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posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

@mike said in The J(uro) Curve:

@Geo said in The J(uro) Curve:

Everyone blames Luke Brooks …I blame the curve…have’t made the finals in it’s existence …

You’ll give @Juro a complex.

Like I don’t already have one…

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I’ve edited the graph now.

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here.

As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are 20 rounds (hopefully). In recent years we have had 25, but going further back we had 26.

alt text

Key numbers with 12 rounds to go:

  • 3% chance of minor premiership (-3% from last round)
    – Eels are 32% (+7%)
    – Panthers are 22% (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

  • 19% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
    – Eels are 75% (+9%)
    – Panthers are 67% (+10%)
    – Storm are 55% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 0.3% (-1%)

  • 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
    – Eels are 94% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 91% (+6%)
    – Storm are 86% (+7%)
    – Bulldogs are 5% (-4%)

  • 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
    – Bulldogs are 75% (+8%)
    – Broncos are 59% (+8%)
    – Eels are 0.5% (-1%)

  • 1% chance of wooden spoon (-)
    – Bulldogs are 31% (+5%)
    – Broncos are 18% (+3%)
    – Eels are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

@old_man_tiger said in The J(uro) Curve:

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

@TheDaBoss said in The J(uro) Curve:

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

You’d probably be looking at another jump of more than 10%, but this would also depend on the results of other games.

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

@facepalmer said in The J(uro) Curve:

Why did you do this we haven’t made the finals once since you started lmao

One of these days the curve will go the right way… Surely… Please?

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

@Sart0ri said in The J(uro) Curve:

Does this take the strength of the teams we play in the rest of the comp into account?

All games are a toss of the coin, 50% win/lose scenario, with a random adjustment to the for and against. It takes into account the games already played, then simulates the rest of the season. I’ve tried in the past to take account of team strengths and home ground advantage, but it didn’t really affect the end result significantly.

posted in Wests Tigers Discussion read more

Time to talk about the curve again. No, not the COVID Curve, the J Curve! And I wonder how many waves we will get this year…

So far, we have done our usual trick, win-lose-win-lose and the curve has bobbled about in the middle. With only 20 rounds this year, the value of each game is higher than normal, so the bobbling is a bit larger. And so with 4 wins and 3 losses, we are sitting at 62%, which is better than we have managed since Round 2 last year.

alt text

Key numbers after 7 rounds:

  • 6% chance of minor premiership (+2% from last round)
    – Eels are 26% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 18% (+5%)
    – Bulldogs are 0.1% (-0.2%)

  • 29% chance of finishing in top 4 (+7%)
    – Eels are 65% (+7%)
    – Panthers are 58% (+10%)
    – Bulldogs are 1% (-2%)

  • 62% chance of finishing in top 8 (+11%)
    – Eels are 90% (+5%)
    – Panthers are 85% (+8%)
    – Bulldogs are 9% (-6%)

  • 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-8%)
    – Bulldogs are 67% (+10%)
    – Broncos are 51% (+10%)
    – Eels are 2% (-2%)

  • 1% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
    – Bulldogs are 26% (+7%)
    – Broncos are 15% (+3%)
    – Eels are 0.1% (-0.1%)

posted in Season 2020 read more

Didn’t he come back to give us more depth, not with the assumption of playing every game? We still need him here until we can build more depth in our halves.

posted in Season 2020 read more

I thought it was a great effort last night, but we must remember that there were a few tries which came directly from Bulldogs errors.

  1. Grant’s try off Bulldogs failing to clean up the kick
  2. Talau’s try off Bulldogs dropped bomb
  3. Nofo’s try off intercept

If the Bulldogs had played better, those opportunities would not have been there. Other teams will not be so generous!