2 from 13, 18% last 2 years

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jirskyr
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Re: 2 from 13, 18% last 2 years

Post by jirskyr » Fri 04 Mar, 2016 10:26 pm

southerntiger wrote:
Eddie wrote:Without the bloke some don't want here.

Hopefully we can improve on that record the next few weeks.

We did play really well last year against Souths last year, but sadly it was a one off.
Its a meaningless stat. Whats our record over that period with him? Not much better. And you take any regular player out of your spine, it will be a struggle particularly when you dont have a ready replacement as we didnt over that period. Iosefa, Luani and Halatau. Not exactly pressing for a first grade spot elsewhere.
It's 45.71% with Farah last two years. It's hugely better with him, but you do make a point that your win ratio should be better with the major players on the field, otherwise you are paying a lot of money for someone who you do better without.

I do not agree that it's meaningless, but it has to be looked at in the context of other players as well. I was surprised when I first found out that we lose more when Simona is absent, but it correlates with last year and our worst performances occurring when the first-choice centres were out.


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Post by Harvey » Fri 04 Mar, 2016 10:31 pm

InBenjiWeTrust wrote:
jirskyr wrote:
Eddie wrote:
They bore me to death as well

I just could not resist this one for our resident stat gurus !!

Im sure they will have the counter stats which are much better ready to go!!
Hi Eddie, how are you?

2/13 is 15.38%, even better for your one-sided argument.

Important to the conversation however is the overlooked contribution of other major players during this same two year period.

Wins WITHOUT certain players:
5/16 without Tedesco (31.25%)
0/4 without Brooks (0.00%)
1/7 without Woods (14.29%)
2/11 without Galloway (18.18%)
2/14 without Simona (14.29%)

Wins WITH these players:
16/35 when Farah plays (45.71%)
13/32 with Tedesco (40.63%)
18/44 with Brooks (40.91%)
17/41 with Woods (41.46%)
16/37 with Galloway (43.24%)
16/34 with Simona (47.06%)

Is is therefore very arguable that Tim Simona is the most important major player in the team in the past two years, as our win ratio is best and loss ratio is worst when he does / does not (resp.) play.

I think I have more win/loss player stats in my other guru backpack, which I left at home today.
Thank you, great job. This confirms importance of Smona, hopefully he will be luckier with injuries this season.
Also proves you can manipulate stats to give the result you want if you dig deep enough and look for numbers that support the arguement you are trying to make.

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Post by jirskyr » Fri 04 Mar, 2016 10:46 pm

Harvey wrote: Also proves you can manipulate stats to give the result you want if you dig deep enough and look for numbers that support the arguement you are trying to make.
How cynical.

Take for example the fact that we have loss most when Simona is absent 2014-15. It's not an argument at all, I didn't look at the numbers with any angle in mind, just curious who we fared worst without.

Don't be afraid of stats, unless you are naive and/or lazy. Anyone can cherry pick data, sure, but they can also lie, stretch truth, mislead, misrepresent with anything that comes out of their mouth. Listen to what they say, do some research and make up your mind.

The alternative to stats is... gossip? Opinions? Hearsay?

The world is too big and complicated and full of dimwits, you gotta be able to try and quantify things. Speaking to almost anyone in public service, finance, gambling, science.

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Post by Harvey » Fri 04 Mar, 2016 10:57 pm

jirskyr wrote:
Harvey wrote: Also proves you can manipulate stats to give the result you want if you dig deep enough and look for numbers that support the arguement you are trying to make.
How cynical.

Take for example the fact that we have loss most when Simona is absent 2014-15. It's not an argument at all, I didn't look at the numbers with any angle in mind, just curious who we fared worst without.

Don't be afraid of stats, unless you are naive and/or lazy. Anyone can cherry pick data, sure, but they can also lie, stretch truth, mislead, misrepresent with anything that comes out of their mouth. Listen to what they say, do some research and make up your mind.

The alternative to stats is... gossip? Opinions? Hearsay?

The world is too big and complicated and full of dimwits, you gotta be able to try and quantify things. Speaking to almost anyone in public service, finance, gambling, science.
Not having a go, you have produced a load of stats with a number of variables & people can draw their own conclusions. The title of the thread.....

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Post by southerntiger » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 10:33 am

jirskyr wrote:
southerntiger wrote:
Eddie wrote:Without the bloke some don't want here.

Hopefully we can improve on that record the next few weeks.

We did play really well last year against Souths last year, but sadly it was a one off.
Its a meaningless stat. Whats our record over that period with him? Not much better. And you take any regular player out of your spine, it will be a struggle particularly when you dont have a ready replacement as we didnt over that period. Iosefa, Luani and Halatau. Not exactly pressing for a first grade spot elsewhere.
It's 45.71% with Farah last two years. It's hugely better with him, but you do make a point that your win ratio should be better with the major players on the field, otherwise you are paying a lot of money for someone who you do better without.

I do not agree that it's meaningless, but it has to be looked at in the context of other players as well. I was surprised when I first found out that we lose more when Simona is absent, but it correlates with last year and our worst performances occurring when the first-choice centres were out.
Fair response. However, I stand by the view it doesn't mean much in the context of the following:

- when Farah has been out, mainly in the middle of the season and through origin, we have tended to have a big injury toll or other key players out i.e. Woods in Origin.
- the backs ups to Farah during that period weren't first grade quality. Cherry is.
- our whole structure was designed around Farah. Most clubs have poor records when key players are missing, not always because the key player is the best player in his position but because the club trains around that player.
- Farah influence declined significantly last year. This was due to both age and deliberate design. Two years ago he was a far better player and far more integral to our success IMO. Taylor did a good job last year of placing less focus on one player, although it may have resulted in some short term pain.

Simona is a good player but our record without him says more about our lack of depth in that position and that we often have had to reshuffle players when a player is injured. Fortunately, Taylor has built far more depth in all positions across the park. Again, the Simona stats have more to do, in my view, as to the fact that injuries tend to pile up at the same time in a season, particularly ours over the last few years.


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Post by gallagher » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 9:38 pm

Robbie who?
Hahaha

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 10:47 pm

3/13, 23% in the last two and a bit years.

Jokes aside, it is very pleasing that we're missing two key members of the spine (particularly one who our success has depended heavily on in the past,) and can still get the cookies over a relatively full strength opposition.
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Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...

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Post by Eddie » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 11:54 pm

Really encouraging start to the season.

When you can win without your hooker and halfback it means you have some depth.

Well done WT and Taylor on a impressive first up win.

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Post by Harvey » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 11:55 pm

3 from 14 @ 21.43 %

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Sat 05 Mar, 2016 11:58 pm

Harvey wrote:3 from 14 @ 21.43 %
Haha, of course.

I suppose if one is to be a smartarse he best be sure he's factually correct first :)
"This club means a lot to me and I really love this club, I love playing here, I love playing with all of the boys, it's what I've known for pretty much all of my life and I'm happy to be here." - Luke Brooks.

Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...

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Post by happy tiger » Sun 06 Mar, 2016 4:54 am

I wonder what our season winning percentage will be if what JT classes as our best centre combination plays 24 rounds .........

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Post by southerntiger » Sun 06 Mar, 2016 1:55 pm

happy tiger wrote:I wonder what our season winning percentage will be if what JT classes as our best centre combination plays 24 rounds .........
What are you referring to Happy? Does Taylor have a preferred centre pairing other than Naiqama and Simona?

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