The J(uro) Curve

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Chicken Faced Killa
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Wed 19 Apr, 2017 1:51 pm

All it takes is to string 4 or 5 wins together and you are right back in the mix unfortunately I can't see it happening this year. I would take 2 on the trot at this stage


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Juro
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Post by Juro » Wed 26 Apr, 2017 7:46 am

A win certainly helps the curve, but for it to actually curve up (instead of zigzagging) we need 2 (or more) in a row. What is the possibility?

Image

Key results:
- 0.5% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 30%, Dragons are 18%, Knights are 0.01%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 70%, Dragons are 56%, Knights are 1%)
- 27% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 91%, Dragons are 84%, Knights are 8%)
- 40% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 72%, Titans are 54%, Storm are 1%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 32%, Titans are 15%, Storm are 0.1%)

With the win, we have moved to our 4th worst first 8 rounds in the club's history. Worse are 2013 (15%), 2003 (16%) and 2016 (17%). Yes, 3 out of our worst 4 years have been in the last 5 years in the comp.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Wed 03 May, 2017 1:34 pm

Lose win lose win lose and we zigzag our way out of the season...

Image

Key results:
- 0.2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 38%, Sharks are 11%, Knights are 0.02%)
- 4% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 78%, Dragons are 47%, Knights are 0.4%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 94%, Dragons are 79%, Knights are 4%)
- 49% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 81%, Panthers are 60%, Storm are 1%)
- 11% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 40%, Panthers are 18%, Storm are 0.01%)

This is now our 3rd worst season to date, with the worst 2 being 2013 (9%) and 2003 (16%). Our lowest point in our 2005 season was 27% in Round 15.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Tweed Tiger » Wed 03 May, 2017 4:09 pm

Really need to string a few together, its a pity we could of been 4-0 under cleary and it would look alot better.

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 3:32 pm

Welcome back to the J-curve. Before looking at what may happen in 2018, I want to cast my eye back to how 2017 unfolded (not sure this is such a good idea!)

MINOR PREMIERSHIP
The Storm were in front in this race for almost all of the season. A few other teams gave them an early fight but were never really in contention.

The Storm's chances of getting the minor premiership were at their lowest before the season started (6%). Other teams peaked (at the given Round) at:
- Dragons: 25% (7)
- Sharks: 25% (12)
- Roosters: 22% (16)
- Broncos: 19% (11)
- Cowboys: 12% (5)
- Eels: 12% (2)
- Sea Eagles: 10% (19)
- Wests Tigers: 9% (1)
- Warriors: 8% (1)
- Rabbitohs: 8% (3)
- Raiders: 6% (7)
- Bulldogs, Knights, Panthers and Titans: 6% (before season started)

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Last edited by Juro on Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by Kul » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 3:39 pm

yasss glad this is back
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Post by Juro » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 3:56 pm

TOP 4
The Storm were of course early favourites to finish in the top 4. They had reached 90% by Round 15 before reaching 100% in Round 23. The Roosters and Broncos were also always likely but only reached 100% in Round 25 and 26 respectively. The real surprise packet was the Eels, who were in all sorts of trouble early, before winning 11 of their last 13 games.

Image

Teams were at their lowest as follows:
Eels - 7% (Round 14)
Broncos - 17% (5)
Roosters and Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
Last edited by Juro on Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 4:12 pm

TOP 4
With the Eels coming from nowhere, some other team must have choked close to the line. And that team was the Sharks. They were in a strong position for most of the season, sitting above 50% from about Round 10 to Round 22. Then they lost 3 of their last 5 games, finishing the season in 5th place. The Dragons were early standouts, reaching 65% after winning 6 of their first 7 games. They could only manage another 6 wins for the rest of the season, though.

Image

Teams who didn't make the top 4 were at their highest as follows:
- Sharks: 74% (Round 21)
- Dragons: 65% (7)
- Sea Eagles: 57% (17)
- Cowboys: 54% (20)
- Wests Tigers: 31% (1)
- Rabbitohs: 31% (3)
- Raiders: 31% (7)
- Warriors: 30% (1)
- Bulldogs: 26% (7)
- Panthers: 25% (4)
- Knights and Titans: 25% (season kickoff)
Last edited by Juro on Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 4:12 pm

More to come (hopefully tomorrow)
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old man tiger
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Post by old man tiger » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 5:04 pm

Looking forward to it mate

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Post by jrtiger » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 5:05 pm

One of my favourite threads. Welcome back Juro!

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Post by Sco77y » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 5:18 pm

Thanks Juro, I'm sure this season will be looking more positive for us so far.

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Post by westy81 » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 10:09 pm

I was only thinking just the other day where the curve is this year can't wait to see the stats so far this year
GO THE TIGERS !!!!

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Post by Russell » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 10:12 pm

Thanks Juro - looking forward to the curve.

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Post by oldprop » Thu 05 Apr, 2018 11:18 pm

Looking forward to this. Love those graphs.
Need more props.

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Post by mike » Fri 06 Apr, 2018 7:36 am

Can’t wait to see this years. We might even make the finals and break your hoodoo.. :)
Western Suburbs supporter since 1960 | Balmain junior since 1967 | Wests Tigers supporter since 1999

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Fri 06 Apr, 2018 8:40 am

TOP 8
Moving on to the top 8 now, the graphs get a bit more crowded. Most teams that made the 8 were looking likely for most of the season. The Storm had reached 90% by Round 8 before reaching 100% in Round 20. The Sharks were the second team to reach 90% and stay there, doing this in Round 11.

The Eels were bouncing around 50% for the first half of the season before storming home. The Panthers though were the real late chargers, being as low as 19% after Round 17 before winning their next 7 games straight.

Image

Teams were at their lowest as follows:
- Panthers: 13% (Round 9)
- Eels: 32% (6)
- Sea Eagles: 34% (2)
- Sharks: 42% (1)
- Broncos: 44% (5)
Cowboys, Roosters and Storm - 50% (season kickoff)
Last edited by Juro on Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Fri 06 Apr, 2018 9:00 am

TOP 8
Now looking at the teams to miss the finals, again there isn't a lot to talk about. Most teams that missed the 8 never looked likely. The Knights had reached 10% by Round 8 before reaching 100% in Round 18. And, sad to say but Wests Tigers were the second team to reach 10% and stay there, doing this in Round 11.

The only real standout on the graph was the Dragons, who reached as high as 88% after Round 7 and only fell below 50% in Rounds 22, 24, 25 and 26. That must have hurt...

Image

Teams were at their highest as follows:
- Dragons: 88% (Round 7)
- Raiders: 64% (7)
- Rabbitohs: 58% (3)
- Wests Tigers: 58% (1)
- Bulldogs: 58% (7)
- Warriors: 57% (1)
- Knights: 51% (3)
- Titans: 50% (season kickoff)
Last edited by Juro on Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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