The J(uro) Curve

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Juro
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Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by Juro » Tue 29 May, 2018 12:20 pm

Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 11:30 am
Another win this week will really help to put the curve in a great position.

How do the byes impact on the curve? Are they taken into consideration?
Byes don't have a direct impact on the results. I forecast individual games to the end of the season, where every team will have played its 24 games. During a bye week, some teams go up or down a bit, just because of the other games that are played.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by Juro » Tue 29 May, 2018 12:25 pm

Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 11:39 am
When was the last time we have been in the top 8 from round 1 to now.

If we win this weekend we will have been in the top 8 for the first half of the season. Is this a first since the joint venture?
In 2000, we stayed in the top 8 all the way up to Round 19. In Round 12, we were sitting in 3rd place, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. That put us on 14 points, equal to where we are now.

I consider now the half time for 2018, since everyone has played 12 out of 24 games. Remember, there are only 25 rounds this year, too...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Tue 29 May, 2018 1:04 pm

Juro wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 12:20 pm
Chicken Faced Killa wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 11:30 am
Another win this week will really help to put the curve in a great position.

How do the byes impact on the curve? Are they taken into consideration?
Byes don't have a direct impact on the results. I forecast individual games to the end of the season, where every team will have played its 24 games. During a bye week, some teams go up or down a bit, just because of the other games that are played.
Cheers thanks for the info.

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Post by Tweed Tiger » Tue 29 May, 2018 1:05 pm

Juro wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 12:25 pm
Tweed Tiger wrote:
Tue 29 May, 2018 11:39 am
When was the last time we have been in the top 8 from round 1 to now.

If we win this weekend we will have been in the top 8 for the first half of the season. Is this a first since the joint venture?
In 2000, we stayed in the top 8 all the way up to Round 19. In Round 12, we were sitting in 3rd place, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. That put us on 14 points, equal to where we are now.

I consider now the half time for 2018, since everyone has played 12 out of 24 games. Remember, there are only 25 rounds this year, too...
Thanks :)

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Post by Juro » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 7:46 am

Well that game hurt. Yet another close loss, and the zigzag pattern continues. While we have fallen out of the top 8, our chances of making the finals are still above 50%. We are now sitting at 59%.

Image

Key numbers after 13 rounds:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Dragons are 26%, 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Dragons are 72%, Eels are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Dragons are 95%, Eels are 0.4%)
- 7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 92%, Bulldogs are 68%, Dragons are 0.2%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 52%, Bulldogs are 16%, 3 teams are on 0.00%)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


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Post by steve-o » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 7:49 am

The similarity to 2014 is crazy. That season was derailed by the Farah/Tallis feud. Hopefully the similarity stops now.
Year of last finals appearance:
2018 - Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Panthers, Broncos, Dragons, Warriors
2017 - Eels, Sea Eagles, Cowboys
2016 - Raiders, Bulldogs, Titans
2013 - Knights
2011 - Tigers

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Post by Chicken Faced Killa » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:23 am

Having a quick scan of our remaining draw I can see the potential for the zig zagging to continue. The top end of the comp is tight this year so I imagine a lot of teams have a similar curve.

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Post by Spartan117 » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:49 am

Juro wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 7:46 am
Well that game hurt. Yet another close loss, and the zigzag pattern continues. While we have fallen out of the top 8, our chances of making the finals are still above 50%. We are now sitting at 59%.

Image

Key numbers after 13 rounds:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Dragons are 26%, 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Dragons are 72%, Eels are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Dragons are 95%, Eels are 0.4%)
- 7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 92%, Bulldogs are 68%, Dragons are 0.2%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 52%, Bulldogs are 16%, 3 teams are on 0.00%)

Man,

I love your work.

Thanks heaps

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Post by upthetigers » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:51 am

It doesn't feel like 59% but maybe the recent performances have something to do with it. It feels more like 39% our attack is pathetic.

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Post by Juro » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 9:36 am

upthetigers wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:51 am
It doesn't feel like 59% but maybe the recent performances have something to do with it. It feels more like 39% our attack is pathetic.
Our attack has been pathetic for most of the season. If our defence can keep us in the game, we are always a chance of winning. Some games it will come off, others it won't. On Sunday it didn't...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by upthetigers » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 9:38 am

Juro wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 9:36 am
upthetigers wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:51 am
It doesn't feel like 59% but maybe the recent performances have something to do with it. It feels more like 39% our attack is pathetic.
Our attack has been pathetic for most of the season. If our defence can keep us in the game, we are always a chance of winning. Some games it will come off, others it won't. On Sunday it didn't...
Very true but watching us play takes years from your life.

Btw I love your work!

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Post by Juro » Tue 05 Jun, 2018 11:31 am

upthetigers wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 9:38 am
Juro wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 9:36 am
upthetigers wrote:
Tue 05 Jun, 2018 8:51 am
It doesn't feel like 59% but maybe the recent performances have something to do with it. It feels more like 39% our attack is pathetic.
Our attack has been pathetic for most of the season. If our defence can keep us in the game, we are always a chance of winning. Some games it will come off, others it won't. On Sunday it didn't...
Very true but watching us play takes years from your life.

Btw I love your work!
Yes, despite so much changing at the club this year, there is always the heart attack at the end of every game...
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Juro » Wed 13 Jun, 2018 12:09 pm

Apologies for the delay in posting this week. With the long weekend and other commitments, it's taken a bit longer to get around to it. Also, it is not quite so much fun after a loss...

After 14 rounds, we are sitting on 7 wins and 7 losses, with a F/A of +1. Despite this, we are outside the top 8 (partially due to the effect of byes), and are now less than 50% chance of making the finals. Yes, we have hit 49%.

Image

Key numbers after 14 rounds:
- 0.5% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 28%, Panthers are 26%, Sea Eagles and Titans join 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 8% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 75%, Panthers are 74%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 49% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons and Panthers are 98%, Eels are 0.5%)
- 8% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 84%, Bulldogs are 70%, Panthers are 0.03%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 37%, Bulldogs are 21%, Roosters, Sharks and Warriors join 3 teams on 0.00%)
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

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Post by Fade To Black » Wed 13 Jun, 2018 7:27 pm

Thanks again for your efforts Juro. Like you say the byes for a few teams so far this season has impacted the ladder, the Broncos are only keeping us out of the 8 at this point due to them having had a bye already- pretty sure our F/A is better than theirs.

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Post by mike » Fri 15 Jun, 2018 1:50 pm

Fade To Black wrote:
Wed 13 Jun, 2018 7:27 pm
Thanks again for your efforts Juro. Like you say the byes for a few teams so far this season has impacted the ladder, the Broncos are only keeping us out of the 8 at this point due to them having had a bye already- pretty sure our F/A is better than theirs.
Us losing is what is keeping us out of the 8.
Western Suburbs supporter since 1960 | Balmain junior since 1967 | Wests Tigers supporter since 1999

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Post by old man tiger » Fri 15 Jun, 2018 2:48 pm

The bye can't be interpreted like that. If the Broncos win in rd 17 then the bye is irrelevant as they remain 2 points above us (ignoring the results of the next 2 weeks of course)

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Post by Tarl » Fri 15 Jun, 2018 2:48 pm

Fade To Black wrote:
Wed 13 Jun, 2018 7:27 pm
Thanks again for your efforts Juro. Like you say the byes for a few teams so far this season has impacted the ladder, the Broncos are only keeping us out of the 8 at this point due to them having had a bye already- pretty sure our F/A is better than theirs.
Except that no competition points are given for byes this year, so Broncos are legitimately one win ahead of us.

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Post by jadtiger » Fri 15 Jun, 2018 2:58 pm

Tarl wrote:
Fri 15 Jun, 2018 2:48 pm
Fade To Black wrote:
Wed 13 Jun, 2018 7:27 pm
Thanks again for your efforts Juro. Like you say the byes for a few teams so far this season has impacted the ladder, the Broncos are only keeping us out of the 8 at this point due to them having had a bye already- pretty sure our F/A is better than theirs.
Except that no competition points are given for byes this year, so Broncos are legitimately one win ahead of us.
Wrong both teams have 7 wins the only thing that puts the drongos ahead of us is the bye.Our f/a is superior to theirs.

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