If Luai were to leave, I think Ivan is underestimating the impact it will have on his team.
This prospective out, not unlike Api's, will be more impactful than the likes of Kikau, Burton, Crichton, etc.
Their best player is clearly Nathan. But having Luai in the team poses a second legitimate threat in the halves and on the other side of the field. It can't be underestimated how much easier it is for defences to load up on a singular dominant half when their halves partner doesn't offer much, as would be the case finding a replacement 5/8th for them.
Penrith have made a habit on this run of having a (somewhat) experienced backup NSW-level half at the ready to step in when required, rather than a raw junior half. This is clearly a nod to consistency over anything else. We have seen this with Kurt Falls, Jock Madden, Jaemon Salmon, Tyrone May and more recently Jack Cogger. All of them came in, executed on a VERY simple game plan and allowed the class around them to get them over the line. I guess Brad Schneider is their 2024 model. But with a significant portion of that class leaving over the last few years, that will continue to become more difficult a plan to pull off.
Now, for all Penrith's junior nursery accomplishments, heading into 24/25 and beyond, they don't have an heir-apparent in the juniors that we have seen a clear pathway to being the obvious next in line, as Isaiya Katoa was before the Dolphins nabbed him. I know there's no shortage of talent there, but it doesn't seem the transition is right if Luai were to depart.
I think they're making a mistake by letting this run its course this way.
But also, it's Penrith, so f_ck 'em.