The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 10:13 am

Now that we have a few games under our belt for the season, I think it's time for me to start looking at where we are, similar to what I did last year (but with a snazzier title).

5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, -49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?

Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.

Here is the graph of our progress to date, compared against a few of the more recent and/or interesting years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.

Image

Other key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Souths are 22%)
- 14% chance of finishing in top 4
- 8% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 15%, Panthers are 14%, Bulldogs are 13%)

Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blow-out still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.

I have tried having more complicated models, taking into account a higher chance of winning at home, but it doesn't have a significant impact on the results because most teams have a relatively even distribution of home and away games throughout the year. I've also taken into account the relative position on the table, giving an indication of relative strength, but this gives extreme results.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by happy tiger » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 10:19 am

Juro so going off you can tell us who will run 1st to 16th ,is that correct ??

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Post by Gary Bakerloo » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 10:26 am

Juro wrote:Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blow-out still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
Did not know you modeled this stochastically.

Given we are now 5 rounds into the competition would it be possible to have the data exhibit some serial correlation? This would take into account teams hitting form (and maintaining it) from period to period.

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Post by Juro » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 10:48 am

happy tiger wrote:Juro so going off you can tell us who will run 1st to 16th ,is that correct ??
In any given simulation, all teams are ranked from 1st to 16th after 26 rounds. From that, results are compiled and probabilities are determined.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 10:52 am

Gary Bakerloo wrote:
Juro wrote:Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blow-out still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
Did not know you modeled this stochastically.

Given we are now 5 rounds into the competition would it be possible to have the data exhibit some serial correlation? This would take into account teams hitting form (and maintaining it) from period to period.
I take the view that a simple model is sometimes best. Trying to build in extra complexities does not always help. I take the results simply as a guide, not gospel.

In terms of teams hitting form, each game is simulated independent of the previous results. So if it is a 50% chance of winning a game, it is a 25% chance of winning 2 games in a row, ..., 0.1% chance of winning 10 games in a row, etc.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by Shooshmeister » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 5:33 pm

UMmmmmmmm..........You are so smart, S M R T ! All i want to know is will we maqke the top 8 in 2013?

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Post by LaT » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 5:36 pm

Image
TigPies till I die!

I say, I say I resemble that remark!

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Post by Flippedy » Thu 11 Apr, 2013 8:54 pm

Juro, are you David Middleton? :lol:
Sooner or later, next year has to be this year - Ricksen

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Post by Juro » Fri 12 Apr, 2013 8:53 am

Flippedy wrote:Juro, are you David Middleton? :lol:
I'll take that. Just don't call me Tom Waterhouse!
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Post by barra » Fri 12 Apr, 2013 10:11 am

Great work Juro!

One pattern this indicates is that the team under Sheens always suffered a 4-5 game losing streak each season (sometimes more than one). Generally they got back on track after, but we know the sort of pressure that can put on the end of season result. It would be interesting to know if this is a pattern for other teams?

But far more interesting to see if a Potter coached side can avoid it!

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Post by Juro » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 5:00 pm

Another week, another loss, and the curve continues to dip. Now at 30% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 6 rounds, being only better than 2012 (19%, 1 win and 5 losses) and 2007 (28%, 1 win, 1 bye and 4 losses).

Image

Other key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 30%, Manly are 18%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Bulldogs are 18%, Warriors and Panthers are 17%)

Still plenty of time to get this graph pointing up. Bring on the Broncos!
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Swordy » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 5:05 pm

78% of statistics are made up on the spot!
Sunshine Coast resident.
Tigers fan since birth in 1969.
Fond memories of Leichhardt Oval every home game as a kid with my Dad!

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Post by Juro » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 5:41 pm

Hey, I don't make up my stats! My model may but me? Never!
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by pHyR3 » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 6:20 pm

How are we the same chance of spooning as getting in the top 4??
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Post by LCA » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 7:08 pm

Swordy wrote:78% of statistics are made up on the spot!
Like that one!

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Post by LCA » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 7:14 pm

pHyR3 wrote:How are we the same chance of spooning as getting in the top 4??
Why can't the probabilities be the same?? It's not a prediction of an outcome, just the relative likelihood of each outcome in the distribution.

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Post by tigergirlz » Thu 18 Apr, 2013 7:22 pm

Is there an injury adjustment, and does it change when the injury is to a marquee player?

Posted using RoarFEED 2013

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Post by Juro » Fri 19 Apr, 2013 6:13 am

tigergirlz wrote:Is there an injury adjustment, and does it change when the injury is to a marquee player?

Posted using RoarFEED 2013
No. 50% chance of winning each game, regardless of injuries, form, players lost to rep duties, etc.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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