Why we need to win Saturday and finish 4th

http://www.nrl.com/stats-insider-why-the-top-eight-order-matters/tabid/10874/newsid/64544/default.aspx

Since the McIntyre System was introduced in 1999 every single grand final winner started the finals in the top four.
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But it hasn’t been all rosy for minor premiers. They have only won the major title four times (33 per cent); team two has held the premiership trophy aloft just twice (17 per cent) while teams three and four have each won the title three times (25 per cent). It appears finishing in the top two hasn’t turned out to be the blessing it is supposed to be.
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(As a small sidenote, the team finishing third in the minor premiership has a three-from-three record and the team running fourth has a two-from-two record when they have made the grand final – so they tend to make it and win it, or not make it at all. Team two has been runner up on three occasions.)
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In terms of finals series streaks (this is discounting whatever winning streak a side may have been on entering the finals) on nine of 12 occasions the team that hoisted the trophy went through the finals without a loss, meaning only three teams have successfully recovered from an opening week playoff loss to win the premiership.
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Here is the breakdown of all teams’ results in Week One.

Team One: 10 wins, 2 losses (83 per cent win ratio)
Team Two: 7 wins, 5 losses (58 per cent win ratio)
Team Three: 5 wins, 7 losses (42 per cent win ratio)
Team Four: 8 wins, 4 losses (67 per cent win ratio)
Team Five: 4 wins, 8 losses (33 per cent win ratio)
Team Six: 7 wins, 5 losses (58 per cent win ratio)
Team Seven: 5 wins, 7 losses (42 per cent win ratio)
Team Eight: 2 wins, 10 Losses (17 per cent win ratio)

I think history will mean nothing this year. Even if we finish 4th this year the final will be a danger game. I think the Dragons are a good chance of winning and the Warriors seem to have the wood on the Broncos. That could see 4th and 8th team out (if both Broncos and Warriors win this week which they are likely too). I think we would almost be better finishing 7th and facing a depleted Many side.


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AJ If you come 4th you cant be knocked out in the first week of the finals. Mate we want to be 4th not 7th!!!

@matty tiepie:

AJ If you come 4th you cant be knocked out in the first week of the finals.

Not true.

1 v 8 - 8 wins
2 v 7 - 7 wins
3 v 6 - 6 wins
4 v 5 - 5 wins

4 and 3 are goooonnnnneeee.

Unlikely, but it can happen.

4th v 5th is potentially very dangerous game this year, especially if its us v the cowboys.

In that both saints and NZ are behind us but have a decent chance of winning, knocking loser of 4 v 5.

Of course u can be knocked out in the 1st week if u finish 4th. The only 2 teams safe under the McIntyre system in week 1 are teams 1 and 2. There is less chance of being knocked out but the possibility is there…

I stand corrected then but i always here coaches say we want top 4 to get a second chance! Time Sheens himself said it yesterday.

Really I just don’t want to risk having to play New Zealand in New Zealand. Or Brisbane in Brisbane!

Who has been the highest finishing side knocked out in the 1st week, in 2004 Penrith beat St Merge to end their season and the Steelers were 4th or 5th?.

@Leroy The Tigers Fan:

Who has been the highest finishing side knocked out in the 1st week, in 2004 Penrith beat St Merge to end their season and the Steelers were 4th or 5th?.

I think to date 5th is the highest position to go out in week 1

We don’t really want to travel to QLD or New Zealand.

Let’s pray Cowboys beat Warriors in extra time.

We then play them at home meaning Cowboys have 2 tough road trips in 2 weeks.

You have to beat the top sides to win the Grand Final.

4th = wests tigers to beat sharks, penrith to beat dragons and warriors to beat cowboys = wests tigers vs warriors next week at sfs?


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