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I'm uneasy about restricting our citizens rights to come home too, but we are already turning our backs on citizens internally. Remember that Queensland hospitals are only for Queenslanders. I don't know the answer, so it would be great for someone to help me here. Is the probability greater...

I agree with you. I'm just trying to be transparent about the flaws.

Thanks for the compliment. I wasn't debating the scientific principal though, just the level of confidence on the scientific output.

Doesn't answer my question though. The probability of dying from Covid might fall too.

Thanks for those definitions. Not sure what it has to do with my post though.

I think we need to careful with this. Although I certainly agree with the sentiment here. How long is it before something becomes mainstream? If something becomes mainstream, does all research need to stop? It would seem to be a huge waste of resources for smart people to be researching...

Are we working with total probabilities or conditional probabilities here? ie. the probability of catching Covid say 10%, the probability of dying once caught, say 2%, total probability of dying from Covid, 0.2%. Have I got this right? The probabilities in the link seem to be a bit different...

What would be the theme of my rally? Better education for all? Stop out politicians from acting myopically? Not sure many people would attend. It would have to be a Zoom rally though. I don't like disinformation being put out either. That is why I am against simple summary statistics being...

Of course governments get advice from a broad range of experts, but that doesn't mean that policy actions are inline with the best evidence. I know that Treasury modeling can be influenced by the politicians who commission the research. These parameters can be set by ideology rather than the...

@TillLindemann I'll answer both here. I think I have made my views pretty clear, but I'll state them here . I believe policy decisions should be made from the best available evidence. The Covid response is more than just Covid deaths per million. It is about how our lives are affected by it...

Now you are making an assumption about my assumptions. I have never stated that we should let Covid get out of control. You are making a straw-man argument here. This is about enriching a debate around mitigation vs. elimination. It is not binary but rather a scale of possible policy...

And what exactly is my opinion?

Completely agree with both of you in regards to a dedicated quarantine facility. It's a massive policy blunder.

You are right to be asking questions like that. These factors should be taken into account. Simply basing inferences on a simple statistic is not science. It can often be misleading and no researcher worth their salt would do that. I ask that we open our minds to multiple factors to address a...

**You are presenting a false choice between health and the economy. ** What a complete an utter mischaracterisation of my posting. If this is your takeaway it demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of the literature. The literature points to a relationship between the economy and health...

In regards to the relationship between recessions and health outcomes you could consider https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12889-016-2720-y.pdf http://rricketts.ba.ttu.edu/sullivan_vonwachter_job%20displacement%20and%20mortality_qje.pdf...

What if mitigating a recession saved lives?

Wow, that simple! Do you think it would be good to try to prevent a recession? or at least mitigate one?

What if there is a relationship between recessions and health outcomes?

It is entirely reasonable to suggest that locking people down would restrict the movement of the virus. As I suggested earlier, if our entire aim was to eliminate the virus we should have our doors welded shut. If that is the policy response, then we would only see minimal deaths due to Covid...