The J(uro) Curve

@coolcat:

Are we going to enjoy your work this year?

Yes. I like to wait until we are a month or so into the comp so we can actually see something though. I also need to set up my model for the new year.

Just realised I never finished my summary from last year too. Got too hectic at work in October…

God the 2018 series was depressing. went from 81% chance to 0% chance of making the 8 with 2 rounds remaining.

Ugh.

Welcome back for another ride of the curve. And so far this year, it is looking very familiar. The rollercoaster goes up (at least a bit) but will it do the big plunge this time???

It is a very strange table at the moment, with 3 teams coming equal first and 7 teams coming equal last. This is really testing my model…

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Key numbers after 7 rounds:

  • 5% chance of minor premiership
    – Roosters are 23%
    – Storm are 22%
    – Rabbitohs are 20%
    – The bunch coming last are all about 0.5%

  • 26% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 63%, Storm are 62%, Rabbitohs are 61%, Bulldogs are 5%)

  • 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Roosters and Storm are 88%, Rabbitohs are 87%, Bulldogs are 22%)

  • 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Bulldogs are 47%, Panthers are 45%, Roosters are 2%)

  • 2% chance of wooden spoon
    – Bulldogs are 14%
    – Cowboys, Panthers, Titans are 13%
    – Knights are 12%
    – Broncos and Warriors are 11%
    – Roosters and Storm are 0.2%

last edited by Juro

Woohoo. Love the J(uro) Curve 😎😎😎😎

Top 8 would be epic …
Panthers to spoon would be epic !

One week up, one week down (and a little bit further down than we went up) is so often the story of our seasons, before either imploding (usually) or soaring upwards (very rarely).

The loss, and heavy damage to our F/A saw our chances dip to 48%. We are still slightly above our average from 2000-18 (46%).

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Key numbers after 8 rounds:

2% chance of minor premiership (-3%)
– Roosters are 28% (+6%)
– Rabbitohs are 26% (+6%)
– Storm are 13% (-9%)
– The bunch coming last (Bulldogs through to Warriors) are all about 0.1% - 0.2% (-0.4%)

16% chance of finishing in top 4 (-9%) (Roosters are 73%, Rabbitohs are 70%, Storm are 53%, Bulldogs are 2%)

48% chance of finishing in top 8 (-11%) (Roosters are 94%, Rabbitohs are 93%, Storm are 84%, Bulldogs are 16%)

19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%) (Bulldogs are 56%, Panthers are 52%, Roosters are 1%)

3% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 17% (+3%)
– Panthers are 16% (+3%)
– Broncos are 15% (+4%)
– Titans are 15% (+2%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Rabbitohs are 0.01% (-0.2%)

The mid-season zig zag continues, and we had a good zig on Friday night. Not only a win but a healthy boost to the F/A. Throw in a few other big wins and losses to other teams and we are somehow in 6th place on the ladder. After seeing what the Storm did to the Eels last week, I am fearing a big zag for Round 10 though…

But as of Round 9, we are sitting at 59% chance of making the finals. This puts us at our third most likely chance in our 20 seasons, behind only 2000 (80%) and 2018 (61%). The average chance at this stage is 44% and falling.

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Key numbers after 9 rounds:

  • list item3% chance of minor premiership (+1%)
    – Roosters are 31% (+2%)
    – Rabbitohs are 31% (+6%)
    – Storm are 19% (+5%)
    – Bulldogs, Panthers and Titans are all about 0.02%

  • 22% chance of finishing in top 4 (+6%) (Roosters and Rabbitohs are 79%, Storm are 66%, Bulldogs are 1%)

  • 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (+12%) (Roosters and Rabbitohs are 96%, Storm are 92%, Bulldogs are 11%)

  • 12% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-7%) (Bulldogs are 63%, Panthers are 62%, Titans are 60%, Roosters are 0.4%)

  • 1% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
    – Bulldogs are 22% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 21% (+5%)
    – Titans are 19% (+4%)
    – Cowboys are 10% (+3%)
    – Warriors are 14% (+3%)
    – Roosters are the first team to reach 0.00% (-0.1%)

Brilliant work mate; do not fear the zag!

@Juro thanks and good to be on the rise again.

The mid-season zig zag continues, and it was time for the zag. Given the close margin and other results, we did not drop as far as the previous rise, and are now sitting at 52%. This puts us at our 6th most likely chance in our 20 seasons and 10% above average chance (42%).

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Key numbers after 10 rounds:

  • 1% chance of minor premiership (-2%)
    – Rabbitohs are 39% (+6%)
    – Storm are 24% (+5%)
    – Roosters are 23% (-8%)
    – Panthers and Titans are about 0.01%

  • 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Rabbitohs are 86%, Storm are 74%, Roosters are 74%, Panthers are 0.4%)

  • 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-7%) (Rabbitohs are 98%, Storm are 95%, Roosters are 95%, Panthers are 6%)

  • 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+3%) (Panthers are 73%, Titans are 69%, Bulldogs are 55%, Rabbitohs are 0.1%)

  • 2% chance of wooden spoon (-%)
    – Panthers are 30% (+9%)
    – Titans are 26% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 15% (-7%)
    – Dragons are 6% (+3%)
    – Rabbitohs join the Roosters on 0.00%

FYI, we would have been up to 69% chance of making the finals if we had held on to our 2 point lead on Thursday night…

If maybe’s and butts…

just win…

Love the J Curve thread.

However it doest show how improved we are as a club.

Im hoping for semis in 2019 but im hanging for 2020 under madge.

@Spartan117 said in The J(uro) Curve:

Love the J Curve thread.

However it doest show how improved we are as a club.

Im hoping for semis in 2019 but im hanging for 2020 under madge.

no point having hope… because we WILL make the SEMIS

Oh no, we zagged when we should have zigged. For the first time this season, we have lost more games than we have won, and the curve has fallen well below 50%. We are now sitting at 42%. This puts us at our 12th most likely chance in our 20 seasons and smack-bang on our average chance.

alt text

Key numbers after 11 rounds:

  • 0.4% chance of minor premiership (-2%)
    – Rabbitohs are 48% (+9%)
    – Storm are 31% (+7%)
    – Roosters are 12% (-10%)
    – Bulldogs, Panthers and Titans are about 0.01%

  • 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Rabbitohs are 92%, Storm are 85%, Roosters are 66%, Bulldogs are 1%)

  • 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%) (Rabbitohs are 99%, Storm are 98%, Roosters are 93%, Bulldogs are 9%)

  • 22% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+7%) (Bulldogs are 67%, Panthers are 66%, Titans are 60%, Rabbitohs are 0.02%)

  • 3% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
    – Panthers are 24% (-6%)
    – Bulldogs are 23% (+8%)
    – Titans are 19% (-7%)
    – Dragons are 10% (+4%)
    – Storm join the Rabbitohs and Roosters on 0.00%

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