The J(uro) Curve

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 Last post Sat 22 Sep, 2018 12:02 am

The J(uro) Curve
Now that we have a few games under our belt for the season, I think it's time for me to start looking at where we are, similar to what I did last year (but with a snazzier title).
5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, 49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?
Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.
Here is the graph of our progress to date, compared against a few of the more recent and/or interesting years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.
Other key results:
 2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Souths are 22%)
 14% chance of finishing in top 4
 8% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 15%, Panthers are 14%, Bulldogs are 13%)
Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blowout still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
I have tried having more complicated models, taking into account a higher chance of winning at home, but it doesn't have a significant impact on the results because most teams have a relatively even distribution of home and away games throughout the year. I've also taken into account the relative position on the table, giving an indication of relative strength, but this gives extreme results.
5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, 49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?
Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.
Here is the graph of our progress to date, compared against a few of the more recent and/or interesting years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.
Other key results:
 2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Souths are 22%)
 14% chance of finishing in top 4
 8% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 15%, Panthers are 14%, Bulldogs are 13%)
Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blowout still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
I have tried having more complicated models, taking into account a higher chance of winning at home, but it doesn't have a significant impact on the results because most teams have a relatively even distribution of home and away games throughout the year. I've also taken into account the relative position on the table, giving an indication of relative strength, but this gives extreme results.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Juro so going off you can tell us who will run 1st to 16th ,is that correct ??

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Did not know you modeled this stochastically.Juro wrote:Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blowout still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
Given we are now 5 rounds into the competition would it be possible to have the data exhibit some serial correlation? This would take into account teams hitting form (and maintaining it) from period to period.
In any given simulation, all teams are ranked from 1st to 16th after 26 rounds. From that, results are compiled and probabilities are determined.happy tiger wrote:Juro so going off you can tell us who will run 1st to 16th ,is that correct ??
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...
I take the view that a simple model is sometimes best. Trying to build in extra complexities does not always help. I take the results simply as a guide, not gospel.Gary Bakerloo wrote:Did not know you modeled this stochastically.Juro wrote:Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blowout still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
Given we are now 5 rounds into the competition would it be possible to have the data exhibit some serial correlation? This would take into account teams hitting form (and maintaining it) from period to period.
In terms of teams hitting form, each game is simulated independent of the previous results. So if it is a 50% chance of winning a game, it is a 25% chance of winning 2 games in a row, ..., 0.1% chance of winning 10 games in a row, etc.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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UMmmmmmmm..........You are so smart, S M R T ! All i want to know is will we maqke the top 8 in 2013?
TigPies till I die!
I say, I say I resemble that remark!
I say, I say I resemble that remark!
Juro, are you David Middleton?
Sooner or later, next year has to be this year  Ricksen
I'll take that. Just don't call me Tom Waterhouse!Flippedy wrote:Juro, are you David Middleton?
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...
Great work Juro!
One pattern this indicates is that the team under Sheens always suffered a 45 game losing streak each season (sometimes more than one). Generally they got back on track after, but we know the sort of pressure that can put on the end of season result. It would be interesting to know if this is a pattern for other teams?
But far more interesting to see if a Potter coached side can avoid it!
One pattern this indicates is that the team under Sheens always suffered a 45 game losing streak each season (sometimes more than one). Generally they got back on track after, but we know the sort of pressure that can put on the end of season result. It would be interesting to know if this is a pattern for other teams?
But far more interesting to see if a Potter coached side can avoid it!
Another week, another loss, and the curve continues to dip. Now at 30% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 6 rounds, being only better than 2012 (19%, 1 win and 5 losses) and 2007 (28%, 1 win, 1 bye and 4 losses).
Other key results:
 1% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 30%, Manly are 18%)
 9% chance of finishing in top 4
 9% chance of wooden spoon (Bulldogs are 18%, Warriors and Panthers are 17%)
Still plenty of time to get this graph pointing up. Bring on the Broncos!
Other key results:
 1% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 30%, Manly are 18%)
 9% chance of finishing in top 4
 9% chance of wooden spoon (Bulldogs are 18%, Warriors and Panthers are 17%)
Still plenty of time to get this graph pointing up. Bring on the Broncos!
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...
78% of statistics are made up on the spot!
Sunshine Coast resident.
Tigers fan since birth in 1969.
Fond memories of Leichhardt Oval every home game as a kid with my Dad!
Tigers fan since birth in 1969.
Fond memories of Leichhardt Oval every home game as a kid with my Dad!
Hey, I don't make up my stats! My model may but me? Never!
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...
How are we the same chance of spooning as getting in the top 4??
''Everybody talks about their four brothers, we have 17 here so we don't really care about them."
Like that one!Swordy wrote:78% of statistics are made up on the spot!
Why can't the probabilities be the same?? It's not a prediction of an outcome, just the relative likelihood of each outcome in the distribution.pHyR3 wrote:How are we the same chance of spooning as getting in the top 4??
 tigergirlz
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Is there an injury adjustment, and does it change when the injury is to a marquee player?
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No. 50% chance of winning each game, regardless of injuries, form, players lost to rep duties, etc.tigergirlz wrote:Is there an injury adjustment, and does it change when the injury is to a marquee player?
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I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...