The J(uro) Curve

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Chicken Faced Killa
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Mon 16 Apr, 2018 3:16 pm

Thank Juro, hopefully we can push on and you have to remodel the curve this year


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Juro
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Post by Juro » Tue 24 Apr, 2018 7:27 am

What point is a curve if it doesn't curve, right? That loss took a little bit of steam out of the team, but the good news is that if we zigzag through the rest of the season, we will still be heading in the right direction. 5 wins from 7 games puts us at 76% chance of making the finals, which was better than we were when we were 4 wins from 5 games (73%).
Image
Key results after 7 rounds:
- 11% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 26%, Warriors are 22%, Eels are 0.1%)
- 44% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 66%, Warriors are 62%, Eels are 2%)
- 76% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 89%, Warriors are 87%, Eels are 13%)
- 7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 63%, Cowboys are 45%, Dragons are 2%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 24%, Cowboys are 13%, Dragons are 0.1%)

I have checked through the history of teams being 76% or better chance of making the finals after 6 rounds. Out of the 47 instances there were only 3 teams (6%) who failed to make it:
- 2017: Dragons
- 2008: Titans
- 2006: Cowboys

And yes, this is still our best start to the season. Our previous best Round 7 chances were:
- 2000: 75%
- 2014: 74%
- 2002: 71%

We failed to make the finals in each of those years. The team needs to stay focused and get across the line!
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Tue 24 Apr, 2018 8:05 am

Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.

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Post by Sco77y » Tue 24 Apr, 2018 8:58 am

Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Tue 24 Apr, 2018 8:05 am
Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.
Like the Eels. We really need to refocus and knock this next game out. Could be another danger game for us, they’ll be high on confidence and probably won’t let us get away with what we did last time in letting them back into the game late.

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Tue 24 Apr, 2018 9:14 am

Sco77y wrote:
Tue 24 Apr, 2018 8:58 am
Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Tue 24 Apr, 2018 8:05 am
Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.
Like the Eels. We really need to refocus and knock this next game out. Could be another danger game for us, they’ll be high on confidence and probably won’t let us get away with what we did last time in letting them back into the game late.
Yep Eels, Cowboys sand Raiders all have dangerous squads that could cause trouble to a lot of teams once they get going. I think our squad has played well so far but has probably over achieved a little and need to focus and dig in every week. Starting with the eels this week to keep the curve going upwards.

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