@Juro hi there and thanks for your work all year.
Just asking about broncos. They can miss out if they lose and we tie with the sharks. Does that have much of an effect?
Thanks coolcat. My model is based on simplified assumptions. While there is a remote chance of draws in real life, I haven’t modelled this. My simplified assumption is that each game has a 50/50 chance of winning and no chance of a draw. There have been 7 draws in the last decade, so the chances are about 0.4%. So if I was to include draws, the chances of a win or loss would fall to 49.8%.
Now, let’s look at the possible outcomes:
- Broncos win (49.8%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 24.8004%
- Broncos lose (49.8%): We would need to either win or draw to make it (50.2%) - total chance of 24.9996%
- Broncos draw (0.4%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 0.1992%
Therefore, including the draw would actually worsen our chance of making it. It would fall from 50% to 49.9992%.
Of course, this is based on the overall assumption that each game is independent of each other game. As I said, my model is based on simplified assumptions…
Time to talk about the curve again. No, not the COVID Curve, the J Curve! And I wonder how many waves we will get this year…
So far, we have done our usual trick, win-lose-win-lose and the curve has bobbled about in the middle. With only 20 rounds this year, the value of each game is higher than normal, so the bobbling is a bit larger. And so with 4 wins and 3 losses, we are sitting at 62%, which is better than we have managed since Round 2 last year.
Key numbers after 7 rounds:
6% chance of minor premiership (+2% from last round)
– Eels are 26% (+5%)
– Panthers are 18% (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-0.2%)
29% chance of finishing in top 4 (+7%)
– Eels are 65% (+7%)
– Panthers are 58% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-2%)
62% chance of finishing in top 8 (+11%)
– Eels are 90% (+5%)
– Panthers are 85% (+8%)
– Bulldogs are 9% (-6%)
11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-8%)
– Bulldogs are 67% (+10%)
– Broncos are 51% (+10%)
– Eels are 2% (-2%)
1% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
– Bulldogs are 26% (+7%)
– Broncos are 15% (+3%)
– Eels are 0.1% (-0.1%)
Does this take the strength of the teams we play in the rest of the comp into account?
All games are a toss of the coin, 50% win/lose scenario, with a random adjustment to the for and against. It takes into account the games already played, then simulates the rest of the season. I’ve tried in the past to take account of team strengths and home ground advantage, but it didn’t really affect the end result significantly.