Run Home and Finals Hopes

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MacDougall
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Run Home and Finals Hopes

Post by MacDougall » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 11:53 am

Looking at the run homes of the teams in contention for 8th position and our chances are not be as bad as it feels like despite being 4 behind the Broncos.

Here are the run homes of the three sides. Ours is the best of them despite running into Souths twice and the Dragons again.

Broncos - Panthers (h), Sharks (h), Dogs (a), Cowboys (a), Bunnies (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (h)
Raiders - Sharks (a), Storm (a), Panthers (a), Tigers (h), Roosters (h), Bunnies (h), Warriors (a)
Tigers - Bunnies (h), Dogs (a), Knights (a), Raiders (a), Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (h), Bunnies (h)

There is only one game between the three sides and that's in Canberra in a month, us vs. our bogey side. This is likely to be a crucial game for us, but the Raiders are basically on a hiding to nothing with this run home. That game is the only one that even looks winnable. The Raiders are zero chance of making the finals with that run home.

The Broncos face a slightly easier run home with games against the Dogs, Cowboys and Manly along with three top 8 teams all at Suncorp. The Broncos realistically only need to win 4 games to guarantee a finals spot, 3 might get them in if we can't go on a tear. Their points differential is sub par and it's feasible if we go on a run and they split wins and losses or worth our P/D can end up better than theirs (presuming Canberra don't put 50 on us again).

In my opinion, the fate is square in our hands. We have a good history against the Bunnies and we play them twice. I know they are a strong team this year but they don't play a style that generally troubles us and historically we do well against them even if they are going good. We also have risen against the best sides this season, with two wins over the Storm, one over the Roosters and one over the Dragons. Our record against the top 4 is incredible. It's winnable games we lose. The That said the Dogs and Manly are teams that we tend to do well against even with this dumb lose winnable games mentality and I can't see either troubling us. The Knights game is a worry as they will have Ponga and Pearce in the side and at home this will be a game we MUST turn up for.

I expect that by the time we go to Canberra, they will be out of contention. I can't see them winning any of their next three games. There is also an interesting stat to look out for. While we have been humbled by Canberra lately, Benji Marshall has actually only lost against Canberra one time in a Wests Tigers jersey from 13 starts, back in 2012. If he is in the side, which bogey will be at play? Make sure that we're putting that out there into the universe that week please. :roll

If we can win 5 of these 7 games we will probably make the 8, particularly if we can rectify our points differential. There is a chance we can miss out on 28 points on PD if the Broncos string some good perfomances together in their tough run home. We can't afford to lose to the Dogs, Knights or Sea Eagles and as long as we can win 2 of the rest I have us scraping in at 8th position. It's possible that the Broncos also lose quite a few games and the 8th position ends up requiring a lower finishing position to get in.

I actually think we will make it based on the types of teams we are playing. The playing styles of all these teams bar Canberra favour us and with them out of contention and no Wighton or Croker in the side (and the Marshall curse) that one could be a big turnaround for us too.


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Post by clifferdSH » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 11:59 am

We need to beat souffs atleast once in the two games we play them. This weekend is the best chance and would give us enormous confidence. I reckon they get us in the last round as they fine tune for the finals though

Saints at leichhardt I reckon we roll them again, based on their last few weeks they are puss and so long as we aren't complacent every game bar the raiders away should be certainties

But the tigers never surprise me so we probably beat souffs twice and dragons then lose to garbage like manly and dogs

Gee if we scraped in and dragons finished 5th I'd be very confident of beating them week 1 of the finals
Last edited by clifferdSH on Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:02 pm

We're cooked. Even with Farah and Mbye bringing some spark in attack I cannot see us getting up for the rest of the year enough to scrape in. Our forwards are not making enough metres and we are getting cut up around the ruck.

Happy to be proven otherwise but unless Packer and Mats revert back to their form from the first few weeks teams like Souths and maybe even the Dragons (they will not take us so lightly next time,) on the return journey will make us pay.
And she's turning cold, at fifteen years old,
Taken too much slow, minds gone out to sea on the P&O,
Don't know what to do, rotten shade of blue,
Another case of "stupid is as stupid does..."

Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...

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Post by MacDougall » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:03 pm

Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:02 pm
We're cooked. Even with Farah and Mbye bringing some spark in attack I cannot see us getting up for the rest of the year enough to scrape in. Our forwards are not making enough metres and we are getting cut up around the ruck.

Happy to be proven otherwise but unless Packer and Mats revert back to their form from the first few weeks teams like Souths and maybe even the Dragons (they will not take us so lightly next time,) on the return journey will make us pay.
Be positive! Nothing was ever gained from having a negative mindset. :sign:

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Post by MacDougall » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:04 pm

clifferdSH wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 11:59 am
We need to beat souffs atleast once in the two games we play them. This weekend is the best chance and would give us enormous confidence. I reckon they get us in the last round as they fine tune for the finals though

Saints at leichhardt I reckon we roll them again, based on their last few weeks they are puss and so long as we aren't complacent every game bar the raiders away should be certainties

But the tigers never surprise me so we probably beat souffs twice and dragons then lose to garbage like manly and dogs
Haha that's the fear I have too.

I think we will beat Souths twice and the Dragons. I just hope we can turn it around and beat Canberra. Imagine if we beat Souths twice, Dragons twice, Storm twice, Melbourne once and miss the finals?


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Post by Cultured Bogan » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:06 pm

MacDougall wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:03 pm
Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:02 pm
We're cooked. Even with Farah and Mbye bringing some spark in attack I cannot see us getting up for the rest of the year enough to scrape in. Our forwards are not making enough metres and we are getting cut up around the ruck.

Happy to be proven otherwise but unless Packer and Mats revert back to their form from the first few weeks teams like Souths and maybe even the Dragons (they will not take us so lightly next time,) on the return journey will make us pay.
Be positive! Nothing was ever gained from having a negative mindset. :sign:
It did last weekend. I thought we were going to get slaughtered, was pleasantly surprised.
And she's turning cold, at fifteen years old,
Taken too much slow, minds gone out to sea on the P&O,
Don't know what to do, rotten shade of blue,
Another case of "stupid is as stupid does..."

Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...

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Post by clifferdSH » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:10 pm

MacDougall wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:04 pm
clifferdSH wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 11:59 am
We need to beat souffs atleast once in the two games we play them. This weekend is the best chance and would give us enormous confidence. I reckon they get us in the last round as they fine tune for the finals though

Saints at leichhardt I reckon we roll them again, based on their last few weeks they are puss and so long as we aren't complacent every game bar the raiders away should be certainties

But the tigers never surprise me so we probably beat souffs twice and dragons then lose to garbage like manly and dogs
Haha that's the fear I have too.

I think we will beat Souths twice and the Dragons. I just hope we can turn it around and beat Canberra. Imagine if we beat Souths twice, Dragons twice, Storm twice, Melbourne once and miss the finals?
Would surely be some record but for the wrong reasons? I just hate how we phoned it in so badly against raiders and titans. If we showed even half the ticker we did against the dragqueens we probably win both easily

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Post by willow » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:30 pm

Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:02 pm
We're cooked. Even with Farah and Mbye bringing some spark in attack I cannot see us getting up for the rest of the year enough to scrape in. Our forwards are not making enough metres and we are getting cut up around the ruck.

Happy to be proven otherwise but unless Packer and Mats revert back to their form from the first few weeks teams like Souths and maybe even the Dragons (they will not take us so lightly next time,) on the return journey will make us pay.
I tend to agree. Souths look a different proposition to previous seasons and we'll need to catch them on an off-day to have any chance. Canberra in Canberra...they'll put 50 past us again. Newcastle won't be easy either.

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Post by AfricanAnimal » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:34 pm

Yo! Here's my prediction for the rest of our games:
vs Rabbits: We'll get them (W)
vs Dogs: Bulldogs lack firepower. Easy win for us (W)
vs Knights: Time to get revenge (W)
vs Raiders: Revenge gets sweeter (W)
vs Dragons: They'll get us back (L)
vs Manly: Manly is too out of form. We will get the job done (W)
vs Rabbits: They win - just (L)

Raiders will get destroyed with their remaining games and fall out of the top 8.
Broncos have a chance and will be our main threat.

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Post by marzie » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:37 pm

What about if we didn't get rorted by the refs vs broncos in round 5 we would both be on 20 pts right now

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Post by iofthetigers » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:38 pm

The Raiders aren't in the 8. Hopefully we can at least be in all the remaining games & what will be will be from there.

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Post by clifferdSH » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:40 pm

willow wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:30 pm
Cultured Bogan wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:02 pm
We're cooked. Even with Farah and Mbye bringing some spark in attack I cannot see us getting up for the rest of the year enough to scrape in. Our forwards are not making enough metres and we are getting cut up around the ruck.

Happy to be proven otherwise but unless Packer and Mats revert back to their form from the first few weeks teams like Souths and maybe even the Dragons (they will not take us so lightly next time,) on the return journey will make us pay.
I tend to agree. Souths look a different proposition to previous seasons and we'll need to catch them on an off-day to have any chance. Canberra in Canberra...they'll put 50 past us again. Newcastle won't be easy either.
Sounds familiar to our most recent game. Different dragons team blah blah blah

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Post by the third » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 1:55 pm

If we weren’t ripped off those 2 points in our first game with Brisbane we would be in 9th place on for and against. Equal with the horses on points

Then it would be a completely different conversation about our run home

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Post by happy tiger » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:03 pm

Canberra with Hodgson back are a completely different unit

The big game in all this apart from the Tigers v Raiders game is Brisbane v Cowboys game

This will be the Cowboys GF , they will lift for this

I reckon we can lose 2 games at the worst and definitely can't lose to the Raiders

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Post by Geo. » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:06 pm

Week at a time
Ivan's Laws

1. You are either on the Bus or you are off..
2. The Star of the Team is the Team
3. Be the player your teammates want to play with..

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Post by teddy23 » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:13 pm

If we beat Rabbits this week then we should delve into it further as of now it's quite unlikely

I don't think the top 8 changes and we'll finish 9th.... hope not but it is realistic


If we win the next 3 games then the week of the Raiders game should be when finals is thoroughly talked about

I have faith tho!

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Post by kingbrooks » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:29 pm

We have won 3 of our last 11 or something like that. I just hope we play competitive footy to keep spirits up.

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Post by happy tiger » Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:33 pm

Geo. wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 2:06 pm
Week at a time
Bit different from when you told us we would go through the season undefeated

Warriors aren't home and hosed yet either

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