The LEICHHARDT Myth

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Telltails
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Re: The Liechardt Myth

Post by Telltails » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:23 am

Didnt realise their was criteria now for crowd analysis.
We have an increased membership this year, and two new recruits this week one being a ex club legend. It was probably our most important game - why wouldn't it be packed?
Beautiful Sunday arvo at a time that suits families - and there were plenty there in their jerseys. The club has a healthy supporter base in the inner west that might drink coffee and beer - but they all like like Leichardt. So you can try and analyse it any way you want.
It was a great turn out and that is all that should matter.


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Post by Glennb » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:32 am

Any business would kill for an opportunity to present its product to thousands of new and potential customers. Why does it matter that some of the regular Leichhardt crowd are blow ins or only go to Leichhardt games? Does it make them less of a fan than the rest of us that go to all three?

I love Leichhardt but I agree that there will come a day when the facilities are way too outdated (and will not get upgraded) or where we are turning away 10K fans because we cant squeeze them into LO and then we will have to say good bye to the old lady, but we are along way from that right now. LO perfectly fits a niche for us right now and should be celebrated.

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Post by Glennb » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:41 am

Needaname wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 6:11 am
Are we tigers supporters?
Or are we Leichhardt supporters.

I think the point being made here is that Leichhardt has become a place for an event. Not a game of football.

I grew up in the inner west and guys from my schooling years would not have the tigers as their 1st choice team.
However, they all flock to Leichhardt for that nostalgic Sunday game.
There are the diehards there don’t get me wrong.

But I agree that the crowd is full of people more satisfied with having cans on the hill and watching footy than being their to support the tigers.

Difference between Campbelltown and Leichhardt.
Everyone goes there for the team.
Crowds might be less, but they are there for the football.
You can tell in when the team list is named. Everyone claps and cheers and yahoos, same goes at ANZ. But at Leichhardt it’s like your surrounded by people that don’t even know the team.
Were you there on Sunday? The hill was a sea of gold and there was a LOT of noise when the team list was ready out, deafening when they got to Robbie

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Post by jirskyr » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 11:47 am

Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:35 pm
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
A trail of CEO's have said we lose money playing there. But lets go on your break even.
Well this year will not be break even, we will make money same as previous two years. A trail of CEO's have said we lose money as opportunity cost as I explained previously but if we get more than 11K we do not lose money. Im not sure you understand how the ANZ deal works. Do you know how much extra money we would make if yesterdays game was at ANZ instead of Leichhardt and 60,000 people turned up? We would have LOST money. The deal with ANZ is a lump sum where as tenants the loss risk is transferred to them. They pay us $X and that is it, thats all we get and they collect and keep all takings. Doesnt matter if they get 80,000 or 5, Tigers get the same $X. Now $X is way more than they make out of playing at Leichhardt but that doesnt transfer because its not included in the deal.

As you say, a trail of CEO's have discussed this many times and assessed and renegotiated many times. Why do you think we still play out of Leichhardt & CSS? Not out of generosity. Every contract ANZ weigh it up because THEY take the risk. I have no idea what their break even is but they assess that they will lose $$ for Tigers V Titans so they are happy to let that go and Tigers carry the risk and have to get more than 11-12K to make it work.
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
So youre happy with 60% win ratio and breaking even every year? What lofty goals you expect from the club.
As I said before, enjoy missing the 8 year after year. We know thats what they will deliver.
Mate, I would sign up to a 60% win ratio today. We would be in top 4. As Ive explained the breaking even things is a furphy.
In terms of win rate, Glenn is on the money here. 60% is a massive win rate for a team that normally clocks in around 42%. Maybe it would be whittled down if we played at LO every second week, but as an occasional event it typically works - we draw decent crowds and we have a good win rate.

Craig Bellamy has an all-time win rate of 67.9% as a coach, and he's considered possibly the best coach of all time. Bennett has win rate 61.5%. Anything in the realm of 60% is very meaningful in a two-horse race, where averages over sufficient time generally equalises win rates to 50% +/- 5%.

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Post by steve-o » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:23 pm

Geo. wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 9:37 am
don't see why that matters...the $$$$ are the same whether or not your there to watch the footy or discus the latest Latte flavour or get up to date on the breakthrough basket weaving techniques..
Relax Geo, no one is saying LO isn’t still an awesome time out... Sell outs at LO are great for the tigers - the more fans, the better, regardless of whether they are blow ins or hard core fanatics. Blow ins just create a different atmosphere... It’s like watching origin with a friend that is a true league fan vs watching it with someone who refers to it as rugby. You get that air of cluelessness
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2018 - Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Panthers, Broncos, Dragons, Warriors
2017 - Eels, Sea Eagles, Cowboys
2016 - Raiders, Bulldogs, Titans
2013 - Knights
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Post by innsaneink » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:32 pm

Geo. wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 9:37 am
don't see why that matters...the $$$$ are the same whether or not your there to watch the footy or discus the latest Latte flavour or get up to date on the breakthrough basket weaving techniques..
It doesn't matter... No one said it did.
It's just the first time I've seen this point put forward and I think there's some validity to it

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:47 pm

We got 17K because Farah was coming back and to a lesser extent Mbye was debuting. Take those two factors away and that turnout would have been half of that given our recent form.
It's not cruelty to animals if you inject enough amphetamines.

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Post by Russell » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:03 pm

Glennb wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:41 am
Needaname wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 6:11 am
Are we tigers supporters?
Or are we Leichhardt supporters.

I think the point being made here is that Leichhardt has become a place for an event. Not a game of football.

I grew up in the inner west and guys from my schooling years would not have the tigers as their 1st choice team.
However, they all flock to Leichhardt for that nostalgic Sunday game.
There are the diehards there don’t get me wrong.

But I agree that the crowd is full of people more satisfied with having cans on the hill and watching footy than being their to support the tigers.

Difference between Campbelltown and Leichhardt.
Everyone goes there for the team.
Crowds might be less, but they are there for the football.
You can tell in when the team list is named. Everyone claps and cheers and yahoos, same goes at ANZ. But at Leichhardt it’s like your surrounded by people that don’t even know the team.
Were you there on Sunday? The hill was a sea of gold and there was a LOT of noise when the team list was ready out, deafening when they got to Robbie
Maybe you were having a micro sleep Needaname or you were in the Morrison Memorial toilets when they read the team out if you thought there was no noise.

I got it, you had your earphones in.

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Post by steve-o » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:03 pm

innsaneink wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:32 pm
Geo. wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 9:37 am
don't see why that matters...the $$$$ are the same whether or not your there to watch the footy or discus the latest Latte flavour or get up to date on the breakthrough basket weaving techniques..
It doesn't matter... No one said it did.
It's just the first time I've seen this point put forward and I think there's some validity to it
Agreed
Year of last finals appearance:
2018 - Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Panthers, Broncos, Dragons, Warriors
2017 - Eels, Sea Eagles, Cowboys
2016 - Raiders, Bulldogs, Titans
2013 - Knights
2011 - Tigers

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Post by Needaname » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:06 pm

Glennb wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:41 am
Needaname wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 6:11 am
Are we tigers supporters?
Or are we Leichhardt supporters.

I think the point being made here is that Leichhardt has become a place for an event. Not a game of football.

I grew up in the inner west and guys from my schooling years would not have the tigers as their 1st choice team.
However, they all flock to Leichhardt for that nostalgic Sunday game.
There are the diehards there don’t get me wrong.

But I agree that the crowd is full of people more satisfied with having cans on the hill and watching footy than being their to support the tigers.

Difference between Campbelltown and Leichhardt.
Everyone goes there for the team.
Crowds might be less, but they are there for the football.
You can tell in when the team list is named. Everyone claps and cheers and yahoos, same goes at ANZ. But at Leichhardt it’s like your surrounded by people that don’t even know the team.
Were you there on Sunday? The hill was a sea of gold and there was a LOT of noise when the team list was ready out, deafening when they got to Robbie
I can assure you I was there. And yes I heard the deafening cheer for Robbie. Maybe I was too close to the speakers to hear the other cheers. I’m glad we got a full house either way. I’m ready for a change of Stadium though.

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Post by Russell » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:07 pm

Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:47 pm
We got 17K because Farah was coming back and to a lesser extent Mbye was debuting. Take those two factors away and that turnout would have been half of that given our recent form.
Think your wrong - we had 13+ on a cold Thursday night a few games ago - there was no Farah or Mbye then.
Half of 17000 is 8,500 so who or where did the other 3-4000 come from?

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:20 pm

Russell wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:07 pm
Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:47 pm
We got 17K because Farah was coming back and to a lesser extent Mbye was debuting. Take those two factors away and that turnout would have been half of that given our recent form.
Think your wrong - we had 13+ on a cold Thursday night a few games ago - there was no Farah or Mbye then.
Half of 17000 is 8,500 so who or where did the other 3-4000 come from?
You mean the Thursday night in round 10 where we were going into the game only 6/3? We were winning regularly so of course we'll do better. 8.5K was probably a little hyperbolic but I reckon you take Mbye and Farah out of the equation and we'd have been lucky to get 10K.
It's not cruelty to animals if you inject enough amphetamines.

Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...

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Post by gallagher » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 2:03 pm

jirskyr wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 11:47 am
Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:35 pm
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
A trail of CEO's have said we lose money playing there. But lets go on your break even.
Well this year will not be break even, we will make money same as previous two years. A trail of CEO's have said we lose money as opportunity cost as I explained previously but if we get more than 11K we do not lose money. Im not sure you understand how the ANZ deal works. Do you know how much extra money we would make if yesterdays game was at ANZ instead of Leichhardt and 60,000 people turned up? We would have LOST money. The deal with ANZ is a lump sum where as tenants the loss risk is transferred to them. They pay us $X and that is it, thats all we get and they collect and keep all takings. Doesnt matter if they get 80,000 or 5, Tigers get the same $X. Now $X is way more than they make out of playing at Leichhardt but that doesnt transfer because its not included in the deal.

As you say, a trail of CEO's have discussed this many times and assessed and renegotiated many times. Why do you think we still play out of Leichhardt & CSS? Not out of generosity. Every contract ANZ weigh it up because THEY take the risk. I have no idea what their break even is but they assess that they will lose $$ for Tigers V Titans so they are happy to let that go and Tigers carry the risk and have to get more than 11-12K to make it work.
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
So youre happy with 60% win ratio and breaking even every year? What lofty goals you expect from the club.
As I said before, enjoy missing the 8 year after year. We know thats what they will deliver.
Mate, I would sign up to a 60% win ratio today. We would be in top 4. As Ive explained the breaking even things is a furphy.
In terms of win rate, Glenn is on the money here. 60% is a massive win rate for a team that normally clocks in around 42%. Maybe it would be whittled down if we played at LO every second week, but as an occasional event it typically works - we draw decent crowds and we have a good win rate.

Craig Bellamy has an all-time win rate of 67.9% as a coach, and he's considered possibly the best coach of all time. Bennett has win rate 61.5%. Anything in the realm of 60% is very meaningful in a two-horse race, where averages over sufficient time generally equalises win rates to 50% +/- 5%.
I'd say 60% is not a big enough win rate to overlook the money we lose there. And I'm not taking about one off 17k crowds. Ave of 12k in 19 sessions.
Storms win rate is 75% at Aami. But we won't measure ourselves against the best. We're the also rans.

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Post by Eddie » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:41 pm

I say 60% is a massive win rate really for a club like us.

Last time i checked 50% of wins get you in the finals.

And making finals regularly gets you more $$$ in terms of sponsors and people through the gate/ easier to attract players.

I would be happy with 8 at the new Western Sydney Stadium and 4 at Leichhardt. Bye bye ANZ and CTown.

But your never going to please everyone whatever they do.

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Post by Geo. » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:51 pm

We have a 66% win record in the Gong..Top 4 stuff
Ivan's Laws

1. You are either on the Bus or you are off..
2. The Star of the Team is the Team
3. Be the player your teammates want to play with..

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Post by diedpretty » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:59 pm

Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 9:52 pm
diedpretty wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 8:55 pm
Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 12:25 pm
diedpretty wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 12:14 pm


Of course you would - why don't you actually read the OP's original post - it was nothing about crowds - it was about the false belief that the ground provides a fortress mentality for WT.
Why of course I would? This thread genuinely doesnt make sense.

I did read the OP. It was wrong. Since WT existed we have won 45 and lost 34. Compared to our overall success rate this is a stunning rate of victories. Our previous game there was a great crowd and a great victory. Again, this thread makes no sense.

Despite the OP post, this thread has somehow degenerated into criticising a full house at Leichhardt.

Please point out where this thread makes sense?
My point was it wasn't about crowds or which ground is better. Had you put forward this argument in the first place it would have been a well constructed argument against the OP:
Its closer to 60% at Leichhardt whereas Campbelltown & ANZ are a pretty steady 44%. That is a 50% greater chance of victory at Leichhardt which based on our crap win rate forever is a STUNNING victory rate. A veritable fortress.
Instead you posted this which was just a derogative remark which had no relation to the argument :
The only motivation I can see for this thread would be Magpies diehards who are defensive about the fact that Campbo crowds have been poor but that would be ridiculous. As a Tigers fan we should be happy about this surely?
Well put DP. I genuinely wasnt trying to be a smart arse or be clever or anything. I was actually perplexed to the point of the thread and struggling to see the motivation behind it. That last paragraph was and is genuinely the only reason I could see for people arguing. I can see that my last paragraph may have been inflammatory and I genuinely didnt mean that. I think I have set Gallaghers defence mechanism off as well and I can see why. Again, genuinely didnt mean it. Kudos for explaining yourself in a reasoned manner.
Thats ok - i wasn't trying to be a smart a - and you are right that LO has the best winning record - its unfortunate the ground is so dated and the chances of getting money to bring it up to current NRL standard is slim. In todays world of chasing the dollar the club has to move with the times and i think Clearys one ground call was about preparing the fans for a move from both LO and CSS and more than likely to Western Sydney Stadium. I guess time will tell.

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Post by hobbo » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:59 pm

Geo. wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:51 pm
We have a 66% win record in the Gong..Top 4 stuff
That’s a shame cause the games at
Kogarah ...
We need mongrel ..
No more plodders !

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Post by innsaneink » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 5:03 pm

They always try to please everyone... That's the problem

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