Buttface
Well-known member
They only need 2 days for a test match.
Cricket Season Thread
- Thread starter citizen_cub
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Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
I know God knows how thw poms will handle and survive starc on a wet pitch after a few days of rain has me a bit nervous
Greg Chappell slamming the batsmen as SOFT at MCG:
"It was the batters’ reactions: gestures of disbelief, muttered oaths, wry smiles as they trudged off, as if they alone had been cursed by a rogue delivery in the sport’s long history. They behaved like novices encountering adversity for the first time, oblivious to the blood, sweat, and sheer willpower that have sustained Test cricket through far worse trials. via SMH"
"It was the batters’ reactions: gestures of disbelief, muttered oaths, wry smiles as they trudged off, as if they alone had been cursed by a rogue delivery in the sport’s long history. They behaved like novices encountering adversity for the first time, oblivious to the blood, sweat, and sheer willpower that have sustained Test cricket through far worse trials. via SMH"
Tucker
Well-known member
Good on him, that’s what I saw as well.
Head laughing after he was just clean bowled, pretty much acting like it was the ball of the century pissed me off a bit.
This is Test cricket. When things aren’t going your way you are meant to dig in and either wait for opportunities or you find ways to create them.
Our batsmen, more often than not just give in when shit gets hard.
We definately need blokes who value their wicket as much as Bill Lawry did.
Buttface
Well-known member
I hope Starcy finishes of the season with 10 wkt match. He’s been great.
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Buttface
Well-known member
Crap betting options for the cricket on the TAB app.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
in a past life i used to do pricing for some of the agencies, the tab generally are not the most generous. Did think $6 draw if the rain comes first 2 days might be good value.
Before the mcg the draw for scg was $7.50, $7.50 to $6 has been a big weight of money to shift it in 1.5 points
Buttface
Well-known member
Pricing for betting agencies? Not your everyday job.
Tucker
Well-known member
I hope this will be our last New Years Test in Sydney.
The weather sux and it usually finishes a tour on a boring note.
It needs to move to before Christmas.
The weather sux and it usually finishes a tour on a boring note.
It needs to move to before Christmas.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
yeah it was a pretty fun job accept the hours were bad when you were on the overseas sports or the dogs in Ireland or something the pools were small.
offf topic but generally horse racing markets for a staturday are framed at around 125% so that basically means the bookies aim for a 25% profit on the book for that race. Closer you get to race time the market tightens to around 115%
The bookie's percentages are calculated by dividing each horse’s decimal odds into 100, and then adding them all together to calculate the total percentage
e.g. if a horse is 2.50 then 100 ÷ 2.50 = 40% of the market you would then add up all the percentages of the horses in the field and that would be the market.
General rule of thumb is 1% per runner so if it is a 12 horse field then the market should aim to hit 112% etc a 10 horse field 110%
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Buttface
Well-known member
@Halbrowne61 you taking this in? You probably already know, I’m sure I’ve been told this before but there’s nothing like refresher training.
Thanks Jedi, I love numbers. I walk The Fonz with a bloke and his Husky, he has a degree in math. I like our chats and his Husky. I think that’s why I like cricket, it’s a game of individual numbers that go into a team of numbers that works together.
Well hopefully works together.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
in the case of the current cricket odds
opened
australia $1.55
64%
England $3.40
29%
draw $7.50
13%
total % = 106%
currently
australia $1.70
58%
England $3.10
32%
Draw $6
16%
total % = 106%
Interesting markets are still at 106%
that would mean it has been a hell of a plunge on the draw
compare that to an nrl game
example
souths $1.60
62%
tigers $2.80
35%
total % 97%
that market would be under value by 3% points
so you would frame your own market and generally not have a bet until the odds were more like 100% that way you can work out if the odds will firm or not.
souths $1.55
64%
tigers 2.80
35%
total % 99%
from that perspective tigers at $2.80 would be value
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Champion @Jedi_Tiger - I really enjoy how you explain this.
Can you maybe do this for the Wests Tigers games in season 2026 too?
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
if HBG had not potentially derailed our season the 4.25 for tigers to make the semis is a good price reflective of the book.
Halbrowne61
Well-known member
Yes, this has been my part of my ABC over many years but interesting to see it laid out again. Fascinating stuff but easier said than done !
My youngest son does this now for one of the major betting agencies, but a lot of it is now computerised logarithms rather than personal opinion.
Sounds like Don Scott
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
loved Don Scott, Don Scott uses weight and measures, 1.5kg equal 1 length that is still some of the methods used for horse racing with the betting firms. That is used for working out margins etc in races not setting prices.
Rock Hopper Steve
Well-known member
When he was at his peak with his legal eagle buddy's boy did they strike fear in the betting ring, their weights method had excellent strike rates landing big bets that hammered the bookies.
When bookmakers seen them approaching for bets with wads of cash you can just imagine the feeling they were experiencing in the guts.
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