The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:49 am

ryanda01 wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:33 am
Juro wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm
An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%.
Soooooooooooooo has the curve begun its upward trajectory to 100% yet?
Heading in the right direction, but still nowhere near your final target. I'll see whether I can get it posted today, just for you...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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foreveratiger
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Post by foreveratiger » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 8:26 am

Even though the next 2 weeks on paper looks very favourable for us , you'd be saying Win vs Bulldogs....Win vs Knights but we just seem to be complacent when we are favourites to Win and these are the games i hate cause your Banking on 4 Competition points but when we loose your left with your head scratching.
Let's hope we turn up and respect our opponents if not we could get our pants pulled down.
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.

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Post by TigerTiger » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 9:01 am

foreveratiger wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 8:26 am
Even though the next 2 weeks on paper looks very favourable for us , you'd be saying Win vs Bulldogs....Win vs Knights but we just seem to be complacent when we are favourites to Win and these are the games i hate cause your Banking on 4 Competition points but when we loose your left with your head scratching.
Let's hope we turn up and respect our opponents if not we could get our pants pulled down.
our pants pulled down AGAIN, you're absolutely right.

We seem to be the giant killers, (beating the top 4 teams), the minnow crushers, (mostly beating the bottom 4 teams), and the medium crumblers (losing most of the games to the middle teams).
A one eyed supporter, mostly :crazy, always :sign:

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 4:35 pm

Okay, this post is only for ryanda01. Everyone else can read it tomorrow like normal...

A bit like last week, we get the win, but our % only improves marginally, up to 27%. The bloody Broncos flogging the Panthers didn't help our chances. Thank goodness the Raiders lost, so we have jumped them.

Image
Key numbers after 19 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 30% (+8%)
-- Rabbitohs are 27% (-18%)
-- Dragons are 25% (+9%)
-- Roosters are 10% (+6%)
-- Sharks are 4% (+1%)
-- Panthers are 1% (-4%)
-- Broncos are 0.7% (+0.3%)
-- Warriors are 0.6% (-2%)
-- Raiders join the rest on 0.00%

- 0.5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 82%, Dragons are 81%, Rabbitohs are 80%, Knights join 5 teams on 0.00%)
- 27% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 99.9%, Dragons and Rabbitohs are 99.7%, Bulldogs, Cowboys and Sea Eagles join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 92%, Bulldogs and Cowboys are 90%, Broncos join 7 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 35% (-19%)
-- Cowboys are 27% (+8%)
-- Bulldogs are 23% (+5%)
-- Sea Eagles are 10% (+5%)
-- Titans are 4% (+1%)
-- Knights are 0.04% (-0.3%)

So we are out of the running for the spoon. At least we can cross that off our list. Compared to other seasons, this ranks as our equal 4th fastest achievement of this.
1. 2010 - Round 7* (thanks to the cheating Storm)
=2. 2005 - Round 18
=2. 2006 - Round 18
=4. 2012 - Round 19
=4. 2018 - Round 19

Of course, I should note that we only have 25 rounds this year...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 4:47 pm

An up swing is an up swing. Next two weeks are vital, we are still a long shot at the moment but if you can win the next two and put some points on we will be right in it. Especially if a few above us lose at least 1. Thanks for the hard work Juro


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Post by ryanda01 » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 5:09 pm

Juro wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:49 am
ryanda01 wrote:
Mon 23 Jul, 2018 7:33 am
Juro wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 4:08 pm
An eventual win causes the curve to curve, if only fractionally. Despite the win, our chances of finals football have only gone up 3 points, from 17% to 20%.
Soooooooooooooo has the curve begun its upward trajectory to 100% yet?
Heading in the right direction, but still nowhere near your final target. I'll see whether I can get it posted today, just for you...
<start-love-heart.gif>

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Tue 31 Jul, 2018 9:03 am

Why isn't anyone chasing the latest curve update this week? Oh yeah, now I remember...

While our loss was painful (both to watch and for our finals chances), the story is not over yet. We still have a 17% chance of making the finals.

Image

Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Storm are 44% (+14%)
-- Rabbitohs are 32% (+5%)
-- Roosters are 15% (+3%)
-- Dragons are 7% (-17%)
-- Panthers are 1% (+0.3%)
-- Sharks are 0.8% (-3%)
-- Broncos are 0.7% (-0.05%)
-- Warriors are 0.03% (-0.5%)

- 0.02% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 92%, Rabbitohs are 88%, Roosters are 75%, Raiders join 6 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are the first team to reach 100.0%, Rabbitohs are 99.99%, Roosters are 99.9%, Dragons are 99.8%, 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 2% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 98%, Bulldogs and Cowboys are 86%, Sea Eagles are 85%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 54% (+19%)
-- Cowboys are 18% (-9%)
-- Bulldogs are 12% (-12%)
-- Sea Eagles are 14% (+4%)
-- Titans are 2% (-2%)
-- Knights are 0.04% (-)

And, just to show again how painful that loss was, if we had managed to win by 1 point, we would have been sitting on 38%. If we had won by 30, we would have been on 42%.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by formerguest » Tue 31 Jul, 2018 10:29 am

Depressing yet again!

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Tue 07 Aug, 2018 8:16 am

Yes, we won, but yet again, other results did not help us. Warriors beat the Dragons, Panthers beat the Raiders. Sure, Broncos and Sharks lost but they are too far in front to really make a difference.

But still, there is hope. Our chances improved, up to 24%.
Image
Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Rabbitohs are 48% (+16%)
-- Roosters are 26% (+11%)
-- Storm are 22% (-22%)
-- Dragons are 2% (-5%)
-- Panthers are 2% (+1%)
-- Sharks are 0.1% (-0.7%)
-- Broncos are 0.02% (-0.7%)
-- Warriors are 0.01% (-0.02%)

- 0.01% chance of finishing in top 4 (Rabbitohs are 97%, Roosters are 90%, Storm are 89%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs and Roosters join the Storm on 100.0%, Titans join 4 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 95%, Cowboys are 94%, Sea Eagles are 73%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Eels are 43% (-12%)
-- Cowboys are 37% (+19%)
-- Bulldogs are 6% (-5%)
-- Sea Eagles are 10% (-4%)
-- Titans are 4% (+2%)
-- Knights are 0.08% (+0.04%)

And, just to show again how painful that Bulldogs loss was, if we had managed to win by 1 point, we would have been sitting on 47%. If we had won by 30, we would have been on 56%.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Tue 14 Aug, 2018 7:49 am

Another win, bringing us closer to possibly making the finals, but also one less round to narrow the gap. It is an up-hill battle, and one slip would be our last. Our chances improved only marginally, up to 30%.
Image
Key numbers after 20 rounds:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership
-- Roosters are 47% (+21%)
-- Rabbitohs are 33% (-15%)
-- Storm are 16% (-6%)
-- Panthers are 4% (+2%)
-- Dragons are 0.2% (-2%)
-- Sharks are 0.1% (+0.06%)
-- Warriors are 0.04% (+0.03%)
-- Broncos are 0.00% (-0.02%)

- 0.02% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 98%, Rabbitohs are 97%, Storm are 83%, 7 teams are on 0.00%)
- 30% chance of finishing in top 8
-- Roosters, Rabbitohs and Storm are on 100% (-)
-- Panthers are 99.96% (+0.4%)
-- Sharks are 98% (+3%)
-- Dragons are 98% (-1%)
-- Warriors are 95% (+5%)
-- Broncos are 78% (-12%)
-- We are 30% (+6%)
-- Raiders are 0.00% (-1.5%)
-- The rest are 0.00% (-)

- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Cowboys are 86%, Eels are 85%, Bulldogs are 83%, and we join 8 teams on 0.00%)

- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
-- Cowboys are 35% (-1%)
-- Eels are 28% (-15%)
-- Bulldogs are 18% (+11%)
-- Titans are 12% (+8%)
-- Sea Eagles are 6% (-4%)
-- Knights are 0.8% (+0.7%)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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