Wooden Spoon Favourites for 2018 with bookies?

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GNR4LIFE
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Re: Wooden Spoon Favourites for 2018 with bookies?

Unread post by GNR4LIFE » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:32 am

Ben is at the stage Milky was at a few years ago. Making a big deal of a lot of irelevant stuff. Seems to have a good RL brain for a kid his age though.


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Unread post by Tigerdon » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:35 am

Front Rowers (including front row rotion) I'd give the Tigers a minimum 6.
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Unread post by colmcd » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 11:32 am

GNR4LIFE wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:36 am
Its hard to predict the ladder and who will finish in front of who at this point, but i'm fairly confident we'll at least finish ahead of the Titans, Bulldogs, Saints and Newcastle at the least. Newcastle are receiving quite a lot of love atm. I think they will improve and get themselves off the bottom of table, but they won't play finals imo. Atm id say we're 50-50.
Best analysis so far. I am guessing we will be at 11th.

Looking at this years Grand final and the campaign I have seen two things:
Teams with good attack can get to the eight.
Teams with Great defense will have a shot at the premireship.

Melbourne ripped the Cowboys because the Cowboys could not defend. Their forwards were TOUGH, but you saw gaps all over their line in defense. Melbourne were dirty (Cam Smith loves doing the Squirrel Grip) but they toughed it out against a very big pack.

Our team is too new to gel in defense. Knowing where our fellow players will be, will appear and will walk. If we start working on it now we will go well in 2019 but we need to start now.

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Unread post by cqtiger » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse
– Henry Ford

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Unread post by Tiger Come Lately » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:40 pm

cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
I agree, Woods and Teddy going would be a major reason why.


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Unread post by innsaneink » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:42 pm

Bookies playing it safe there will be teams double those odds a few weeks into the season... And odds slashed as well

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Unread post by formerguest » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:42 pm

Computers and their algorithms in the main are creating a market that a coach who seems to prioritise the advice of his own eyes and ears over broadsheets of statistics will seek to overcome. With the prevalent human element of the game and a reasonably clean slate as a base, I am backing the coach.

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Unread post by upthetigers » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 1:24 pm

I think a lot will depend on Brooks and Lolohea. There's no doubt we will be more competitive next season but will we win those grinding close games? We have to in order to make the 8.

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Unread post by kingbrooks » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 1:34 pm

A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.

We will obviously be better with more depth when someone is injured which is our biggest strength. There is not a single player who if they get injured we can't cover, while this year we were cringing at the thought of losing certain players.

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Unread post by Earl » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 4:35 pm

I'm not surprised that we are spoon favourites but I also think the teams are all pretty close. The difference between the top and bottom team is not huge. It's more about being consistent throughout the season. We don't do that.

I'll just wait and see how we go but I wouldn't be surprised if we make the finals next season.

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Unread post by magpiecol » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:31 pm

I wonder what the Cowboys odds would have been if the Saints had beaten the Dogs.

We will go ok.

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Unread post by WestsBenTigers » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm

kingbrooks wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 1:34 pm
A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.
How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player

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Unread post by 851 » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:54 pm

WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 9:52 am
Teams who beat us at 6: Brisbane, Melbourne, Roosters, Cronulla, Manly, Cowboys, Warriors, Dragons

At 6 we are 9th at worst

At 7 we would lose to: Rooseters, Manly, Penrith, Cowboys, Dragons, Warriors, Souths

We are 8th at worst at halfback

So we are 'average' in the halves
Love your confidence, but I would have a few more in front of Brooks, Taylor, Townsend, Moses for starters, Brisbane could end up with Bird at 6 Milford at 7, Maloney could end up at 7 for Newcastle, Croft showed plenty at the storm this year, Seizer isn't too bad either.
Brooks has a lot riding on him next year, another year like the last few and he might be heading to the ESL, I would love him to come good, but geez I am sick of the false dawns, next year is his year stuff.
Go hard or go home

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Unread post by GNR4LIFE » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:56 pm

WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm
kingbrooks wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 1:34 pm
A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.
How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player
How do they stack up against other clubs strike players though?

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Unread post by kiwitiger » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:56 pm

WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm
kingbrooks wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 1:34 pm
A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.
How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player
None of them are strike players at the moment. Aloiai masters suli have potential. Sue is a player with potential 3 years ago. Nofo has weaknesses on d. Lolo is going to play a position he has only played 6 times in fg and u20. Strike players are like our x #1 or thursten or Slater proven. None of them are.

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Unread post by Lidcombe Magpie » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm

cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.

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Unread post by WestsBenTigers » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:12 pm

851 wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:54 pm
WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 9:52 am
Teams who beat us at 6: Brisbane, Melbourne, Roosters, Cronulla, Manly, Cowboys, Warriors, Dragons

At 6 we are 9th at worst

At 7 we would lose to: Rooseters, Manly, Penrith, Cowboys, Dragons, Warriors, Souths

We are 8th at worst at halfback

So we are 'average' in the halves
Love your confidence, but I would have a few more in front of Brooks, Taylor, Townsend, Moses for starters, Brisbane could end up with Bird at 6 Milford at 7, Maloney could end up at 7 for Newcastle, Croft showed plenty at the storm this year, Seizer isn't too bad either.
Brooks has a lot riding on him next year, another year like the last few and he might be heading to the ESL, I would love him to come good, but geez I am sick of the false dawns, next year is his year stuff.
You could look at it that way, but DCE and Johnson could play 6

There are lots of variables, age/experience, forward pack, coaches, halves partner etc.
At the moment Brooks haven't had many of these advantages that other halves have. I think this year we will have a good asses,net of Brooks because he will have a whole pre-season with Hodgo, Cleary, Reynolds and Benji as well as a forward pack who will go FOWARD

Come back after 6 rounds of 2018 and see where Brooks ranks in NRL Halfbacks

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Unread post by Tigerdon » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:29 pm

Lidcombe Magpie wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm
cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.
Looks like we are stuffed then.
Ivan "Billy Beane from Moneyball" Cleary!
It's the Ivan of the tiger, It's the thrill of the fight...

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