Here are 3 examples of Bayesian Conditional Probability, which are very relevant to the current COVID-19 “pandemic”.
- Let’s say 50 out of 100 people have COVID-19 and you take a COVID test that’s 99% accurate (only 1% of the test results are false). If you test “positive” for COVID-19, what’s the chance you really have COVID?
100-50= 50 people don’t have COVID but 50×1%= 0.5 will falsely test positive anyway. So the probability of a true positive is 50/(50+0.5)= 99% and you almost certainly have COVID- only 1% of “positive” test results are false.
- Now, let’s say 2 out of 100 people have COVID-19 and the COVID test is still 99% accurate. If you test “positive” for COVID-19, what’s the chance you really have COVID?
100-2= 98 people don’t have COVID but 98×1%= ~1 will falsely test positive anyway. So the probability of a true positive is 2/(2+1)= 66%- 33% of all “positive” cases are now FALSE!
- Finally, let’s say 2 out of 100 people have COVID-19 and the COVID test is only 75% accurate (25% of the test results are false). If you test “positive” for COVID-19, what’s the chance you really have COVID?
100-2= 98 people don’t have COVID but 98×25%= ~25 will falsely test positive anyway. So the probability of a true positive is now only 2/(2+25)= 7% – 93% of all “positive” cases are now FALSE!
In these examples, the incidence and test accuracy are known. But in reality, we have NO IDEA what the REAL incidence and test accuracy are- and that’s been the case for the past 18 months! In all likelihood, the vast majority of “positive COVID-19 cases” are FALSE POSITIVES! This also means the number of “COVID deaths” worldwide have been GREATLY INFLATED! (Anyone who tested “positive” with COVID-19 within 30 days of death is counted as a “COVID death” regardless of the actual cause of death!)
The primary COVID-19 test is PCR (polymerase chain reaction), which was invented by Kary Mullis, who won the 1993 Nobel Prize for it. Mullis invented PCR in order to manufacture DNA. Every “cycle” of PCR doubles (copies) a designated strand of DNA. After a cycle, newly copied DNA from the previous cycle can be copied as well, so there’s an exponential increase in copies with every cycle. After the 1st cycle, there are 21= 2 identical strands (1 copy and the original strand). After 3 cycles, there are 23= 8 strands (7 copies and the original). After 28 cycles, there are 228= 268 million copies. After 35 cycles, there are 235= 34 billion copies. After 45 cycles, there are 245= 35 trillion copies!
Mullis repeatedly said PCR couldn’t be used to diagnose a viral infection, which didn’t stop the medical industry from creating viral tests anyway. In reality, the accuracy of the PCR test is extremely low- which effectively means that PCR CAN NOT DIAGNOSE COVID-19!
In a PCR test, “forward” and “reverse” primers are added to a test sample in order to determine if the SARS-COV-2 virus is present. The two primers supposedly attach ONLY to TWO SPECIFIC segments of the virus. If the two primers find a match and attach to a DNA* strand in the test sample, then any DNA between the two primers is duplicated per PCR cycle. A PCR viral test is “positive” if enough DNA is made (to be detected) by the time the test completes. If too few cycles are run, then not enough DNA will be copied to be detected and the test will be negative even if the primers found a match. On the other hand, if the primers don’t find a match, then nothing will be copied (detected) regardless of the number of cycles.
*Note: SARS-COV-2 is supposedly a retrovirus, which means it consists of single-stranded RNA, not double-stranded DNA. PCR only works with DNA, so the RNA is first converted to DNA before running PCR.
PCR is great at manufacturing a known DNA strand. But as a viral test, it has at least 2 FALSE premises:
It’s WRONG to ASSUME the two primers are uniquely SPECIFIC to a particular virus! Virologists claim the SARS-COV-2 virus is 30,000 bases long where each base can be one of 4 “letters” (A, C, T and G). Guess what- the two primers are typically only 25+25= 50 bases long. That’s right- the SARS-COV-2 PCR test ONLY CHECKS 50/30,000= 0.17% of the virus for a match! That’s like saying “BIG” and “MISTAKE” are the same word because they both contain an “I”!
This first link below shows two typical primers for a COVID-19 PCR test, which are only 22+26=48 letters long. The 2nd link shows how the primers are used to duplicate DNA for those who are interested.
Virologists claim the world is teeming with TRILLIONS of viruses, which are EVERYWHERE (possibly even in outer space per the panspermia theory)! If that’s true, then 99.9999999% of viruses have NOT been sequenced so it’s NONSENSE to claim the two primers are unique to SARS-COV-2. (SARS-COV-2 is supposedly at least 80% similar to other coronaviruses, which for the most part only cause a minor cold.)
The two primers delineate the ends of a DNA segment (typically only 1,000 bases long) of the SARS-COV-2 virus, NOT the full 30,000 bases. So even if the two primers find a match, it’s WRONG to ASSUME the rest of the virus (30,000-50= 29,950 bases) is actually present! (The human body constantly produces varying viral-like fragments, which could FALSELY match the two primers.) When the PCR test is run at high cycles (>35), then it becomes increasingly likely that any such fragment will be amplified into a false “positive” for COVID-19.
Guess what- during 2020, PCR tests were routinely run over 35 cycles up to even 45 cycles! The WHO only recommended lowering the number of PCR cycles on 01/20/2021 (the day of Biden’s inauguration). This is the REAL reason why COVID-19 “cases” plunged in early 2021, NOT the vaccines.
Since the vaccine roll-out, the PCR manipulation continues since the CDC mandates different PCR cycles for the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated! PCR tests are now run at 28 cycles for vaccinated people and at 40 cycles for the unvaccinated, i.e. 28 reduces the number of “positive” cases (and makes the vaccine appear more “effective”) and 40 greatly increases the number of “false” positives among the unvaccinated (which is used to justify vaccination for everyone!).
COVID-19 “cases” and “deaths” are based on the INVALID PCR test, which means that ALL of the COVID statistics are INVALID!