The J(uro) Curve



  • Hmmmm, looking familiar.



  • We’ve had a tough couple of weeks facing the best teams in the comp. Luckily this doesn’t calculate any upside, because we should have a decent amount of that. And with a little luck hopefully we’ll be comfortably over 50% in the next month or so.



  • Unfortunately, the curve seems to turn into a steep drop around this time every year. They say hope springs eternal, but for tigers fans it is usually around 12-15 weeks



  • Poor old curve seems to work like a lie detector attached to Nick Politis when asked about the salary cap



  • Yes, as others have suggested, this is looking all too familiar. 3 losses in a row (ignoring the bye) has seen our chances halve from 59% to 30%.

    alt text

    I have been flat out at work, so didn’t have time to post last week. With the bye, we dropped by less than 1%. All percentage changes below are the difference between Round 11 and 13.

    Key numbers after 13 rounds:

    • 0.1% chance of minor premiership (-0.3%)
      – Storm are 49% (+18%)
      – Rabbitohs are 27% (-21%)
      – Roosters are 9% (-3%)
      – Bulldogs are the first team to reach 0.00%

    • 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Storm are 91%, Rabbitohs are 83%, Roosters are 55%, Bulldogs are 0.03%)

    • 30% chance of finishing in top 8 (-12%) (Storm are 99%, Rabbitohs are 98%, Roosters are 89%, Bulldogs are 2%)

    • 32% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+10%) (Bulldogs are 85%, Titans are 60%, Warriors are 49%, Storm are 0.02%)

    • 5% chance of wooden spoon (+2%)
      – Bulldogs are 43% (+20%)
      – Titans are 15% (-4%)
      – Warriors are 11% (+3%)
      – Panthers are 10% (-14%)
      – 3 teams are on 0.00%



  • alt text



  • Why is it that round 26 every year ends on zero percent, but the average shows 15. That is building false hope



  • @Harvey said in The J(uro) Curve:

    Why is it that round 26 every year ends on zero percent, but the average shows 15. That is building false hope

    The average is for all seasons from 2000 to 2018. The individual lines only show for 2015-19. The problem is that we haven’t made the finals in what feels like a lifetime…



  • @Cultured_Bogan said in The J(uro) Curve:

    alt text

    Did we pull the chutes in time?



  • @Sco77y said in The J(uro) Curve:

    @Cultured_Bogan said in The J(uro) Curve:

    alt text

    Did we pull the chutes in time?

    Can I suggest that the Juro Curve is renamed the Juro Circle? It represents so much…

    0 Points scored at times
    0 chance of making finals
    0 people have an ambition to want to play for us
    0 Coaches retire gracefully after being with us
    0 players improve after joining us
    Year, after year, after year around we go.



  • Pull up! Pull up!!!

    alt text

    Is this the win that kicks our season in the right direction? No, you don’t need to answer that. Going off the model, we have a little bit more chance this week, improving to 37%. This still leaves us 6% below our overall average, and is only our 11th best season.

    Key numbers after 14 rounds:

    • 0.1% chance of minor premiership (-%)
      – Storm are 62% (+13%)
      – Rabbitohs are 16% (-11%)
      – Roosters are 12% (+3%)
      – Titans join the Bulldogs on 0.00%

    • 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (+1%)
      – Storm are 96% (+5%)
      – Rabbitohs are 76% (-7%)
      – Roosters are 68% (+13%)
      – Raiders are 56% (+10%)
      – Bulldogs are the first team to reach 0.00%

    • 37% chance of finishing in top 8 (+7%)
      – Storm are 99.8% (+0.7%)
      – Rabbitohs are 97% (-1%)
      – Roosters are 95% (+5%)
      – Raiders are 92% (+6%)
      – Sea Eagles are 76% (+12%)
      – Knights are 68% (-9%)
      – Sharks are 65% (-7%)
      – Eels are 55% (+14%)
      – Cowboys are 27% (-9%)
      – Panthers are 23% (+6%)
      – Warriors are 22% (+5%)
      – Broncos are 20% (-13%)
      – Dragons are 19% (-11%)
      – Titans are 5% (-5%)
      – Bulldogs are 1% (-1%)

    • 23% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-9%)
      – Bulldogs are 92% (+7%)
      – Titans are 69% (+9%)
      – Dragons are 42% (+11%)
      – Broncos are 40% (+11%)
      – Warriors are 39% (-10%)
      – Storm are 0.01% (-0.01%)

    • 2% chance of wooden spoon (-3%)
      – Bulldogs are 56% (+12%)
      – Titans are 18% (+3%)
      – Dragons are 6% (+1%)
      – Broncos are 6% (+2%)
      – 3 teams are on 0.00%



  • Looking at the Curve’s prediction we are in line for another 9th place finish



  • @happy_tiger Surely we can sneak in above the Sea Eagles or Eels? But I see your point (9th on %)



  • @tiger_scott said in The J(uro) Curve:

    @happy_tiger Surely we can sneak in above the Sea Eagles or Eels? But I see your point (9th on %)

    It is showing 9th because we are in 9th. There are still 11 rounds of football left to decide final placings. Time will tell for sure…


Log in to reply
 

Recent Topics