@coolcat said in The J(uro) Curve:
@Juro hi there and thanks for your work all year.
Just asking about broncos. They can miss out if they lose and we tie with the sharks. Does that have much of an effect?
Thanks coolcat. My model is based on simplified assumptions. While there is a remote chance of draws in real life, I haven’t modelled this. My simplified assumption is that each game has a 50/50 chance of winning and no chance of a draw. There have been 7 draws in the last decade, so the chances are about 0.4%. So if I was to include draws, the chances of a win or loss would fall to 49.8%.
Now, let’s look at the possible outcomes:
- Broncos win (49.8%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 24.8004%
- Broncos lose (49.8%): We would need to either win or draw to make it (50.2%) - total chance of 24.9996%
- Broncos draw (0.4%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 0.1992%
Therefore, including the draw would actually worsen our chance of making it. It would fall from 50% to 49.9992%.
Of course, this is based on the overall assumption that each game is independent of each other game. As I said, my model is based on simplified assumptions…