Wests Tigers Draw - 2017

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Tiger Watto
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Re: Wests Tigers Draw - 2017

Unread post by Tiger Watto » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 5:37 am

WestsBenTigers wrote:If Maloney gets injured, what are the chances of Moses getting the call up for origin?
Low at this stage due to the love affair with Moylan. Realistically, Mitchell is probably another full year away of those type of honors, then he will have to wait his turn.
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Unread post by supercoach » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 7:01 am

Eddie wrote:With JT off contract that is probably not the first 6 weeks he was looking for.

Very tough start.

If he wins three of them they will probably offer him a contract extension!!!!!

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Unread post by Tiger Come Lately » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 7:50 am

supercoach wrote:
Eddie wrote:With JT off contract that is probably not the first 6 weeks he was looking for.

Very tough start.

If he wins three of them they will probably offer him a contract extension!!!!!
First 3 weeks is usually a bit of a miss mash of results.

Probably not the draw he wanted but you live and die by the sword. But IMO it is good to play the top teams early cause i think they struggle against teams their supposed to beat - mental thing i guess, they play at their level.

I see it playing golf, you get a good player in a bad group and for the first 4 or 5 holes they play to the rest of the group and then start to pick up after that.

But my gut tells me that they may have already made a decision on JT and the job is his to lose?

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Unread post by Russell » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 8:21 am

WestsBenTigers wrote:If Maloney gets injured, what are the chances of Moses getting the call up for origin?
None I would say - hope so anyway, I would think Moylan and Bird (they eventually will fade in comparison) would both be in front of him at this stage.

As it should be - he needs more experience, nothing to be gained by rushing him in, doesn't perform too well and then shaft him into oblivion.

When he makes it, in my opinion he is going to be there for a Looooong time!

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Unread post by supercoach » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 8:39 am

Russell wrote:
WestsBenTigers wrote:If Maloney gets injured, what are the chances of Moses getting the call up for origin?
None I would say - hope so anyway, I would think Moylan and Bird (they eventually will fade in comparison) would both be in front of him at this stage.

As it should be - he needs more experience, nothing to be gained by rushing him in, doesn't perform too well and then shaft him into oblivion.

When he makes it, in my opinion he is going to be there for a Looooong time!
I agree, but he also strikes me as a kid who the higher you set the bar the higher he jumps. Also got the feeling he has plenty of people in his corner who have some say when it comes to the Blues. Realistically he still two years away, but with the blues being perennial losers you never know


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Unread post by jirskyr » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 9:26 am

Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.

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Unread post by Tiger4life » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 8:15 pm

jirskyr wrote:Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.
Great analysis, thanks. Sunday arvo definitely suits TIGERS style of throwing the footy around.

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Unread post by innsaneink » Fri 25 Nov, 2016 10:36 pm

Full on!

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Unread post by NT Tiger » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 6:36 am

jirskyr wrote:Bit of analysis - ..........One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.
Given the consensus is that our pack has a hard time backing up each week, the longer turn arounds should really benefit us. It will be interesting to see.
Thanks for the analysis.
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Unread post by happy tiger » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 10:18 am

jirskyr wrote:Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.
We never seem to play well after the bye , which would link to the 13 day break

Yeah we are that bad on Friday's , didn't surprise me

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Unread post by supercoach » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 11:10 am

A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!

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Unread post by WestsBenTigers » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 11:13 am

Do we play bad on Fridays nights due to the conditions or bad against Friday opponents?
I will support Wests Tigers through thick or thin
I will be cheering when they win
I will love the Tigers Till I Die
With loyal supporters we will fly
I love the Tigers with my heart and soul
I just love the club as a whole
If the Wests Tigers believe
We will Unite, Commit and Achieve
:sign: :sign: :sign:

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Unread post by happy tiger » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 11:48 am

supercoach wrote:A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!
Yeah a 50+% season would be nice for a change

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Unread post by goldcoast tiger » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 4:04 pm

pHyR3 wrote:damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice
I think that you are closer to the truth,
0f our first 11 games , the Dragons is the only game that I'd be game to back us to win.

I'd be worrying about all the rest.
If we start at our top we could be pretty happy at the end of round 11.

If we don't, our season could be over by round 12

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Unread post by pHyR3 » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 6:45 pm

goldcoast tiger wrote:
pHyR3 wrote:damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice
I think that you are closer to the truth,
0f our first 11 games , the Dragons is the only game that I'd be game to back us to win.

I'd be worrying about all the rest.
If we start at our top we could be pretty happy at the end of round 11.

If we don't, our season could be over by round 12
yup definitely, with injuries in our favour and no surprise origin selections i would back us to go on a nice little run (like 60-65% win rate) from round 9 until end of origin period.

our schedule eases up a lot then, and gets harder in the back end. so need to pick up a few wins early, a lot during origin and we should be okay. touch wood
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Unread post by Nelson » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 7:53 pm

marzie wrote:
pHyR3 wrote:
marzie wrote:
pHyR3 wrote:damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice
I reckon we can beat all of those teams. We should beat souths, dragons, eels & bulldogs. Panthers at Campbelltown & Storm at Leichhardt too. Would be happy with at least 4-4

Agree that the first couple of months are crucial. Our start this year killed us. 2-8 after 10 rounds... :/
eels and storm?? doubtful unless they drop off from last year (ignoring eels' points strip and decimation by injury)
I meant that playing storm at Leichhardt gives us a better chance than playing them in Melbourne

And yeah reckon Eels will be worse off next year without Foran, Gordon, Paulo (I know he left mid season but played when they beat us), possibly Semi
They have some weak spots but they have a dangerous pack with plenty of running impact and some try scoring backs in French and Semi. I've heard Arthur wants to run an 80 minute hooker this season so they'll probably start out with something like:

1. Bevan French
2. Semi Radradra
3. Brad Takairangi
4. Michael Jennings
5. Josh Hoffman
6. Clint Gutherson
7. Corey Norman
8. Tim Mannah
9. Isaac De Gois
10. Nathan Brown
11. Manu Ma'u
12. Beau Scott
13. Tepai Moeroa

14. Siosaia Vave
15. Suaia Matagi
16. Kenny Edwards
17. Peni Terepo / David Gower

If they get a few injuries they're a little light on depth in the forwards with Wicks and Paulo both gone. There will also be a lot of pressure on Corey Norman to perform.

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Unread post by Geo. » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 7:59 pm

Game at a time...
Ivan's Laws

1. You are either on the Bus or you are off..
2. The Star of the Team is the Team
3. Be the player your teammates want to play with..

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Unread post by jirskyr » Sat 26 Nov, 2016 8:46 pm

supercoach wrote:A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!
Not really, I set up the stats some time ago to help with betting. Now I all I do is paste in the results and it updates automatically.

But no 43% is not enough winning.

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