The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 11:34 am

What is going on here? Wests Tigers have broken the J-Curve!

4 wins out of 5, all against last year's top 4. The curve keeps going up, and my computer won't accept it!

Key results after 5 rounds:
- 11% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 25%, Warriors are 23%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 43% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 64%, Warriors are 61%, Eels are 3%)
- 73% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 88%, Warriors are 86%, Eels are 13%)
- 8% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 64%, Bulldogs are 45%, Dragons are 3%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 26%, Bulldogs are 13%, Dragons are 0.2%)

At 73% chance of making the finals, this is our 3rd best start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 19 years. The only better starts were in 2000 (74%) and 2010 (73%). In 2000 we were 3-1-1 but there were only 14 teams. In 2010 we were 4-0-1 but had a better for and against at this stage.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


voice of reason
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Post by voice of reason » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 12:16 pm

If you have a way of getting the graphs to me I'm happy to host them on a server here.
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Post by colmcd » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 1:18 pm

Juro wrote:
Tue 04 Apr, 2017 8:03 am
Here we go again, folks. Another year of the curve. Taylor obviously had no idea how to drive the thing. Can Cleary get it moving in the right direction???

Image

Key results:
- 0.7% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Dragons are 14%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 62%, Dragons are 47%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 86%, Dragons are 75%)
- 50% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Dragons are 8%)
- 17% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.4%, Dragons are 0.9%)

At 23% chance of making the finals, this is our worst start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 18 years. The previous worst was 26% in 2012, where we also started with a 1-4 record, but only had a -42 F/A record and were sitting 3rd last.
I was expecting a danger drop week 10. Looking at two of those years, the drop came week 8. 2015 it came week 10.

hmm, this looks like an old graph, but I think we need to Rotate Sue and Grant in now to keep our forwards fresh.

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 1:44 pm

Does this graph appear for people? Trying twitter this time...
Image
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Geo. » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 1:48 pm

All good for me... :D
Wayne Train 2019..


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Post by Sco77y » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 1:53 pm

Looks good. There's a bit of a pattern yeah? What the hell happens at the back end of our seasons? Hopefully we can stay above the average line this year.

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 2:18 pm

Great! I'll go back and edit my posts from the last week.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by mike » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 3:07 pm

Yep I can see that one
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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 3:18 pm

Okay. Posts updated for the 2017 summary and 2018 results. Let me know if you aren't receiving the graphs still...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Tarl » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 3:28 pm

Looking good now Juro!

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old man tiger
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Post by old man tiger » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 7:09 pm

Juro with all the effort you put in every year you deserve your membership curse to be smashed this year. Top 8, 100% round 19.

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Post by Russell » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 7:31 pm

All good for me Juro - thanks for the time and effort - appreciate all your work.

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Chicken Faced Killa
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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 7:44 pm

Great work Juro! Hopefully the graph keeps going up this season and we can maintain this momentum, the next 4 weeks will show us where we really are. There was so much focus on the challenge of the first 5 weeks hopefully we don’t see a drop off in intensity.

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Post by Donald Trump » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 9:32 pm

Juro - you need to get a job
Let's make the Tigers great again!

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 09 Apr, 2018 10:11 pm

Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Mon 09 Apr, 2018 7:44 pm
Great work Juro! Hopefully the graph keeps going up this season and we can maintain this momentum, the next 4 weeks will show us where we really are. There was so much focus on the challenge of the first 5 weeks hopefully we don’t see a drop off in intensity.
Very true comment, this. We are over this massive hurdle. Please let us not fall flat on our faces now!

Thanks for all the kind words of support. I enjoy doing this, and the joy is doubled when I know others appreciate it too.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Mon 16 Apr, 2018 1:49 pm

What a sweet win that was. Eight losses in a row at Brookvale (now to be referred to as Brooks-vale), then we win 38-12, the exact same score we won by in 2003.

And the curve has reached a new high for this stage of the season. We're sitting at 81%, fractionally in front of where we were all the way back in 2000 at this stage, and miles ahead of where we were last year. Eagle eyed viewers will spot that the y-axis has had to shift to 90% so the curve will fit.

Image

Key results after 6 rounds:
- 15% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 32%, Panthers are 16%, Eels are 0.03%)
- 52% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 73%, Panthers are 55%, Eels are 1%)
- 81% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 92%, Panthers are 82%, Eels are 9%)
- 4% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 71%, Cowboys are 54%, Dragons are 1%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 33%, Cowboys are 16%, Dragons are 0.1%)

I have checked through the history of teams being 81% or better chance of making the finals after 6 rounds. The only instances where they failed to make it were:
- 2017: Dragons
- 2006: Cowboys
- 2000: Wests Tigers
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Chicken Faced Killa
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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Mon 16 Apr, 2018 2:13 pm

Great stuff Juro. Out of interest:
how many teams have been at 81% or above to make the finals after 6 rounds? I’m guessing about 55 so only 3/55 have missed out.

What’s the earliest round a team has hit 100% chance of making the finals? Round 14ish I’m guessing

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Juro
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Post by Juro » Mon 16 Apr, 2018 3:11 pm

Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Mon 16 Apr, 2018 2:13 pm
Great stuff Juro. Out of interest:
how many teams have been at 81% or above to make the finals after 6 rounds? I’m guessing about 55 so only 3/55 have missed out.
In the years I've modelled (2000-17) there were 23 teams who have been at 81% or more by round 6. Of these, there were 3 who missed out. This equates to 13%. So you could argue we are closer to 87% chance of making the finals...
Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Mon 16 Apr, 2018 2:13 pm
What’s the earliest round a team has hit 100% chance of making the finals? Round 14ish I’m guessing
Yes, nice guess. The Storm reached 100% in Round 14 in 2007. They were on 24 points (12-0-2), 10 points clear of 9th place.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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