The J(uro) Curve

Wests Tigers Discussion
User avatar
TigerTiger
Member
Member
Posts: 569
Joined: Tue 13 Jun, 2017 4:56 pm

Re: The J(uro) Curve

Post by TigerTiger » Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:56 am

happy tiger wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:53 am
I'm just surprised that the curve hasn't left us to be involved in Finals footy
lol, or ended up playing for the Roosters
A one eyed supporter, mostly :crazy, always :sign:


Russell
Member
Member
Posts: 5058
Joined: Sat 10 Dec, 2011 6:46 pm

Post by Russell » Wed 05 Sep, 2018 10:05 am

TigerTiger wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:56 am
happy tiger wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:53 am
I'm just surprised that the curve hasn't left us to be involved in Finals footy
lol, or ended up playing for the Roosters
They've made an offer.

User avatar
mike
Forum Suppoter
Forum Suppoter
Posts: 1678
Joined: Mon 28 Jun, 2010 8:32 pm
Location: Hornsby

Post by mike » Wed 05 Sep, 2018 5:32 pm

Russell wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 10:05 am
TigerTiger wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:56 am
happy tiger wrote:
Wed 05 Sep, 2018 8:53 am
I'm just surprised that the curve hasn't left us to be involved in Finals footy
lol, or ended up playing for the Roosters
They've made an offer.
Not surprised. They probably have a $15M cap.
Western Suburbs supporter since 1960 | Balmain junior since 1967 | Wests Tigers supporter since 1999

User avatar
Juro
Member
Member
Posts: 2680
Joined: Mon 13 Jul, 2009 9:15 am

Post by Juro » Tue 11 Sep, 2018 8:59 am

BOTTOM 4
The bottom 4 was pretty clearly set from early on in 2018. Lets look first at the teams that avoided the bottom 4, and the Bulldogs were the only team to look in real danger before escaping towards the end of the year.
Image

Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1. Bulldogs: 90% (Round 19)
2. Raiders: 52% (Round 4)
3. Knights: 42% (Round 16)
4. Sharks: 37% (Round 2)
5. Rabbitohs: 37% (Round 2)
6. Broncos: 32% (Round 1)
7. Roosters: 31% (Round 1)
8. Dragons, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, Wests Tigers: 25% (Season start)

Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1. Dragons, Rabbitohs: Round 15
3. Panthers: Round 16
4. Roosters, Sharks, Storm, Warriors: Round 18
8. Broncos: Round 19
9. Wests Tigers: Round 22
10. Raiders: Round 24
11. Bulldogs, Knights: Round 25
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

User avatar
Juro
Member
Member
Posts: 2680
Joined: Mon 13 Jul, 2009 9:15 am

Post by Juro » Wed 12 Sep, 2018 8:18 am

Now looking at the teams that finally made the bottom 4, it is little surprise that there was little surprise. All of the bottom 4 were likely all the way through the season.
Image

Of the bottom 4, they were at their least likely as follows:
1. Eels: 25% (Season start)
2. Sea Eagles: 20% (Round 4)
3. Cowboys: 19% (Round 1)
4. Titans: 18% (Round 5)

The only interesting thing was that it took so long to lock in the exact teams. The Eels only reached 100% in Round 24, and the other 3 reached it in Round 25.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...


User avatar
mike
Forum Suppoter
Forum Suppoter
Posts: 1678
Joined: Mon 28 Jun, 2010 8:32 pm
Location: Hornsby

Post by mike » Wed 12 Sep, 2018 8:32 am

Juro wrote:
Wed 12 Sep, 2018 8:18 am
Now looking at the teams that finally made the bottom 4, it is little surprise that there was little surprise. All of the bottom 4 were likely all the way through the season.
Image

Of the bottom 4, they were at their least likely as follows:
1. Eels: 25% (Season start)
2. Sea Eagles: 20% (Round 4)
3. Cowboys: 19% (Round 1)
4. Titans: 18% (Round 5)

The only interesting thing was that it took so long to lock in the exact teams. The Eels only reached 100% in Round 24, and the other 3 reached it in Round 25.
Thats because the Bulldogs and Necastle hovered around the bottom four. It could have been any of those 6 in the bottom four. It wasn’t until round 25 that the Bulldogs and Newcastle pulled themselves above the last four, sealing their fate.
Last edited by mike on Wed 12 Sep, 2018 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Western Suburbs supporter since 1960 | Balmain junior since 1967 | Wests Tigers supporter since 1999

User avatar
Juro
Member
Member
Posts: 2680
Joined: Mon 13 Jul, 2009 9:15 am

Post by Juro » Wed 12 Sep, 2018 1:06 pm

mike wrote:
Wed 12 Sep, 2018 8:32 am
Juro wrote:
Wed 12 Sep, 2018 8:18 am
Now looking at the teams that finally made the bottom 4, it is little surprise that there was little surprise. All of the bottom 4 were likely all the way through the season.
Image

Of the bottom 4, they were at their least likely as follows:
1. Eels: 25% (Season start)
2. Sea Eagles: 20% (Round 4)
3. Cowboys: 19% (Round 1)
4. Titans: 18% (Round 5)

The only interesting thing was that it took so long to lock in the exact teams. The Eels only reached 100% in Round 24, and the other 3 reached it in Round 25.
Thats because the Bulldogs and Necastke hovered around the bottom four. It could have been any of those 6 in the bottom four. It wasn’t until round 25 that the Bulldogs and Newcastle pulled themselves above the last four, sealing their fate.
Those bottom 6 teams were all jostling, trying to escape the spoon.
- Eels won 3 of their last 7 games
- Sea Eagles won 2 of their last 5 games
- Cowboys won 4 of their last 6 games
- Titans won 2 of their last 6 games
- Bulldogs won 4 of their last 6 games

From week to week, the teams shifted positions on the ladder, with no team falling too far behind or getting too far ahead.
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

User avatar
Juro
Member
Member
Posts: 2680
Joined: Mon 13 Jul, 2009 9:15 am

Post by Juro » Wed 19 Sep, 2018 2:21 pm

TOP 8
The top 8 was also clearly set from early on in 2018. The last round any team that made the top 8 fell below 50% was in Round 10. There were no last minute charges for the fairytale finish this year.

Lets look first at the teams that made the top 8, so I can ignore our massive slide for just a little bit longer.

Image

Below is a list of the least likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1. Dragons, Panthers, Warriors: 50% (Season start)
4. Storm: 44% (Round 5)
5. Roosters: 43% (Round 1)
6. Broncos: 38% (Round 7)
7. Rabbitohs: 35% (Round 2)
8. Sharks: 33% (Round 6)

Below is a list of when each team reached 100%:
1. Storm: Round 20
2. Rabbitohs, Roosters: Round 21
4. Dragons, Panthers, Sharks: Round 23
7. Broncos, Warriors: Round 24
I've been a member since 2012. We last played finals football in 2011. Just saying...

Post Reply