The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Fri 16 Sep, 2016 9:48 am

TOP 4 (continued)
Now looking at the teams that didn't make the top 4, which teams came closest? The two teams that gave it the best shot were the Broncos and Bulldogs.

The Broncos started the season very strongly, and peaked at 79% in Round 10, then slid slowly back through the rest of the season. They still had a reasonable chance of clinching it in Round 26 but failed at the death.

The Bulldogs kept in the hunt throughout the season and steadily built their chances from Round 13 to Round 23, peaking at 78%. From there it all fell apart with them losing their last 3 games to finish 7th.

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The following teams peaked as follows:
Broncos - 79% (Round 10)
Bulldogs - 78% (Round 23)
Eels - 45% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 42% (Round 2)
Titans - 37% (Round 4)
Wests Tigers - 37% (Round 2)

Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors - 25% (season kickoff)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by Juro » Thu 22 Sep, 2016 8:15 am

Top 8
For the next installment of my 2016 wrap-up, we shift to those teams that made the finals, either as the golden children who were always on the right path, or those who scraped in at the last moment.

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This year, there were a lot of golden children, with 6 of the 8 finalists having greater than 60% chance from Round 12 onwards, and greater than 80% chance from Round 16 onwards. Only the Panthers and Titans had to struggle to make the finals, yet their chances were hovering around 40-60% for most of the season.

Of the teams who made it, their lowest chance was:
Broncos, Bulldogs, Storm - 50% (season kickoff)
Cowboys - 50% (Round 2)
Raiders - 48% (Round 10)
Sharks - 43% (Round 1)
Panthers - 32% (Round 8)
Titans - 24% (Round 9)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Wed 28 Sep, 2016 2:17 pm

I'd better get a wriggle on if I want to finish this before the Grand Final...

Top 8
Now we look at those teams that failed to make the finals (yes, that's us, again). Here you have the ones who were never in the hunt, the ones who gave a little hope before fading and those who held on for as long as they could before finally succumbing (us in our traditional role, again).

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This year, the Knights and Roosters never made it out of first gear. Parra looked like world beaters before their dodgy dealings were revealed. The Warriors held on until Round 25, and we made it all the way to Round 26 before imploding. So that makes us the best of the rest, right? Yay!?!

Of the teams who didn't make it, their highest chance was:
Eels - 78% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 70% (Round 2)
Wests Tigers - 65% (Round 2)
Warriors - 62% (Round 18)
Knights, Roosters, Sea Eagles - 50% (season kickoff)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Thu 29 Sep, 2016 1:58 pm

Bottom 4
Today I shift to the undesirables, where you want to miss out! Looking at the bottom 4, and first those who did miss out, again we feature heavily. Our 6 losses on the trot had us as a likely candidate before we resurrected our season.

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Looking at the curve though, the main story of interest is the Rabbitohs. While most other teams that avoided the dishonour steadily moved away throughout the season, it looked ever more likely that they would fall into the bottom 4. By Round 22, they had only managed to win 5 out of 20 matches. Yet they somehow won their last 4 wins to get out of jail.

So how close did everyone get?
Rabbitohs - 96% (Round 22)
Wests Tigers - 52% (Round 8)
Warriors - 46% (Round 3)
Dragons - 43% (Round 6)
Titans - 41% (Round 9)
Panthers - 37% (Round 4)
Sharks - 31% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Thu 29 Sep, 2016 2:07 pm

Bottom 4
If the Rabbitohs somehow managed to get out of jail on the last curve, the Sea Eagles were polar opposites. While they looked very likely in the first half of the season, having won 4 of their first 15 matches, they then reversed their fortunes, winning their next 4 to almost give them a chance of making the finals. However, they again reversed their fortunes, losing their last 5 matches. Bizarre...

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So bizarre was Manly's season that it is hardly worth mentioning the Eels.

Of the teams to fall to the bottom 4, they were at their lowest chance in:
Sea Eagles - 4% (Round 22)
Eels - 5% (Round 9)
Knights, Roosters - 25% (season kickoff)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by Juro » Fri 30 Sep, 2016 9:49 am

Wooden Spoon
Now we come to the final challenge. One we have flirted with occasionally but never succumbed to. Who will be last!

Of course, the Knights picked up the gong, for the second year running and the third time in their history. They had an early battle with the Roosters, then had to shortly contend with the Eels once their punishment was announced. But from Round 14 onwards, it was a one-horse race.

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Of the teams to avoid the spoon, this is when they peaked:
Eels - 52% (Round 11)
Roosters - 28% (Round 5)
Warriors - 15% (Round 3)
Wests Tigers - 15% (Round 8)
Dragons - 12% (Round 6)
Sea Eagles - 11% (Round 2)
Panthers - 11% (Round 2)
Titans - 10% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 9% (Round 9)
Sharks - 9% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 6% (season kickoff)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Fri 30 Sep, 2016 10:04 am

Wooden Spoon
So the Knights were terrible this year, with the worst win-loss record in NRL history. Only one win and one draw for the whole season. And just think, if Sims had been pinged for kicking the second ball at Rankin, they might have not got that win too... Yes, it still burns...

But how terrible were they compared to other spooners in recent history? Let's have a look at some interesting years.

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While they were spectacularly unsuccessful this year, it really wasn't all that bad. I think the Eels losing their points gave them a bit of false comfort on the curve. And the Roosters kept them company for a long time too.

But then you compare their effort against:
- the Knights 2005 season, where they lost their first 13 games before staging a late fightback, only locking in the spoon in Round 26.
- the Rabbitohs 2006 season, where they reached over 90% chance of winning the spoon by Round 16.
- and of course the Storm 2010 season, where they went from early season high-flyers to locking in the spoon in Round 7 thanks to the salary cap punishment.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by DavidDuncan » Fri 30 Sep, 2016 12:01 pm

Thanks for your efforts Juro. Enjoy reading this through the season and the end of year wrap up has been great.

Hopefully see it back next year.
Remember the past. Live in the now. Plan for the future.

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Post by Juro » Fri 30 Sep, 2016 1:22 pm

DavidDuncan wrote:Thanks for your efforts Juro. Enjoy reading this through the season and the end of year wrap up has been great.

Hopefully see it back next year.
Thanks DD. I look forward to one day doing this and having the curve turn the right direction at the end of the year. Next year may be it...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Tue 04 Apr, 2017 8:03 am

Here we go again, folks. Another year of the curve. Taylor obviously had no idea how to drive the thing. Can Cleary get it moving in the right direction???

Image

Key results:
- 0.7% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Dragons are 14%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 62%, Dragons are 47%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 86%, Dragons are 75%)
- 50% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Dragons are 8%)
- 17% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.4%, Dragons are 0.9%)

At 23% chance of making the finals, this is our worst start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 18 years. The previous worst was 26% in 2012, where we also started with a 1-4 record, but only had a -42 F/A record and were sitting 3rd last.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by jirskyr » Tue 04 Apr, 2017 8:10 am

Oh 2014 what a bitter disappointment after so much promise. UP UP UP, gradual down, PLUMMET.

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Post by Geo. » Tue 04 Apr, 2017 8:54 am

jirskyr wrote:
Tue 04 Apr, 2017 8:10 am
Oh 2014 what a bitter disappointment after so much promise. UP UP UP, gradual down, PLUMMET.
Dragongate...?
Ivan's Laws

1. You are either on the Bus or you are off..
2. The Star of the Team is the Team
3. Be the player your teammates want to play with..
Tiger Watto wrote:
Fri 03 Nov, 2017 8:07 am
Geo nailed it...

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Post by ryanda01 » Tue 04 Apr, 2017 9:23 pm

Thanks Juro; good to see the graph back again. Any chance you can fudge the figures to allow for the 'Clearly' factor? ;)

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Post by Juro » Mon 10 Apr, 2017 8:03 am

Pull up! Pull up!!

Image

Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 22%, Storm are 19%, Titans are 0.5%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 58%, Storm are 54%, Titans are 5%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 84%, Storm are 81%, Titans are 19%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 56%, Dragons are 4%, Storm are 5%)
- 12% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 20%, Dragons are 0.4%, Storm are 0.5%)

With that win, we are now at our 3rd worst start to the season (in front of 2012 (19%) and 2007 (28%).

ps I'm glad to see the back of Monday night footy. It's good to be able to do the weekend wrap on a Monday morning...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by old man tiger » Mon 10 Apr, 2017 8:24 am

Juro wrote:
Mon 10 Apr, 2017 8:03 am
Pull up! Pull up!!

Image

Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 22%, Storm are 19%, Titans are 0.5%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 58%, Storm are 54%, Titans are 5%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 84%, Storm are 81%, Titans are 19%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 56%, Dragons are 4%, Storm are 5%)
- 12% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 20%, Dragons are 0.4%, Storm are 0.5%)

With that win, we are now at our 3rd worst start to the season (in front of 2012 (19%) and 2007 (28%).

ps I'm glad to see the back of Monday night footy. It's good to be able to do the weekend wrap on a Monday morning...
Love your work.

No MNF is better for SuperCoach too.

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Post by ryanda01 » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 6:10 pm

Juro wrote:
Mon 10 Apr, 2017 8:03 am
Pull up! Pull up!!

Image

Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 22%, Storm are 19%, Titans are 0.5%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 58%, Storm are 54%, Titans are 5%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 84%, Storm are 81%, Titans are 19%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 56%, Dragons are 4%, Storm are 5%)
- 12% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 20%, Dragons are 0.4%, Storm are 0.5%)

With that win, we are now at our 3rd worst start to the season (in front of 2012 (19%) and 2007 (28%).

ps I'm glad to see the back of Monday night footy. It's good to be able to do the weekend wrap on a Monday morning...
With that loss, are we now statistically moving into uncharted territory from a worst start to a season?

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Post by Juro » Wed 19 Apr, 2017 11:07 am

Yes, with that loss, we are again into uncharted territory. We are now in our worst season to date, with the 2nd worst being 2013 where we were 25% chance of playing finals at this stage.

Image

Key results:
- 0.5% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 25%, Storm are 22%, Knights are 0.1%)
- 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 65%, Storm are 61%, Knights are 2%)
- 22% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 88%, Storm are 87%, Knights are 12%)
- 48% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 65%, Titans are 62%, Dragons are 2%)
- 13% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 24%, Titans are 22%, Dragons are 0.2%)

I've added an extra line to the graph, showing our historical average chance of making the top 8 (the dashed black line). No surprise to see it trailing down as the season goes on...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by formerguest » Wed 19 Apr, 2017 11:14 am

Oh well, we are a below average team, but with a twenty two percent chance of finals I am not giving up yet after all the crap we have had to start the season. Bring on the wet sail.

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