The LEICHHARDT Myth

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foreveratiger
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Re: The Liechardt Myth

Post by foreveratiger » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 5:06 pm

Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:20 pm
Russell wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 1:07 pm
Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 12:47 pm
We got 17K because Farah was coming back and to a lesser extent Mbye was debuting. Take those two factors away and that turnout would have been half of that given our recent form.
Think your wrong - we had 13+ on a cold Thursday night a few games ago - there was no Farah or Mbye then.
Half of 17000 is 8,500 so who or where did the other 3-4000 come from?
You mean the Thursday night in round 10 where we were going into the game only 6/3? We were winning regularly so of course we'll do better. 8.5K was probably a little hyperbolic but I reckon you take Mbye and Farah out of the equation and we'd have been lucky to get 10K.
You are spot on CB .
That Thursday Night game was also the 1st game at Leicherdt for the year .
Main reason was the Farah and Mbye appearance cause after that diabolical performance vs the Raiders you would not have even bothered , 10-11k would of been going rate last Sunday .
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.


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Post by hobbo » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm

innsaneink wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 5:03 pm
They always try to please everyone... That's the problem
Yep
They need to bite the bullet ...
In time most will accept the decision
We need mongrel ..
No more plodders !

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Post by gallagher » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 6:55 pm

Eddie wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 4:41 pm
I say 60% is a massive win rate really for a club like us.

Last time i checked 50% of wins get you in the finals.

And making finals regularly gets you more $$$ in terms of sponsors and people through the gate/ easier to attract players.

I would be happy with 8 at the new Western Sydney Stadium and 4 at Leichhardt. Bye bye ANZ and CTown.

But your never going to please everyone whatever they do.
"For a club like us.'
An also ran, making you the numbers club.
Surely we want to be better.

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Post by Eddie » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 8:57 pm

We want to play finals.

We have a ground we win at 60% of the time.

SO there is an argument there.

Steelers moved most their games back to the Gong and Kogarah this year??

Are they in free fall ?

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Post by gallagher » Tue 03 Jul, 2018 9:29 pm

Eddie wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 8:57 pm
We want to play finals.

We have a ground we win at 60% of the time.

SO there is an argument there.

Steelers moved most their games back to the Gong and Kogarah this year??

Are they in free fall ?
Financially they are. Theyve been looking for an investor to buy 50% of the club For over s year to no avail. Why? Why has Bruce Gordon got out? They could go broke if they don't find anoher rich supportet and thats who we should aspire to be like?


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Post by Eddie » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 1:17 am

Interesting. Not saying your wrong. Why would they then add games to local grounds if that were the case?

What is there logic there must be some? Im sure there not all dummies.

Maybe they thought they could win more games in doing so and increase revenue that way...

1st after 17 rounds sounds ok to me with off season signings of Graham and Hunt- Def top 4 - possible GF.

Investors surely more attracted to a now winning team?

Different ways to skin a cat ?

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Post by Needaname » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 1:26 am

Question I’ve been pondering.
When was the last home game parramatta played at Parra Stadium?
Was it last year.
Could their be a case for larger soulless stadiums not providing the team with the atmosphere to deliver?
Could this be what saints identified with their ANZ experiement?

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Post by innsaneink » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am

Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 6:30 am

innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
I understand why people feel that we have to keep our traditional bases and what they mean to people but you’re right one home ground is the way to go. I know people who have said to me in the past they will only go to Leichhardt games, late last year I convinced them to come to Campbelltown and they have started coming regularly. I’m sure if we move to one of the new stadiums full time people who want to watch the game will come. The club needs to make the decision they see as right, it’s our job as fans to be emotional about things - it’s their job to take the emotion out of decisions.

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Post by Telltails » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 7:03 am

innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
Its going to happen at some point. Our level of success will largely determine crowd figures where ever we play, but I would like to think that some consideration is given to where the fan base lies in terms of accessing the facilty.
If it is Parramatta - in between both venues - shared home ground with Parramatta- as long as we are not considered the drop ins... its a solution.

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Post by foreveratiger » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 7:59 am

innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
Yep that's it .

Our Club also looses out with the packages they dish out it's like they know there is a division within our Club
4 Leichardt games package , 4 Campbelltown games package , then they have the 8 game where you have 4 at ANZ and 4 at which ever Ground you want being Leichardt or Campbelltown.
One ground cut the rubbish if people want to support the Club so be it....if you can't handle they don't play at your preferred ground ? well people don't have the Club's best interest at heart.
It depends who you talk to on this Forum, if you are Optimistic? it's because your delusional and need a reality check. If you are Pessimistic? Your accused of being a negative Nancy and to go and follow another Club.

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Post by Russell » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 8:50 am

foreveratiger wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 7:59 am
innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
Yep that's it .

Our Club also looses out with the packages they dish out it's like they know there is a division within our Club
4 Leichardt games package , 4 Campbelltown games package , then they have the 8 game where you have 4 at ANZ and 4 at which ever Ground you want being Leichardt or Campbelltown.
One ground cut the rubbish if people want to support the Club so be it....if you can't handle they don't play at your preferred ground ? well people don't have the Club's best interest at heart.
Maybe they won't go - don't have the best interest but then how does that help the revenue.

They have to get it right or it will be a quick trip to Perth I'd say.

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Post by Glennb » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:13 am

gallagher wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 2:03 pm
jirskyr wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 11:47 am
Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:35 pm
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
A trail of CEO's have said we lose money playing there. But lets go on your break even.
Well this year will not be break even, we will make money same as previous two years. A trail of CEO's have said we lose money as opportunity cost as I explained previously but if we get more than 11K we do not lose money. Im not sure you understand how the ANZ deal works. Do you know how much extra money we would make if yesterdays game was at ANZ instead of Leichhardt and 60,000 people turned up? We would have LOST money. The deal with ANZ is a lump sum where as tenants the loss risk is transferred to them. They pay us $X and that is it, thats all we get and they collect and keep all takings. Doesnt matter if they get 80,000 or 5, Tigers get the same $X. Now $X is way more than they make out of playing at Leichhardt but that doesnt transfer because its not included in the deal.

As you say, a trail of CEO's have discussed this many times and assessed and renegotiated many times. Why do you think we still play out of Leichhardt & CSS? Not out of generosity. Every contract ANZ weigh it up because THEY take the risk. I have no idea what their break even is but they assess that they will lose $$ for Tigers V Titans so they are happy to let that go and Tigers carry the risk and have to get more than 11-12K to make it work.
gallagher wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:08 pm
So youre happy with 60% win ratio and breaking even every year? What lofty goals you expect from the club.
As I said before, enjoy missing the 8 year after year. We know thats what they will deliver.

Mate, I would sign up to a 60% win ratio today. We would be in top 4. As Ive explained the breaking even things is a furphy.
In terms of win rate, Glenn is on the money here. 60% is a massive win rate for a team that normally clocks in around 42%. Maybe it would be whittled down if we played at LO every second week, but as an occasional event it typically works - we draw decent crowds and we have a good win rate.

Craig Bellamy has an all-time win rate of 67.9% as a coach, and he's considered possibly the best coach of all time. Bennett has win rate 61.5%. Anything in the realm of 60% is very meaningful in a two-horse race, where averages over sufficient time generally equalises win rates to 50% +/- 5%.
I'd say 60% is not a big enough win rate to overlook the money we lose there. And I'm not taking about one off 17k crowds. Ave of 12k in 19 sessions.
Storms win rate is 75% at Aami. But we won't measure ourselves against the best. We're the also rans.
You misunderstand the ANZ deal. WE ARE NOT LOSING MONEY at Leichhardt because under the current deal with ANZ, we would not receive a $ if the Leichhardt game was at ANZ. ANZ are happy for us to have low drawing games away from ANZ because they carry the risk and THEY lose money on small crowds. The FIRM LUMP SUM deal is worked out on this basis. Therefore we have the game at Leichhardt we make a small amount of $$ on these games and the punters are happy. Win/Win (except for on the field).

Storms win rate is 75% at AAMI because they win rate EVERYWHERE is high. Our win rate away from Leichhardt is around 40%.

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Post by innsaneink » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:29 am

Russell wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
foreveratiger wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 7:59 am
innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
Yep that's it .

Our Club also looses out with the packages they dish out it's like they know there is a division within our Club
4 Leichardt games package , 4 Campbelltown games package , then they have the 8 game where you have 4 at ANZ and 4 at which ever Ground you want being Leichardt or Campbelltown.
One ground cut the rubbish if people want to support the Club so be it....if you can't handle they don't play at your preferred ground ? well people don't have the Club's best interest at heart.
Maybe they won't go - don't have the best interest but then how does that help the revenue.

They have to get it right or it will be a quick trip to Perth I'd say.
Is moving to one home ground as drastic a measure as combining two foundation clubs?
We know what happened with the most drastic move we could make almost 20 years back.... Yes some didn't accept it, as some won't accept a venue move... I reckon eventually most would, grudgingly or otherwise

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Post by gallagher » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:47 am

Glennb wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:13 am
gallagher wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 2:03 pm
jirskyr wrote:
Tue 03 Jul, 2018 11:47 am
Glennb wrote:
Mon 02 Jul, 2018 5:35 pm


Well this year will not be break even, we will make money same as previous two years. A trail of CEO's have said we lose money as opportunity cost as I explained previously but if we get more than 11K we do not lose money. Im not sure you understand how the ANZ deal works. Do you know how much extra money we would make if yesterdays game was at ANZ instead of Leichhardt and 60,000 people turned up? We would have LOST money. The deal with ANZ is a lump sum where as tenants the loss risk is transferred to them. They pay us $X and that is it, thats all we get and they collect and keep all takings. Doesnt matter if they get 80,000 or 5, Tigers get the same $X. Now $X is way more than they make out of playing at Leichhardt but that doesnt transfer because its not included in the deal.

As you say, a trail of CEO's have discussed this many times and assessed and renegotiated many times. Why do you think we still play out of Leichhardt & CSS? Not out of generosity. Every contract ANZ weigh it up because THEY take the risk. I have no idea what their break even is but they assess that they will lose $$ for Tigers V Titans so they are happy to let that go and Tigers carry the risk and have to get more than 11-12K to make it work.




Mate, I would sign up to a 60% win ratio today. We would be in top 4. As Ive explained the breaking even things is a furphy.
In terms of win rate, Glenn is on the money here. 60% is a massive win rate for a team that normally clocks in around 42%. Maybe it would be whittled down if we played at LO every second week, but as an occasional event it typically works - we draw decent crowds and we have a good win rate.

Craig Bellamy has an all-time win rate of 67.9% as a coach, and he's considered possibly the best coach of all time. Bennett has win rate 61.5%. Anything in the realm of 60% is very meaningful in a two-horse race, where averages over sufficient time generally equalises win rates to 50% +/- 5%.
I'd say 60% is not a big enough win rate to overlook the money we lose there. And I'm not taking about one off 17k crowds. Ave of 12k in 19 sessions.
Storms win rate is 75% at Aami. But we won't measure ourselves against the best. We're the also rans.
You misunderstand the ANZ deal. WE ARE NOT LOSING MONEY at Leichhardt because under the current deal with ANZ, we would not receive a $ if the Leichhardt game was at ANZ. ANZ are happy for us to have low drawing games away from ANZ because they carry the risk and THEY lose money on small crowds. The FIRM LUMP SUM deal is worked out on this basis. Therefore we have the game at Leichhardt we make a small amount of $$ on these games and the punters are happy. Win/Win (except for on the field).

Storms win rate is 75% at AAMI because they win rate EVERYWHERE is high. Our win rate away from Leichhardt is around 40%.
You keep on talking about ANZ. I'm talking about LO. We lose money playing there despite what you think.
Repeating that we make a profit there over and over wont make it a fact.

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Post by gallagher » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:53 am

Eddie wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 1:17 am
Interesting. Not saying your wrong. Why would they then add games to local grounds if that were the case?

What is there logic there must be some? Im sure there not all dummies.

Maybe they thought they could win more games in doing so and increase revenue that way...

1st after 17 rounds sounds ok to me with off season signings of Graham and Hunt- Def top 4 - possible GF.

Investors surely more attracted to a now winning team?

Different ways to skin a cat ?
I can see them making a short term decision to get a buyer, I see your point there.
But even at the top of the table theyre not getting huge crowds. Their just one at the gong looked tiny.

Doust has a long history with the St George club aswell. Maybe personal feelings won't let him move from Kogarah.

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Post by Snake » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:55 am

foreveratiger wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 7:59 am
innsaneink wrote:
Wed 04 Jul, 2018 5:54 am
Souths are going OK playing at ANZ... Won a comp recently.
Dogs not so now but have made 2 GFs recently playing from ANZ.

I really think we dilute & weaken our product and brand playing everywhere when it's clear we have two separate fan bases.
Consolidate and condense... playing at one ground might be painful at first losing a few who are venue fans first & foremost.
I'm sure eventually it would be fruitful.
Dare I say it.. the "true supporters" would still be there
Yep that's it .

Our Club also looses out with the packages they dish out it's like they know there is a division within our Club
4 Leichardt games package , 4 Campbelltown games package , then they have the 8 game where you have 4 at ANZ and 4 at which ever Ground you want being Leichardt or Campbelltown.
One ground cut the rubbish if people want to support the Club so be it....if you can't handle they don't play at your preferred ground ? well people don't have the Club's best interest at heart.
Glad to see there are supporters that realise that not doing so will be the demise of the club .. win/ loss percentages big yawn!!! Give us supporters a modern... high tech ... genuine atmosphere and well situated stadium to play all our games . The rot has to stop .. bring all our supporter bases together then finally we will be WESTSTIGERS!

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Post by gallagher » Wed 04 Jul, 2018 9:58 am

Hear hear

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