Wooden Spoon Favourites for 2018 with bookies?

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WestsBenTigers
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Re: Wooden Spoon Favourites for 2018 with bookies?

Unread post by WestsBenTigers » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:33 pm

Tigerdon wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:29 pm
Lidcombe Magpie wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm
cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.
Looks like we are stuffed then.
Didn't they have Penrith the same chance to win the comp as Melbourne...

Don't give up hope yet


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Unread post by Tigerdon » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:45 pm

WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:33 pm
Tigerdon wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:29 pm
Lidcombe Magpie wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm
cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.
Looks like we are stuffed then.
Didn't they have Penrith the same chance to win the comp as Melbourne...

Don't give up hope yet
Yep, you're right. The Rocket surgeons don't always get in it correct.
Too many unforeseen factors that stray outside the algorithms
Ivan "Billy Beane from Moneyball" Cleary!
It's the Ivan of the tiger, It's the thrill of the fight...

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Unread post by LCA » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 7:43 pm

If nothing else the OP has generated 3 pages of responses. But....really?

I haven't seen the market but I would be pretty sure that the odds would be very conservative at this early stage of betting. Convert those odds to percentages and you will get a good sense of how the odds makers would be protecting their backsides.

I think it means two-thirds of three-quarters of bugger all tbh.

It's gonna be a looooong off season it seems.

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Unread post by voice of reason » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:06 pm

WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm
How very wrong you are!
Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.
I never cease to smile when I read your posts Ben - the future support of West Tigers is secure with fans like you. Keep it up young man - one day you'll be rewarded with a premiership.
Suffering supporter since 1967

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Unread post by goldcoast tiger » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:19 pm

LCA wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 7:43 pm
If nothing else the OP has generated 3 pages of responses. But....really?

I haven't seen the market but I would be pretty sure that the odds would be very conservative at this early stage of betting. Convert those odds to percentages and you will get a good sense of how the odds makers would be protecting their backsides.

I think it means two-thirds of three-quarters of bugger all tbh.

It's gonna be a looooong off season it seems.
Yep it will be. This is the time of the year when we are at our best. When no ones playing against us.
I've long lost the off season rush of confidence that it'll be different next season.
I've got a real wrap on the Coach , but still think we've rushed into some of our buys, in the hopes of not missing out. I think that some of our young blokes that came up this year will be a better bet than Quite a few of our signings .
But they're not at the stage where they will dominate anybody.
Someone was talking about strike players. We don't have any, and unless Brooks has a transformation over the Summer. It wouldn't matter if we did have any strike players. We need him to learn how to manage a game and to take control of the team.

Repeat dropouts , aren't his speciality, and he should spend the summer practising his kicking from about 20 meters out.
The only way his kicks do any damage is to give the defence sore shins.
I'd love to see him Brain it. But he must be running out of chances soon .


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Unread post by Snake » Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:50 pm

I am not overly confident for next season , I do not see a forward pack that will dominate week to week ,Brooks is my problem I really do not think he will get much better than he has been showing to be honest.Things should be better with the roster and coach and with things settled down with in the club,an improvement yes but there are other teams around us that will also improve you would have to think ....the bookies are there abouts one thinks around bottom four for a majority of the season.

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Unread post by magpiecol » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 11:23 am

voice of reason wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:06 pm
WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm
How very wrong you are!
Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.
I never cease to smile when I read your posts Ben - the future support of West Tigers is secure with fans like you. Keep it up young man - one day you'll be rewarded with a premiership.
That would be a second premiership.

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Unread post by LCA » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 6:53 pm

GNR4LIFE wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:32 am
Ben is at the stage Milky was at a few years ago. Making a big deal of a lot of irelevant stuff. Seems to have a good RL brain for a kid his age though.
Oh hell. Along with offering comments on the progress of the team, we're now profiling the progress of the forum contributors!! We need to get over ourselves I think!

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Unread post by Tigerdon » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 6:58 pm

LCA wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 6:53 pm
GNR4LIFE wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:32 am
Ben is at the stage Milky was at a few years ago. Making a big deal of a lot of irelevant stuff. Seems to have a good RL brain for a kid his age though.
Oh hell. Along with offering comments on the progress of the team, we're now profiling the progress of the forum contributors!! We need to get over ourselves I think!
LCA hasn't been getting the metres he normally gets.
Ivan "Billy Beane from Moneyball" Cleary!
It's the Ivan of the tiger, It's the thrill of the fight...

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Unread post by GNR4LIFE » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 7:04 pm

LCA wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 6:53 pm
GNR4LIFE wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:32 am
Ben is at the stage Milky was at a few years ago. Making a big deal of a lot of irelevant stuff. Seems to have a good RL brain for a kid his age though.
Oh hell. Along with offering comments on the progress of the team, we're now profiling the progress of the forum contributors!! We need to get over ourselves I think!
I've been reading your posts for 6 years LCA, and I have to say, this sort of post isn't your go.

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Unread post by innsaneink » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 7:30 pm

GNR4LIFE wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 7:04 pm
LCA wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 6:53 pm
GNR4LIFE wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 10:32 am
Ben is at the stage Milky was at a few years ago. Making a big deal of a lot of irelevant stuff. Seems to have a good RL brain for a kid his age though.
Oh hell. Along with offering comments on the progress of the team, we're now profiling the progress of the forum contributors!! We need to get over ourselves I think!
I've been reading your posts for 6 years LCA, and I have to say, this sort of post isn't your go.
Off season hits some of us harder than others

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Unread post by voice of reason » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 8:39 pm

magpiecol wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 11:23 am
That would be a second premiership.
Indeed, although I'm sure he was still in nappies for the first one.
Suffering supporter since 1967

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Unread post by Spud Murphy » Wed 04 Oct, 2017 8:41 pm

magpiecol wrote:
Wed 04 Oct, 2017 11:23 am
voice of reason wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:06 pm
WestsBenTigers wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 5:40 pm
How very wrong you are!
Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.
I never cease to smile when I read your posts Ben - the future support of West Tigers is secure with fans like you. Keep it up young man - one day you'll be rewarded with a premiership.
That would be a second premiership.
Ben wouldn't remember the first one Col, he was only a baby!

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Unread post by sjtiger » Thu 05 Oct, 2017 2:16 pm

tbh......
I wish were $151 or at least be that price at Round 12!!!
😀

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Unread post by cqtiger » Thu 05 Oct, 2017 2:56 pm

goldcoast tiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 8:19 pm
LCA wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 7:43 pm
If nothing else the OP has generated 3 pages of responses. But....really?

I haven't seen the market but I would be pretty sure that the odds would be very conservative at this early stage of betting. Convert those odds to percentages and you will get a good sense of how the odds makers would be protecting their backsides.

I think it means two-thirds of three-quarters of bugger all tbh.

It's gonna be a looooong off season it seems.
Yep it will be. This is the time of the year when we are at our best. When no ones playing against us.
I've long lost the off season rush of confidence that it'll be different next season.
I've got a real wrap on the Coach , but still think we've rushed into some of our buys, in the hopes of not missing out. I think that some of our young blokes that came up this year will be a better bet than Quite a few of our signings .
But they're not at the stage where they will dominate anybody.
Someone was talking about strike players. We don't have any, and unless Brooks has a transformation over the Summer. It wouldn't matter if we did have any strike players. We need him to learn how to manage a game and to take control of the team.

Repeat dropouts , aren't his speciality, and he should spend the summer practising his kicking from about 20 meters out.
The only way his kicks do any damage is to give the defence sore shins.
I'd love to see him Brain it. But he must be running out of chances soon .
GCT, I think Cleary sees Brooks as a pet project.
He is going to work him hard in the preseason to show improvement in 2018 with another off season and then his last year on contract for 2019. He has to step up somewhat or he is gone.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse
– Henry Ford

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Unread post by goldcoast tiger » Thu 05 Oct, 2017 7:11 pm

Yeah , I think that it's getting close to that.
I just hope he has what's needed.

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Unread post by MG1962 » Fri 06 Oct, 2017 1:46 am

Lidcombe Magpie wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm
cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.
And you have to be careful of purely stat based predictions, and what stats are considered. A couple of years ago a team not expected to make the playoffs in baseball won the World Series. When the bookies and co went back over the season they realized their rating of this team was faulty because they traditionally did not include relief pitching stats. The Kansas City Royals won because they had assembled a closing pitcher roster close to the best in the 120 year history of the game.

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Unread post by Tigerdon » Fri 06 Oct, 2017 8:31 am

MG1962 wrote:
Fri 06 Oct, 2017 1:46 am
Lidcombe Magpie wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 6:08 pm
cqtiger wrote:
Tue 03 Oct, 2017 12:13 pm
Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.
Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.
And you have to be careful of purely stat based predictions, and what stats are considered. A couple of years ago a team not expected to make the playoffs in baseball won the World Series. When the bookies and co went back over the season they realized their rating of this team was faulty because they traditionally did not include relief pitching stats. The Kansas City Royals won because they had assembled a closing pitcher roster close to the best in the 120 year history of the game.

Pin-Heads often miss the abstract
Ivan "Billy Beane from Moneyball" Cleary!
It's the Ivan of the tiger, It's the thrill of the fight...

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