The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:49 am

ryanda01 wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:33 am
Juro wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm
An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%.
Soooooooooooooo has the curve begun its upward trajectory to 100% yet?
Heading in the right direction, but still nowhere near your final target. I'll see whether I can get it posted today, just for you...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by foreveratiger » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 8:26 am

Even though the next 2 weeks on paper looks very favourable for us , you'd be saying Win vs Bulldogs....Win vs Knights but we just seem to be complacent when we are favourites to Win and these are the games i hate cause your Banking on 4 Competition points but when we loose your left with your head scratching.
Let's hope we turn up and respect our opponents if not we could get our pants pulled down.
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.

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Post by TigerTiger » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 9:01 am

foreveratiger wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 8:26 am
Even though the next 2 weeks on paper looks very favourable for us , you'd be saying Win vs Bulldogs....Win vs Knights but we just seem to be complacent when we are favourites to Win and these are the games i hate cause your Banking on 4 Competition points but when we loose your left with your head scratching.
Let's hope we turn up and respect our opponents if not we could get our pants pulled down.
our pants pulled down AGAIN, you're absolutely right.

We seem to be the giant killers, (beating the top 4 teams), the minnow crushers, (mostly beating the bottom 4 teams), and the medium crumblers (losing most of the games to the middle teams).
A one eyed supporter, mostly :crazy, always :sign:

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Post by Juro » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 4:35 pm

Okay, this post is only for ryanda01. Everyone else can read it tomorrow like normal...

A bit like last week, we get the win, but our % only improves marginally, up to 27%. The bloody Broncos flogging the Panthers didn't help our chances. Thank goodness the Raiders lost, so we have jumped them.

Image
Key numbers after 19 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 30% (+8%)
-- Rabbitohs are 27% (-18%)
-- Dragons are 25% (+9%)
-- Roosters are 10% (+6%)
-- Sharks are 4% (+1%)
-- Panthers are 1% (-4%)
-- Broncos are 0.7% (+0.3%)
-- Warriors are 0.6% (-2%)
-- Raiders join the rest on 0.00%

- 0.5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 82%, Dragons are 81%, Rabbitohs are 80%, Knights join 5 teams on 0.00%)
- 27% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 99.9%, Dragons and Rabbitohs are 99.7%, Bulldogs, Cowboys and Sea Eagles join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 92%, Bulldogs and Cowboys are 90%, Broncos join 7 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 35% (-19%)
-- Cowboys are 27% (+8%)
-- Bulldogs are 23% (+5%)
-- Sea Eagles are 10% (+5%)
-- Titans are 4% (+1%)
-- Knights are 0.04% (-0.3%)

So we are out of the running for the spoon. At least we can cross that off our list. Compared to other seasons, this ranks as our equal 4th fastest achievement of this.
1. 2010 - Round 7* (thanks to the cheating Storm)
=2. 2005 - Round 18
=2. 2006 - Round 18
=4. 2012 - Round 19
=4. 2018 - Round 19

Of course, I should note that we only have 25 rounds this year...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 4:47 pm

An up swing is an up swing. Next two weeks are vital, we are still a long shot at the moment but if you can win the next two and put some points on we will be right in it. Especially if a few above us lose at least 1. Thanks for the hard work Juro


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Post by ryanda01 » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 5:09 pm

Juro wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:49 am
ryanda01 wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:33 am
Juro wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm
An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%.
Soooooooooooooo has the curve begun its upward trajectory to 100% yet?
Heading in the right direction, but still nowhere near your final target. I'll see whether I can get it posted today, just for you...
<start-love-heart.gif>

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Post by Juro » Tue 31 Jul, 2018 9:03 am

Why isn't anyone chasing the latest curve update this week? Oh yeah, now I remember...

While our loss was painful (both to watch and for our finals chances), the story is not over yet. We still have a 17% chance of making the finals.

Image

Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 44% (+14%)
-- Rabbitohs are 32% (+5%)
-- Roosters are 15% (+3%)
-- Dragons are 7% (-17%)
-- Panthers are 1% (+0.3%)
-- Sharks are 0.8% (-3%)
-- Broncos are 0.7% (-0.05%)
-- Warriors are 0.03% (-0.5%)

- 0.02% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 92%, Rabbitohs are 88%, Roosters are 75%, Raiders join 6 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are the first team to reach 100.0%, Rabbitohs are 99.99%, Roosters are 99.9%, Dragons are 99.8%, 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 2% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 98%, Bulldogs and Cowboys are 86%, Sea Eagles are 85%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 54% (+19%)
-- Cowboys are 18% (-9%)
-- Bulldogs are 12% (-12%)
-- Sea Eagles are 14% (+4%)
-- Titans are 2% (-2%)
-- Knights are 0.04% (-)

And, just to show again how painful that loss was, if we had managed to win by 1 point, we would have been sitting on 38%. If we had won by 30, we would have been on 42%.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by formerguest » Tue 31 Jul, 2018 10:29 am

Depressing yet again!

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Tue 07 Aug, 2018 8:16 am

Yes, we won, but yet again, other results did not help us. Warriors beat the Dragons, Panthers beat the Raiders. Sure, Broncos and Sharks lost but they are too far in front to really make a difference.

But still, there is hope. Our chances improved, up to 24%.
Image
Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Rabbitohs are 48% (+16%)
-- Roosters are 26% (+11%)
-- Storm are 22% (-22%)
-- Dragons are 2% (-5%)
-- Panthers are 2% (+1%)
-- Sharks are 0.1% (-0.7%)
-- Broncos are 0.02% (-0.7%)
-- Warriors are 0.01% (-0.02%)

- 0.01% chance of finishing in top 4 (Rabbitohs are 97%, Roosters are 90%, Storm are 89%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs and Roosters join the Storm on 100.0%, Titans join 4 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 95%, Cowboys are 94%, Sea Eagles are 73%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 43% (-12%)
-- Cowboys are 37% (+19%)
-- Bulldogs are 6% (-5%)
-- Sea Eagles are 10% (-4%)
-- Titans are 4% (+2%)
-- Knights are 0.08% (+0.04%)

And, just to show again how painful that Bulldogs loss was, if we had managed to win by 1 point, we would have been sitting on 47%. If we had won by 30, we would have been on 56%.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Tue 14 Aug, 2018 7:49 am

Another win, bringing us closer to possibly making the finals, but also one less round to narrow the gap. It is an up-hill battle, and one slip would be our last. Our chances improved only marginally, up to 30%.
Image
Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Roosters are 47% (+21%)
-- Rabbitohs are 33% (-15%)
-- Storm are 16% (-6%)
-- Panthers are 4% (+2%)
-- Dragons are 0.2% (-2%)
-- Sharks are 0.1% (+0.06%)
-- Warriors are 0.04% (+0.03%)
-- Broncos are 0.00% (-0.02%)

- 0.02% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 98%, Rabbitohs are 97%, Storm are 83%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 30% chance of finishing in top 8
-- Roosters, Rabbitohs and Storm are on 100% (-)
-- Panthers are 99.96% (+0.4%)
-- Sharks are 98% (+3%)
-- Dragons are 98% (-1%)
-- Warriors are 95% (+5%)
-- Broncos are 78% (-12%)
-- We are 30% (+6%)
-- Raiders are 0.00% (-1.5%)
-- The rest are 0.00% (-)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Cowboys are 86%, Eels are 85%, Bulldogs are 83%, and we join 8 teams on 0.00%)

- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Cowboys are 35% (-1%)
-- Eels are 28% (-15%)
-- Bulldogs are 18% (+11%)
-- Titans are 12% (+8%)
-- Sea Eagles are 6% (-4%)
-- Knights are 0.8% (+0.7%)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Tue 21 Aug, 2018 7:18 am

I said last week that one slip would be our last. And while we did slip, somehow we still have a small chance of making the finals still. If we win our last 2 games, and either the Warriors or Broncos lose their 2 games, it could happen. Yes, a mathematical chance, but that is what the model is all about, right?

7% chance...
Image
Key numbers after 23 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 47% (+31%)
-- Roosters are 34% (-13%)
-- Rabbitohs are 17% (-16%)
-- Panthers are 1% (-3%)
-- Dragons are 0.6% (+0.3%)
-- Sharks are 0.3% (+0.2%)
-- Warriors are 0.00% (-0.04%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4
-- Roosters are 97% (-1%)
-- Storm are 96% (+12%)
-- Rabbitohs are 92% (-5%)
-- Dragons are 43% (+18%)
-- Panthers are 40% (-24%)
-- Sharks are 30% (+12%)
-- Warriors are 1% (-12%)
-- Broncos are 1% (-)
-- We are the 9th team to reach 0.00%

- 7% chance of finishing in top 8
-- Roosters, Rabbitohs and Storm are on 100% (-)
-- Panthers are 100% (+0.04%)
-- Sharks and Dragons are 100% (+2%)
-- Broncos are 97% (+18%)
-- Warriors are 96% (+2%)
-- We are 7% (-23%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4
-- Eels are 98% (+12%)
-- Cowboys are 97% (+11%)
-- Sea Eagles are 80% (+26%)
-- Bulldogs are 74% (-9%)
-- Titans are 42% (-18%)
-- Knights are 8% (-18%)
-- Raiders are 0.3% (-6%)


- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Cowboys are 49% (+14%)
-- Eels are 41% (+13%)
-- Sea Eagles are 6% (-)
-- Bulldogs are 3% (-14%)
-- Titans are 0.00% (-12%)
-- Knights are 0.00% (-0.8%)

It is amazing that with only 2 rounds to play, no team has locked in either a top 4 or bottom 4 position yet. That is a first for all the years I've analysed (going back to 2000). There is plenty of jockeying for the top and the bottom, even if the middle is almost all sorted.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Wed 29 Aug, 2018 8:21 am

And so another season comes to a close. A season that had a mixture of regret, throwing away fantastic opportunities, and yet also a season that gives hope for the future. While we didn't make the finals, we did a lot better than all the experts thought we would. What does 2019 hold for us?

Image

Key numbers after 23 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 91% (+43%)
-- Roosters are 9% (-25%)
-- Rabbitohs are 0.3% (-17%)
-- Sharks are 0.02% (-0.3%)
-- Panthers are 0.00% (-1%)
-- Dragons are 0.00% (-0.6%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4
-- Storm are 100.00% (+4%)
-- Roosters are 99.99% (+3%)
-- Rabbitohs are 97% (+5%)
-- Sharks are 88% (+57%)
-- Panthers are 9% (-30%)
-- Dragons are 4% (-40%)
-- Broncos are 0.9% (-0.1%)
-- Warriors are 0.7% (-0.5%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 8
-- Everyone above us are on 100%
-- Everyone below us are on 0%

- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4
-- Eels are 100.00% (+2%)
-- Sea Eagles are 99.5% (+20%)
-- Cowboys are 95% (-2%)
-- Titans are 62% (+20%)
-- Bulldogs are 30% (-44%)
-- Knights are 13% (+5%)
-- Raiders are 0.00% (-0.3%)

- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 96% (+55%)
-- Sea Eagles are 3% (-3%)
-- Cowboys are 0.7% (-48%)
-- Bulldogs are 0.00% (-3%)

While our win on Thursday night gave us a glimmer of hope, the other games didn't go our way. If the Warriors had lost by 1 point, we would have still had a 6% chance. If the Broncos had lost by 1 point, it would have been 3%. And then we would have had to beat the Rabbitohs...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Russell » Wed 29 Aug, 2018 8:50 am

Juro - we still have to beat the Rabbitohs - just because they are scum.

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Post by beachtiger » Wed 29 Aug, 2018 9:21 am

Juro wrote:
Wed 29 Aug, 2018 8:21 am
And so another season comes to a close. A season that had a mixture of regret, throwing away fantastic opportunities, and yet also a season that gives hope for the future. While we didn't make the finals, we did a lot better than all the experts thought we would. What does 2019 hold for us?

Image

Key numbers after 23 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 91% (+43%)
-- Roosters are 9% (-25%)
-- Rabbitohs are 0.3% (-17%)
-- Sharks are 0.02% (-0.3%)
-- Panthers are 0.00% (-1%)
-- Dragons are 0.00% (-0.6%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4
-- Storm are 100.00% (+4%)
-- Roosters are 99.99% (+3%)
-- Rabbitohs are 97% (+5%)
-- Sharks are 88% (+57%)
-- Panthers are 9% (-30%)
-- Dragons are 4% (-40%)
-- Broncos are 0.9% (-0.1%)
-- Warriors are 0.7% (-0.5%)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 8
-- Everyone above us are on 100%
-- Everyone below us are on 0%

- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4
-- Eels are 100.00% (+2%)
-- Sea Eagles are 99.5% (+20%)
-- Cowboys are 95% (-2%)
-- Titans are 62% (+20%)
-- Bulldogs are 30% (-44%)
-- Knights are 13% (+5%)
-- Raiders are 0.00% (-0.3%)

- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 96% (+55%)
-- Sea Eagles are 3% (-3%)
-- Cowboys are 0.7% (-48%)
-- Bulldogs are 0.00% (-3%)

While our win on Thursday night gave us a glimmer of hope, the other games didn't go our way. If the Warriors had lost by 1 point, we would have still had a 6% chance. If the Broncos had lost by 1 point, it would have been 3%. And then we would have had to beat the Rabbitohs...
It's always a Love / Hate relationship with your topic Juro, love the work you put in and the info but typically hate the inevitable end of season result!!

Thanks for doing this again for us mate, like many others I really appreciate it!!

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Post by Juro » Tue 04 Sep, 2018 8:29 am

Now that the regular season has come to a close, it's time to look back at how it all panned out. Not just for us, but for all teams. Let's start at the bottom...

LAST PLACE
Of course, the Eels were the most likely team to pick up the spoon, for most of the year. They were the most likely team for 21 rounds, only missing out on Rounds 1, 2, 22 and 23. They were at their least likely (6%) before the season started.
Image
But there were a few other teams that were still a chance, for almost all of the season. Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:

1. Eels: 100% (Round 25)
2. Cowboys: 49% (Round 23)
3. Bulldogs: 24% (Round 15)
4. Sea Eagles: 19% (Round 9)
5. Raiders: 18% (Round 4)
6. Titans: 17% (Round 10)
7. Rabbitohs: 11% (Round 2)
8. Sharks: 11% (Round 2)
9. Broncos: 9% (Round 1)
10. Roosters: 8% (Round 1)
11. Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, Wests Tigers: 6% (Season start)

Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1. Dragons: Round 9
2. Panthers: Round 11
3. Warriors: Round 12
4. Rabbitohs, Rooster, Sharks: Round 14
7. Storm: Round 15
8. Broncos: Round 16
9. Raiders: Round 18
10. Wests Tigers: Round 19
11. Titans: Round 23
12. Bulldogs: Round 24
13. Cowboys, Sea Eagles: Round 25

I will continue my analysis next week.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Harvey » Tue 04 Sep, 2018 5:21 pm

This should be the Juro cliff. Inevitably towards the end of the season there’s a massive plunge in our chances

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Post by Juro » Wed 05 Sep, 2018 7:04 am

Harvey wrote:
Tue 04 Sep, 2018 5:21 pm
This should be the Juro cliff. Inevitably towards the end of the season there’s a massive plunge in our chances
One year it will surprise us all. I just hope I haven't topped myself before that year comes along...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by happy tiger » Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:53 am

I'm just surprised that the curve hasn't left us to be involved in Finals footy

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