Really? How could you possibly be so sure?
Surprised the people vehemently criticising fellow forumers who believe in God haven’t jumped onto this, but I guess it’s alright to believe that aliens exist.
If it has happened once (us) in such a large and possibly infinite universe, it is likely it has happened multiple times
We are one planet, orbiting one star, which is one of about 250,000,000,000 stars in our galaxy alone. It would be totally remarkable that there is no life in any other of those solar systems.
However, there are extraordinary disances between us and all those other solar systems. Even the closest stars are about 4 light years away (40,000,000,000,000 km). If we could travel at the speed of light, it would take 4 years just to get to the nearest star. With current technology it would take many decades to reach. Assuming space travelling aliens would have better technology, it would still take unreasonable times to travel, unless they are able to travel faster than the speed of light.
Those obstruction calls against us made me so mad. Can’t remember the details exactly, but I think it was Gallen who had every chance to tackle Nofa, then waited for him to be slightly behind another player before trying. It was clear milking and the refs were only too happy to oblige.
Then Brooks had a Sharks player standing straight in front of him in the line for their first try, but for some reason they said he made the choice. What other choice did he have???
I’d love to sit down with an NRL ref and have them explain how obstruction calls are decided. I just can’t figure it out…
I believe we are better off with team we’ve played the last 2 weeks. Although we played 2 teams that have issues themselves, I believe this team has a different energy about them. And I reckon that comes from Josh Reynolds inclusion. And there’s that old saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”
And If he is broke, don’t play him!
@Juro hi there and thanks for your work all year.
Just asking about broncos. They can miss out if they lose and we tie with the sharks. Does that have much of an effect?
Thanks coolcat. My model is based on simplified assumptions. While there is a remote chance of draws in real life, I haven’t modelled this. My simplified assumption is that each game has a 50/50 chance of winning and no chance of a draw. There have been 7 draws in the last decade, so the chances are about 0.4%. So if I was to include draws, the chances of a win or loss would fall to 49.8%.
Now, let’s look at the possible outcomes:
- Broncos win (49.8%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 24.8004%
- Broncos lose (49.8%): We would need to either win or draw to make it (50.2%) - total chance of 24.9996%
- Broncos draw (0.4%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 0.1992%
Therefore, including the draw would actually worsen our chance of making it. It would fall from 50% to 49.9992%.
Of course, this is based on the overall assumption that each game is independent of each other game. As I said, my model is based on simplified assumptions…
What odds would you take for the Tigers to make the 8?
Enough to put your house on…?
Im gonna roll with my motorised scooter , for now
I’ll go one step further
We make the finals , I want 8th
Manly thanks …less Tom Turbo
it would be manly at fortress toilet wouldn’t it?
We won there last year…
Not a lot to report this week. It should be no surprise that we are 50% chance of making the top 8. If we win, we are in. If not, we are shot.
Key numbers after 24 rounds:
0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 100% (+5%)
– Roosters are 0% (-5%)
0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Storm and Roosters are 100%
– Raiders are 99.95% (+20%)
– Rabbitohs are 90% (+44%)
– Sea Eagles are 10% (-53%)
– Eels are 0% (-11%)
50% chance of finishing in top 8 (+19%)
– Sharks are 50% (-34%)
– You know the rest
0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-1%)
– Dragons join the Titans on 100.00% (+1%)
– Warriors are 87% (+27%)
– Bulldogs are 75% (+33%)
– Cowboys are 37% (-38%)
– Panthers are 1% (-2%)
0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Titans are 100% (-)
Fate is in our hands (…and the Sharks, … and the referees). I am going to be a nervous wreck until Sunday night. Can the curve turn up???