Now that we have a few games under our belt for the season, I think it’s time for me to start looking at where we are, similar to what I did last year (but with a snazzier title).
5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, -49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?
Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.
Here is the graph of our progress to date, compared against a few of the more recent and/or interesting years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.
Other key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Souths are 22%)
- 14% chance of finishing in top 4
- 8% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 15%, Panthers are 14%, Bulldogs are 13%)
Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blow-out still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.
I have tried having more complicated models, taking into account a higher chance of winning at home, but it doesn’t have a significant impact on the results because most teams have a relatively even distribution of home and away games throughout the year. I’ve also taken into account the relative position on the table, giving an indication of relative strength, but this gives extreme results.