@NT_Tiger This is my screensaver on my computer…
Best posts made by Juro

RE: Brooks.... what is he good for??
@LeichhardtTiger said in Brooks.... what is he good for??:
@Spud_Murphy said in Brooks.... what is he good for??:
Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong
Watch the team Song  Brooks is the most unenthusiastic player in the group. BTW Lucy takes over from Nofo at the end and what a Haka! I think Madge has perhaps noticed a cultural shift. NZ coach after all!
Brooks had just finished a bog ordinary performance. He was probably still beating himself up over it. Hard to move on sometimes when things aren’t going your way. Doesn’t mean it will always be like this.

RE: Wests Tigers Team v Cowboys  Rnd 20
Let me see…
 must win game  tick
 favourites  tick
 player milestone celebration  tick (Farah’s first home game after 300)
 Leichhardt Oval  tick
Why do I feel so nervous???

RE: The J(uro) Curve
Time to talk about the curve again. No, not the COVID Curve, the J Curve! And I wonder how many waves we will get this year…
So far, we have done our usual trick, winlosewinlose and the curve has bobbled about in the middle. With only 20 rounds this year, the value of each game is higher than normal, so the bobbling is a bit larger. And so with 4 wins and 3 losses, we are sitting at 62%, which is better than we have managed since Round 2 last year.
Key numbers after 7 rounds:

6% chance of minor premiership (+2% from last round)
– Eels are 26% (+5%)
– Panthers are 18% (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (0.2%) 
29% chance of finishing in top 4 (+7%)
– Eels are 65% (+7%)
– Panthers are 58% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (2%) 
62% chance of finishing in top 8 (+11%)
– Eels are 90% (+5%)
– Panthers are 85% (+8%)
– Bulldogs are 9% (6%) 
11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (8%)
– Bulldogs are 67% (+10%)
– Broncos are 51% (+10%)
– Eels are 2% (2%) 
1% chance of wooden spoon (2%)
– Bulldogs are 26% (+7%)
– Broncos are 15% (+3%)
– Eels are 0.1% (0.1%)


RE: Benji could be playing for rival club this year
Didn’t he come back to give us more depth, not with the assumption of playing every game? We still need him here until we can build more depth in our halves.

RE: The J(uro) Curve
We keep our season alive for another week, edging back towards our club history average. With the Panthers and Broncos losing, our chances are looking a lot better, but there is still so much still to do.
Key numbers after 23 rounds:

0.00% chance of minor premiership ()
– Storm are 95% (+3%)
– Roosters are 5% (2%)
– Raiders join the rest on 0.00% (0.1%) 
0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 ()
– Roosters are the second team to reach 100% (+0.2%)
– Raiders are 80% (10%)
– Sea Eagles are 63% (+15%)
– Rabbitohs are 47% (+13%)
– Eels are 11% (19%) 
31% chance of finishing in top 8 (+18%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 100% (+0.02%)
– Sharks are 84% (+32%)
– Broncos are 60% (11%)
– Panthers are 19% (20%)
– Knights are 5% (14%)
– Bulldogs are 0.4% (+0.3)
– Warriors are 0.03% (5%) 
1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (14%)
– Titans are 100.00% ()
– Dragons are 99% (+14%)
– Cowboys are 75% (14%)
– Warriors are 60% (+29%)
– Bulldogs are 42% (24%)
– Knights are 19% (+11%)
– Panthers are 3% ()
– Broncos are 0.1% ()
– Sharks are the 7th team to reach 0.00% (1%) 
0.00% chance of wooden spoon ()
– Titans are 100% (+1%)
If we managed to win our last 2 games, we have an 89% chance of making the finals. If we win 1 out of 2, we still have a 16% chance. In other words, just keep winning and hope other results fall our way again.


RE: The J(uro) Curve
Think I’ll skip the curve this year, until we reach 0% or 100%. Too much pain!

RE: NRL giving away thousands of tickets to boost Roosters Storm final
This is what you get when you have the same teams playing finals football every year. What happened with Parra and the Raiders? What would happen if we ever make it?

RE: The J(uro) Curve
Wow! The curve turned the right way, seriously! A massive jump, thanks to our win and most of the other results also falling our way. We now find ourselves at 46%. Where will it go from here???
Key numbers after 20 rounds:

0.00% chance of minor premiership ()
– Storm are 92% (+8%)
– Roosters are 3% ()
– Raiders are 3% ()
– Rabbitohs are 2% (7%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.1% (0.2%) 
0.1% chance of finishing in top 4 ()
– Storm are 100.00% (+0.05%)
– Roosters are 87% (+6%)
– Raiders are 84% (+7%)
– Rabbitohs are 75% (16%)
– Sea Eagles are 43% (+6%)
– Eels are 11% ()
– Sharks are 0.5% (0.2%)
– Panthers are 0.04% (2%)
– Broncos are 0.02% (1%)
– Knights are 0.01% (1%)
– Warriors are the 5th team to reach 0.00% 
46% chance of finishing in top 8 (+20%)
– Roosters and Raiders join the Storm and Rabbitohs on 100.00%
– Sea Eagles are 99.7% (+3%)
– Eels are 95% (+9%)
– Sharks are 53% (+19%)
– Panthers are 41% (11%)
– Broncos are 30% (13%)
– Knights are 24% (11%)
– Warriors are 9% (8%)
– Cowboys are 4% (6%)
– Dragons are 0.2% (1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% () 
6% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (16%)
– Titans are 99.7% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are 87% (7%)
– Dragons are 83% (+9%)
– Cowboys are 54% (+10%)
– Warriors are 33% (+6%)
– Knights are 15% (+2%)
– Broncos are 11% (+3%)
– Panthers are 7% (+1%)
– Sharks are 3% (10%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 0.00% 
0.00% chance of wooden spoon (0.5%)
– Titans are 76% (+21%)
– Bulldogs are 12% (20%)
– Dragons are 10% ()
– Cowboys are 1% ()
– Warriors are 0.4% ()
– Broncos are 0.03% (+0.02%)
– Knights are 0.03% ()
– Us, Panthers and Sharks join 6 teams on 0.00%
With 5 rounds to go, we still have 6 teams vying for 2 spots. Thankfully, we are second in the group, just behind the Sharks. Warriors are the 6th team, and virtually out of it. It is amazing that all teams other than the Titans are still at least mathematically still a chance. Glad we are well and truly in the fray!


RE: Aliens.
@Tigerboy I have no doubt that aliens exist, ie life on other planets. However, it is highly doubtful that they have ever come to Earth.
Latest posts made by Juro

RE: The J(uro) Curve
@tiger2135 said in The J(uro) Curve:
@juro said in The J(uro) Curve:
Think I’ll skip the curve this year, until we reach 0% or 100%. Too much pain!
Are we at zero yet?
Without doing the calculations, we are definitely not at 0 yet. Still far too early in the season for such talk…

RE: The J(uro) Curve
Think I’ll skip the curve this year, until we reach 0% or 100%. Too much pain!

RE: Wests Tigers Day  9th of the 9th
Normally our season is over by the start of September, let alone the 9th…

RE: Rowdy and Benji 250th Game this Week
Benji’s milestone games:
 50: 1618 loss to Melbourne
 100: 5610 win over Cronulla
 150: 3218 win over Penrith
 200: 1832 loss to Souths
Chris’ milestone games:
 50: 4024 win over Sydney
 100: 1716 win over Cronulla
 150: 448 loss to Sydney
 200: 2616 win over Nth Qld
All the best for game 250…

RE: The J(uro) Curve
The end of July plummet, you say? Crash and burn, huh? Have a look at the curve, okay!
For anyone who knows their Wests Tigers seasonality, they would know that we would be falling about now, only to have that slight revival over the next few rounds, only for all hope to vanish in the last week or two. The curve shows this in every line excluding the abomination that was 2017. So there is still that carrot that will be dangled in front of us for a few more weeks, only to have it shoved up the other end. But then, 2020 may be different.
With 8 rounds to go, we still have a 36% chance of making the finals (mathematically speaking of course…). And that actually puts us above our 20 year history of failure, with the average only being 31%.
Key numbers with 8 rounds to go:

0.00% chance of minor premiership (0.2% from last round)
– Panthers are 40% (+2%)
– Storm are 27% ()
– Eels are 25% (+1%)
– Roosters are 4% (1%)
– Raiders are 3% ()
– Knights are 0.3% (2%)
– Sharks are 0.7% (0.3%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.1% (0.5%)
– Rabbitohs are 0.1% ()
– Dragons join us and 5 others on 0.00% (0.02%) 
2% chance of finishing in top 4 (4%)
– Panthers are 94% (+5%)
– Storm are 88% (+5%)
– Eels are 87% (+5%)
– Roosters are 49% (+6%)
– Raiders are 37% (+5%)
– Knights are 11% (14%)
– Sharks are 19% (+3%)
– Rabbitohs are 8% (+1%)
– Sea Eagles are 5% (9%)
– Dragons are 0.3% (1%)
– Warriors are 0.1% (0.1%)
– Titans are 0.02% (0.1%)
– Broncos and Bulldogs are the first to reach 0.00% 
36% chance of finishing in top 8 (10%)
– Panthers are 99.9% (+0.6%)
– Storm are 99.8% (+1%)
– Eels are 99.6% (+0.8%)
– Roosters are 95% (+6%)
– Raiders are 90% (+8%)
– Sharks are 79% (+13%)
– Knights are 67% (9%)
– Sea Eagles are 51% (11%)
– Rabbitohs are 51% (+14%)
– Dragons are 13% (8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+4%)
– Cowboys are 4% (3%)
– Titans are 3% (3%)
– Broncos are 2% (3%)
– Bulldogs are 0.7% (1%) 
11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 84% (+5%)
– Broncos are 73% (+7%)
– Titans are 70% (+6%)
– Cowboys are 63% (+8%)
– Warriors are 45% (17%)
– Dragons are 33% (+4%)
– Rabbitohs are 9% (13%)
– Sea Eagles are 7% (+2%)
– Knights are 4% (+1%)
– Sharks are 1% (3%)
– Raiders are 0.2% (1%)
– Roosters are 0.1% (0.4%)
– Eels, Storm and Panthers have all reached 0.00% 
0.4% chance of wooden spoon (0.3%)
– Bulldogs are 33% (+3%)
– Broncos are 23% (+3%)
– Titans are 20% (+2%)
– Cowboys are 14% (+1%)
– Warriors are 6% (8%)
– Dragons are 3% ()
– Rabbitohs are 0.3% (2%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% ()
– Knights are 0.09% ()
– Sharks and Raiders are the 5th and 6th teams to reach 0.00%
So no, our chances of getting the spoon are much lower than our chances of making the 8. In fact, our chance of getting the spoon actually went down this week.


RE: The J(uro) Curve
@Tigerbuck63 said in The J(uro) Curve:
@Juro said in The J(uro) Curve:
Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.
Key numbers with 11 rounds to go:

1% chance of minor premiership (2% from last round)
– Eels are 37% (+5%)
– Panthers are 26% (+5%)
– Storm are 17% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are the only team at 0.00% 
11% chance of finishing in top 4 (8%)
– Eels are 83% (+8%)
– Panthers are 77% (+10%)
– Storm are 65% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 0.2% (0.1%) 
43% chance of finishing in top 8 (9%)
– Eels are 98% (+3%)
– Panthers are 96% (+4%)
– Storm are 92% (+6%)
– Roosters are 86% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (2%) 
19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (+8%)
– Titans are 48% (11%)
– Broncos are 48% (11%)
– Warriors are 47% (+9%)
– Eels are 0.2% (0.4%) 
2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+12%)
– Titans are 11% (6%)
– Broncos are 10% (8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+9%)
– Panthers are 0.03% (0.03%)
– Eels are the only team at 0.00%
Great analysis how often are you updating this information?
From my predictions we can make the 8 this season but any losses against the bottom sides cruel our chances.Think will need 20 points this season to make the 8 on a good for/against and i have us sitting in the 8 with 2 games to go and there against the Storm/Eels.
Wins required against Warriors/Knights/Bulldogs/Rabbits/Manly will make 20 points. Might sound pessimistic that Titans game might still come back to bite us.
I like to play with the ladder predictor on the NRL website. At the moment, if all games are won by the higher team on the ladder, we’ll finish 10th on 16 points.
We need to beat the teams around us, the Knights (Rd 13), Manly (Rd 17) and Rabbitohs (Rd 18), plus all the teams below us and that would only get us to 20 points. And if all the other games went with the higher team, we would finish 9th, 1 point behind the Knights on 21.
So we’re going to need to play well, plus have a bit of luck fall our way.
It can happen. Please let it happen!


RE: The J(uro) Curve
@Jedi_Tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:
what do we need to get in guaranteed 22 points or 20 with a good for and against ?
It is possible (although incredibly unlikely) that we could miss out on F/A with a score of 26.
It is also possible that we could make it with a score of 14.
Looking at likely results, I would say we probably need 22 and even then might need some luck to get in.

RE: The J(uro) Curve
Here we are again. Nine rounds to go, sitting in 9th place. We’re now at 46%, which is still 13% above our average chance with 9 rounds to go. The last time we were in such good shape at this stage of the season was in 2014 (50%).
Key numbers with 9 rounds to go:

0.2% chance of minor premiership (1% from last round)
– Panthers are 37% (+2%)
– Storm are 27% (+4%)
– Eels are 25% ()
– Roosters are 5% ()
– Raiders are 3% ()
– Knights are 2% (4%)
– Sharks are 1% ()
– Sea Eagles are 1% ()
– Rabbitohs are 0.1% (1%)
– Dragons are 0.02% (0.1%)
– Broncos, Titans and Warriors join the Bulldogs and Cowboys at 0.00% 
7% chance of finishing in top 4 (9%)
– Panthers are 89% (+4%)
– Storm are 83% (+9%)
– Eels are 82% (+8%)
– Roosters are 43% (+9%)
– Raiders are 31% (+6%)
– Knights are 25% (16%)
– Sharks are 16% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 13% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 7% (10%)
– Dragons are 2% (3%)
– Warriors are 0.3% (1%)
– Broncos are 0.1% (1%)
– Titans are 0.1% (1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.02% (+0.01%) 
46% chance of finishing in top 8 (10%)
– Panthers are 99% (+1%)
– Storm are 99% (+3%)
– Eels are 99% (+3%)
– Roosters are 88% (+9%)
– Raiders are 82% (+12%)
– Knights are 76% (7%)
– Sharks are 66% (+13%)
– Sea Eagles are 61% (+13%)
– Rabbitohs are 38% (13%)
– Dragons are 20% (9%)
– Cowboys are 7% (5%)
– Warriors are 6% (4%)
– Titans are 6% (4%)
– Broncos are 5% (4%)
– Bulldogs are 2% (+1%) 
10% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 79% (10%)
– Broncos are 66% (+7%)
– Titans are 64% (+5%)
– Warriors are 62% (+4%)
– Cowboys are 55% (+4%)
– Dragons are 29% (+4%)
– Rabbitohs are 21% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 6% (7%)
– Sharks are 4% (6%)
– Knights are 3% ()
– Raiders are 1% (3%)
– Roosters are 0.5% (2%)
– Eels, Storm and Panthers have all reached 0.00% 
0.7% chance of wooden spoon (+0.3%)
– Bulldogs are 30% (17%)
– Broncos are 20% (+6%)
– Titans are 18% (+3%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Cowboys are 13% (+4%)
– Dragons are 3% (+1%)
– Rabbitohs are 2% (+0.4%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% (0.6%)
– Sharks are 0.09% (0.6%)
– Knights are 0.09% (+0.05%)
– Raiders are 0.07% (0.2%)
– Roosters are the 4th team to reach 0.00%
It’s interesting that we now have more chance of making the finals than all the Queensland teams combined (18%).


RE: Tickets for tonight’s game
Hardly surprising. I remember years ago when I went to an away game against them at ANZ Stadium, my kids were little and loved getting their face painted. The artist apologised, saying she wasn’t allowed to use any colours other than blue and yellow. How disgusting!

RE: The J(uro) Curve
@TheDaBoss said in The J(uro) Curve:
@Juro said in The J(uro) Curve:
@happy_tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:
Question Juro …do you have the draw for the season entered in your stats when you get the Top 8 chances %
Yes. My model generates results for all remaining games in the season, so it does take into account who plays whom.
im guessing a win over a Powerhouse team like the Eels will sky rocket the curve?
In the model a win over Parra would help just a little more than a win over the Bulldogs. Both are worth 2 points, but also are 2 points the other team doesn’t get. The really important ones will be against the other teams around us like the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Sea Eagles.