Round 1 Team 2018

1. lolo 2. noffa 3. suli 4. milne 5. fonua
6. reynolds 7. brooks
8. packer 9. ET 10. Twal
11. McQuen 12. Lawrence 13. Eiso
14. Matulino 15. McIllwrick 16. Sue 17. Aloiai
18. Marsters 19. Benji 20. Grant 21. K Naiqama
Next: Liddle, MCK, Felise, MWZ, Thompson, Rochow, Gamble


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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 09 Jul, 2018 9:31 am

The J-Curve took its bye week a week early. It may need to take some more weeks off since it is looking very sick...

Image

Key numbers after 16 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 44%, Rabbitohs are 28%, we are the 7th team to reach 0.00%)
- 0.5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 90%, Rabbitohs are 84%, Knights and Sea Eagles join 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 99.8%, Rabbitohs are 99.7%, Eels are 0.01%)
- 16% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 95%, Cowboys are 78%, Panthers join 2 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.5% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 56%, Cowboys are 18%, Broncos and Sharks join 6 teams on 0.00%)

Due to the wins by the Broncos and Raiders, our chances didn't improve with the bye.

Key numbers after 17 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Rabbitohs are 31%, Dragons are 29%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons and Rabbitohs are 82%, Titans join 5 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 99.6%, Rabbitohs are 99.5%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 94%, Cowboys are 76%, 3 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 53%, Bulldogs are 18%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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steve-o
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Post by steve-o » Mon 09 Jul, 2018 9:35 am

Thanks Juro. Depressing reading. Classic tigers
Year of last finals appearance:
2018 - Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Panthers, Broncos, Dragons, Warriors
2017 - Eels, Sea Eagles, Cowboys
2016 - Raiders, Bulldogs, Titans
2013 - Knights
2011 - Tigers

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Post by happy tiger » Mon 09 Jul, 2018 11:37 am

mike wrote:
Fri 22 Jun, 2018 3:19 pm
Juro wrote:
Fri 22 Jun, 2018 2:13 pm
mike wrote:
Fri 22 Jun, 2018 1:55 pm
Juro wrote:
Fri 22 Jun, 2018 8:13 am
How painful was it to watch the second half on Sunday? All the hard work of the first month evaporated in 40 minutes of pure bilge. Looking at the curve, it clearly shows the damage caused to our season. 31%...

Image

Key numbers after 15 rounds:
- 0.0% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 38%, Rabbitohs are 23%, Knights join 5 teams on 0.00%)
- 2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 82%, Rabbitohs are 75%, Bulldogs and Cowboys join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons and Rabbitohs are 99%, Eels are 0.5%)
- 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 89%, Bulldogs are 78%, Dragons and Rabbitohs are 0.00%)
- 0.3% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 42%, Bulldogs are 24%, 6 teams are on 0.00%)
Love your work. Is it possible to put 2005 in there as a reference? It would be good to compare with our only winning season.
Would you believe that we are still ahead of where we were in 2005?
Image
Of course, 26 June (my birthday) was the day that we started our amazing run in 2005. That was also the day that I first joined the Wests Tigers Forum. I still remember listening to that game on the radio, driving home from my parents' house.
Thanks so much. There is still hope. That’s a pretty special memory.
If only Marshall and Farah were 13 years younger

We will still be making those comparisons in 2049

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Tweed Tiger
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Post by Tweed Tiger » Tue 10 Jul, 2018 9:37 pm

Wonder when the last time we had a win streak longer than the longest loss streak for that season.


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Juro
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Post by Juro » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 9:58 am

Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 10 Jul, 2018 9:37 pm
Wonder when the last time we had a win streak longer than the longest loss streak for that season.
Here is a list of longest streaks by year:
2017: W=1, L=7
2016: W=3, L=6
2015: W=2, L=5
2014: W=3, L=6
2013: W=2, L=7
2012: W=7, L=5

Wow, that says so much...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Tweed Tiger
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Post by Tweed Tiger » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 10:07 am

Juro wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 9:58 am
Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 10 Jul, 2018 9:37 pm
Wonder when the last time we had a win streak longer than the longest loss streak for that season.
Here is a list of longest streaks by year:
2017: W=1, L=7
2016: W=3, L=6
2015: W=2, L=5
2014: W=3, L=6
2013: W=2, L=7
2012: W=7, L=5

Wow, that says so much...
Cheers had a feeling it wouldn't be PG rated

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Post by happy tiger » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 11:16 am

Juro wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 9:58 am
Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 10 Jul, 2018 9:37 pm
Wonder when the last time we had a win streak longer than the longest loss streak for that season.
Here is a list of longest streaks by year:
2017: W=1, L=7
2016: W=3, L=6
2015: W=2, L=5
2014: W=3, L=6
2013: W=2, L=7
2012: W=7, L=5

Wow, that says so much...
Scariest thing is we probably have the worst losing streaks most seasons bar Newcastle

Win streaks in 2018 , shouldn't it be 3 games ??

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Post by Geo. » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 12:18 pm

The 2017 1 game winning streaks were good...
Wests Tigers don't need a Coach.. The playing group has taken over..

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Post by Tweed Tiger » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 1:58 pm

Geo. wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 12:18 pm
The 2017 1 game winning streaks were good...
As they say we were just taking it one week at a time..

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Post by happy tiger » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 2:09 pm

Tweed Tiger wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 1:58 pm
Geo. wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 12:18 pm
The 2017 1 game winning streaks were good...
As they say we were just taking it one week at a time..
Look at the positives , we kept our winning streak against the Bye going

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 2:43 pm

Juro wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 9:58 am
Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 10 Jul, 2018 9:37 pm
Wonder when the last time we had a win streak longer than the longest loss streak for that season.
Here is a list of longest streaks by year:
2017: W=1, L=7
2016: W=3, L=6
2015: W=2, L=5
2014: W=3, L=6
2013: W=2, L=7
2012: W=7, L=5

Wow, that says so much...
We can really pull off a losing streak. It’s like we lose one and give up for the next few weeks. We would have had at least a 3 game losing streak in every season.

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 4:15 pm

Okay, here are some more stats which are likely to depress...

We have been on a 1 week losing streak 112 times in our history, dating back to 2000. Of these streaks, this has continued to a 2 week losing streak 68 times. That translates to a 61% chance of losing following a 1 week losing streak.

If we were to continue this, our chances of losing to extend a streak are:
- 1 game: 61%
- 2 games: 49%
- 3 games: 73%
- 4 games: 54%
- 5 games: 54%
- 6 games: 29%
- 7 games: 0%
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Tweed Tiger » Wed 11 Jul, 2018 4:25 pm

Juro wrote:
Wed 11 Jul, 2018 4:15 pm
Okay, here are some more stats which are likely to depress...

We have been on a 1 week losing streak 112 times in our history, dating back to 2000. Of these streaks, this has continued to a 2 week losing streak 68 times. That translates to a 61% chance of losing following a 1 week losing streak.

If we were to continue this, our chances of losing to extend a streak are:
- 1 game: 61%
- 2 games: 49%
- 3 games: 73%
- 4 games: 54%
- 5 games: 54%
- 6 games: 29%
- 7 games: 0%
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Post by Juro » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm

An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%. This shows how important other results are to our chances. A big win would do wonders for our F/A and the curve as well...

Image

Key numbers after 18 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Rabbitohs are 45%, Storm are 22%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of finishing in top 4 (Rabbitohs are 89%, Storm are 73%, 5 teams are on 0.00%)
- 20% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs are 99.8%, Storm are 99%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 5% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 97%, Cowboys are 86%, Roosters, Sharks, Storm and Warriors join 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 54%, Cowboys are 19%, Raiders join 8 teams on 0.00%)

With there being such a large divide between the top and bottom 8 this year, it is interesting to note that even though we are in 10th place (equal 9th if you prefer), we are only marginally above where we were in 2004, when we were in 12th place.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 8:27 pm

Really need the Panthers to help us out on Friday. A win to the Broncos and a loss on Saturday would surely drop us below 5%

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Post by tigertye » Wed 18 Jul, 2018 10:22 pm

I was only thinking today about how many games we’ve lost this year within the final minutes of a game or by a very small margin.

- Loss to Broncos by dodgy penalty goal in extra time.
- Loss to Knights in final minute by 2 points
- Loss to Eels by 2 points
- Loss to Roosters by 2 points

That’s 8 competition points lost because of a total of 8 points.

We could’ve potentially been on 26 points and equal 2nd on the ladder. Just goes to show what a few close losses can do to your season. Also shows the value in a quality goalkicker in your side.

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Post by ryanda01 » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:33 am

Juro wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm
An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%.
Soooooooooooooo has the curve begun its upward trajectory to 100% yet?

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