Run Home and Finals Hopes

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happy tiger
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Re: Run Home and Finals Hopes

Post by happy tiger » Sun 22 Jul, 2018 8:47 pm

cqtiger wrote:
Sun 22 Jul, 2018 7:30 pm
We are realistically 3 wins from the top 8.

4 points out of the 8 but nearly 30 points worse off For/against (equates to another win needed), and we have to play the Raiders down there - our bogey team that always puts points on us.

Anyway, Farah and Mbye have made us a better team, so here’s hoping.
We are one good win against the Dogs and Brisbane ,Penrith or Warriors losing 13+ away from being one win behind

The way the Sharks are playing they could give it to the Broncs Who knows with the Titans v Warriors , Titans show up and the could beat the Warriors ,bounce back and Manly will test the Panthers

I'm not counting my chickens before they are hatched , but in the modern game things can change very quickly , good or bad


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Post by happy tiger » Sun 22 Jul, 2018 9:21 pm

Just give us a fighters chance in Round 25 , that's all we can ask

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Post by AnnandaleTiger » Sun 22 Jul, 2018 9:27 pm

Looking at the draw it seems a lot of teams fighting for points are playing similar teams. We have to hope to beat these teams, and that these teams topple our opponents.

Dogs
Knights
Raiders
Souths

All feature heavy across the board. Riff and warriors look most likely to drop.

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Post by Kerry Cogger » Sun 22 Jul, 2018 9:47 pm

MacDougall wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 12:04 pm
clifferdSH wrote:
Tue 17 Jul, 2018 11:59 am
We need to beat souffs atleast once in the two games we play them. This weekend is the best chance and would give us enormous confidence. I reckon they get us in the last round as they fine tune for the finals though

Saints at leichhardt I reckon we roll them again, based on their last few weeks they are puss and so long as we aren't complacent every game bar the raiders away should be certainties

But the tigers never surprise me so we probably beat souffs twice and dragons then lose to garbage like manly and dogs
Haha that's the fear I have too.

I think we will beat Souths twice and the Dragons. I just hope we can turn it around and beat Canberra. Imagine if we beat Souths twice, Dragons twice, Storm twice, Melbourne once and miss the finals?
And an inch away from beating the roosters twice too.

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Post by Cultured Bogan » Mon 23 Jul, 2018 4:10 pm

Warriors are probably most likely to fall out of the 8 of the three mentioned. They have a weird run home too, with Titans, Dogs, Saints, Penrith, Knights and Raiders. The Dogs would be the only side I'd say they are a certainty to beat.
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Cuando llegue el día, y estoy parado a las puertas del cielo, será Dios pidiendo mi perdón...


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Post by Juro » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am

Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by clifferdSH » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:54 am

Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
If we win all our remaining surely we get a blow out score or 2 in there somewhere

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Post by Spud Murphy » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 9:44 am

Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
I really hate that we are now in this position of having to win every game and rely on others to lose just to get a spot in the finals, especially after the way we started the season! If we could've maintained that good form for even just a few more games we wouldn't have to be friggin around with all this will we, won't we make it BS.

Apart from having to wait for other teams to crash, how hard is it to win 8 games straight in this competition! Yet this is what we have to do to have any chance of making it.

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Post by happy tiger » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:00 am

Spud Murphy wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 9:44 am
Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
I really hate that we are now in this position of having to win every game and rely on others to lose just to get a spot in the finals, especially after the way we started the season! If we could've maintained that good form for even just a few more games we wouldn't have to be friggin around with all this will we, won't we make it BS.

Apart from having to wait for other teams to crash, how hard is it to win 8 games straight in this competition! Yet this is what we have to do to have any chance of making it.
Beats most other season when after 17 rounds we are hoping multiple teams get kicked out of the comp for exceeding the cap

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Post by Juro » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:39 am

Spud Murphy wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 9:44 am
Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
I really hate that we are now in this position of having to win every game and rely on others to lose just to get a spot in the finals, especially after the way we started the season! If we could've maintained that good form for even just a few more games we wouldn't have to be friggin around with all this will we, won't we make it BS.

Apart from having to wait for other teams to crash, how hard is it to win 8 games straight in this competition! Yet this is what we have to do to have any chance of making it.
This season seems to be heading in a very different direction to most other seasons. Normally, winning 50% of your matches and having a positive F/A will be good enough to scrape in. If we win our next 6, we will have won 15 out of 24, and are still unlikely to make it. The problem is that the lesser teams have won so few games.

Just our luck, I guess...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by GNR4LIFE » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:48 am

Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:39 am
Spud Murphy wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 9:44 am
Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
I really hate that we are now in this position of having to win every game and rely on others to lose just to get a spot in the finals, especially after the way we started the season! If we could've maintained that good form for even just a few more games we wouldn't have to be friggin around with all this will we, won't we make it BS.

Apart from having to wait for other teams to crash, how hard is it to win 8 games straight in this competition! Yet this is what we have to do to have any chance of making it.
This season seems to be heading in a very different direction to most other seasons. Normally, winning 50% of your matches and having a positive F/A will be good enough to scrape in. If we win our next 6, we will have won 15 out of 24, and are still unlikely to make it. The problem is that the lesser teams have won so few games.

Just our luck, I guess...
The top 8 is that congested that if we won every match till the finals, we’d go close to the top 4. As it is, we win tonight and we’re 4 points off 6th.

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Post by tig_prmz » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:53 am

it's good to at least have some hope

previous lots of seasons, we're "re-building" for next year by the time roud 20 comes around
My Round 1 Team 2018

1. lolo 2. noffa 3. suli 4. milne 5. fonua
6. reynolds 7. brooks
8. packer 9. ET 10. Twal
11. McQuen 12. Lawrence 13. Eiso
14. Matulino 15. McIllwrick 16. Sue 17. Aloiai
18. Marsters 19. Benji 20. Grant 21. K Naiqama
Next: Liddle, MCK, Felise, MWZ, Thompson, Rochow, Gamble

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Post by Liddy » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 11:26 am

Our only hope is to replace the Warriors in the eight...but I can't see it happening.

On my calculations, the Warriors will finish on 32 points and we will probably get 28.

I've given the Warriors losses to Dragons and Penrith.

Our only hope is to win all our remaining games, but I can't see that happening.

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Post by Tigerstruck » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 12:33 pm

Juro wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 8:50 am
Just to clarify, we are not 100% guaranteed to get into the top 8, even if we win all our remaining 6 games. Here is a ladder I mocked up based on us winning all games, and other results going to the team which is ranked higher on the ladder at the start of that round.

Team Pts F-A
Storm 40 184
Dragons 38 163
Rabbits 36 144
Roosters 34 161
Panthers 34 91
Sharks 34 67
Broncos 32 25
Warriors 32 11
Wests 32 -16
Titans 20 -134
Knights 20 -155
Raiders 18 25
Manly 14 -113
Cowboys 12 -134
Bulldogs 10 -127
Parra 10 -192

We still need someone to fall over, or to drastically improve our F/A.
Gives us even more incentive to really rise for the Dogs and Manly

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Post by Spud Murphy » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 12:34 pm

tig_prmz wrote:
Fri 27 Jul, 2018 10:53 am
it's good to at least have some hope

previous lots of seasons, we're "re-building" for next year by the time roud 20 comes around
Yes well this is true. It’s been a while since we were actually even in the mix for the top 8. I don’t know if this will help to dull the pain and heartbreak if we end up finishing 9th though.

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Post by pdenny77 » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 1:10 pm

I'm erring on the side of pessimism and if I'm wrong I'll step back from the cliff.

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Post by TigerSJ » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 1:56 pm

As Happy T posted....
"Beats most other season when after 17 rounds we are hoping multiple teams get kicked out of the comp for exceeding the cap".

This season we are hoping for a win each week to make the 8 - in recent past years I was hoping for a win to avoid the spoon!!

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Post by will1999 » Fri 27 Jul, 2018 2:56 pm

i'm surprised we are such big favourites in betting odds against bulldogs

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