The J(uro) Curve

@TheDaBoss said in The J(uro) Curve:

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

You’d probably be looking at another jump of more than 10%, but this would also depend on the results of other games.

Yay the curve is back !!!

Love the curve, but it’s always curving the wrong way halfway through the season

@TheDaBoss said in The J(uro) Curve:

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

And a win against Souffs a week later the thing will explode

@Elderslie_Tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:

@TheDaBoss said in The J(uro) Curve:

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

And a win against Souffs a week later the thing will explode

I’ll explode if that happens …Geo will become a monk …Hobbo will sell the Japanese Princess

@Sabre said in The J(uro) Curve:

There’s a lot of symmetry year-to-year in those curves.
We seem to follow a similar pattern every year.

Thats what Madge has been saying things have got to change and so far so good

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

@old_man_tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Good pickup, being less rounds this year, something like that would make a lot of sense.

@old_man_tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

@Juro said in The J(uro) Curve:

@old_man_tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

Thanks mate, as always love your work and hope the club break the drought that started with you becoming a member haha

😁

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here.

As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are 20 rounds (hopefully). In recent years we have had 25, but going further back we had 26.

alt text

Key numbers with 12 rounds to go:

  • 3% chance of minor premiership (-3% from last round)
    – Eels are 32% (+7%)
    – Panthers are 22% (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

  • 19% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
    – Eels are 75% (+9%)
    – Panthers are 67% (+10%)
    – Storm are 55% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 0.3% (-1%)

  • 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
    – Eels are 94% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 91% (+6%)
    – Storm are 86% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 5% (-4%)

  • 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are 75% (+8%)
    – Broncos are 59% (+8%)
    – Eels are 0.5% (-1%)

  • 1% chance of wooden spoon (-)
    – Bulldogs are 31% (+5%)
    – Broncos are 18% (+3%)
    – Eels are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

last edited by Juro

@Juro said in The J(uro) Curve:

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here.

As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are 20 rounds (hopefully). In recent years we have had 25, but going further back we had 26.

alt text

Key numbers with 12 rounds to go:

  • 3% chance of minor premiership (-3% from last round)
    – Eels are 32% (+7%)
    – Panthers are 22% (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

  • 19% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
    – Eels are 75% (+9%)
    – Panthers are 67% (+10%)
    – Storm are 55% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 0.3% (-1%)

  • 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
    – Eels are 94% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 91% (+6%)
    – Storm are 86% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 5% (-4%)

  • 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are 75% (+8%)
    – Broncos are 59% (+8%)
    – Eels are 0.5% (-1%)

  • 1% chance of wooden spoon (-)
    – Bulldogs are 31% (+5%)
    – Broncos are 18% (+3%)
    – Eels are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

Confused here, as isn’t your graph the same as the last one showing us at around 62%?

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I’ve edited the graph now.

last edited by Juro

@Juro said in The J(uro) Curve:

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I’ve edited the graph now.

Thanks, let us hope that we are heading upwards for your next revision.

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