Let's not get ahead of ourselves but here are some stats for you nerds

upthetigers

upthetigers

Well-known member
Recent NRL history supports that the leader or joint leader at the end of Round 6 has an extremely high likelihood of playing finals football, often exceeding 90%.

According to analytics and historical trends, leading the NRL ladder at the conclusion of Round 6 typically results in the following probabilities:
  • 95% chance of playing finals.
  • 60% chance of finishing in the top four.
  • 25% chance of being minor premier.
Key Historical Context:
  • Top Four Success: Recent seasons show that teams in the top four at the six-round mark frequently maintain that position. For instance, in 2024, the top four after round six heavily influenced the final top-four spots.
  • Grand Final Impact: In the modern NRL era, teams that finish in the top four are the most likely to win the Premiership, with a high percentage of finalists coming from the top four at this stage.
  • Exceptions: While 95% is high, it is not 100%. Teams have occasionally fallen out of the top eight from a strong start, though it is rare.
Based on 2026 data, teams like the Wests Tigers and others leading after Round 6 are historically poised for a strong season.
 
Here's hoping those stats ring true for the Club.

The boys look hungry enough to be there, it's just a matter of how they go in the huge stage of finals football "if" & it looking more and more like "when" they make the finals.
 
Tigerdazz2 said:
Here's hoping those stats ring true for the Club.

The boys look hungry enough to be there, it's just a matter of how they go in the huge stage of finals football "if" & it looking more and more like "when" they make the finals.
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With no one likely being picked for Origin except for maybe Luai on the bench, you'd think we'd perform well during the Origin period.
 
The NRL Team Stats make good reading on the attack side but still needs a bit of work on the errors and negative plays. Have to use the average rather than overall numbers due to bye.

www.nrl.com

Stats

The official NRL stats of the National Rugby League, NRL and NRLW player statistics, as well as NRL and NRLW competition statistics.
www.nrl.com www.nrl.com
 
happy_tiger said:
Bring back the Juro Curve please
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I was searching for it on the forum today funnily enough I think the thread has been deleted

Actually no I found it:

Juro

Thread 'The J(uro) Curve'

Now that we have a few games under our belt for the season, I think it's time for me to start looking at where we are, similar to what I did last year (but with a snazzier title).

5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, -49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?

Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8\. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.

Here is the graph of our progress to...
 
I wouldn't bank on wonky stats...

What I would bank on is this:

1. our forward pack. While I don't see people who are outstanding, I see some very good to great players in Terrell May, KPP and Samuela Fainu. The other forwards have also improved. ... I have been thinking it's one of our better packs to rival the times of Payten/Fulton/Ellis.

2. Our backline has started defending. Turuva's impact cannot be understated. We see so much better defense from his work on the backline. People talk of the Spine, yet they rarely talk of the backrow. I really think Centers are critical and you see how premiership teams have key centers that make a huge difference. Penrith with Crichton, May.. Roosters with Manu/Latrell, Brisbane with Hodges, etc.

3. somehow our spine is clicking. Madden shouldn't be as good as he is, he really is performing similar to Toby Sexton... AD has finally gone up a level and kept at it.


Number 3 should not be working. We have tried AD in our spine and it's been a real Rocks N Diamons experience usually ending in injury. The combination of a hard working forward pack AND a backline that can both score and stop tries is what makes 3 easier.
 
We are ahead of the curve with having a playing style that suits both the new 6 again rules and also suits the players we have. We need to capitalise on that as much as we can now because teams like the Storm and Canberra will find some form and get stronger as the season goes on. (Much like Panthers and Roosters did last season).

Also we need to avoid our customary month or more without winning a match that we always go through every season. So for me its not how many games 'we win' but how quickly we can respond to a defeat and not lose form and momentum.

We could be unlucky for 2 games and then have a terrible game and suddenly we are searching for form again against elite sides and the WT curse doom spiral starts getting its tendrils around the players heads. I think that's why Benji was pretty cranky at the way we finished yesterdays game.
 
And of course, the elephant, in the room injuries. If we can keep our best players on the field, except for the occasional, single loss, now and again, then we are a good chance. Multiple injuries and, like Parra, we will begin to struggle, despite our improved depth.
 
Have been looking at NRL app stats

We come up minimally in the individual stats and are probably top 2 or 3 for best all round in team stats, especially when you factor in the bye and we have had one less game.

Good example is PCM, maybe 1 or 2 guys in the top 50, but 5th or 6th highest as a team. Also 1st in offloads. Highest percentage in possession. Basically in the rught half for every stat, top 8 for good stuff bottom 5 for negative styff. So much to like!
 
old_man_tiger said:
Have been looking at NRL app stats

We come up minimally in the individual stats and are probably top 2 or 3 for best all round in team stats, especially when you factor in the bye and we have had one less game.

Good example is PCM, maybe 1 or 2 guys in the top 50, but 5th or 6th highest as a team. Also 1st in offloads. Highest percentage in possession. Basically in the rught half for every stat, top 8 for good stuff bottom 5 for negative styff. So much to like!
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There is a blog called the rugby league eye test that highlights alot of niche stats one of which he updated recentely was expected run meters (how many meters gained compared to what shoud be expected at that field postion)on which none of our players excwpt royce hunt were particulary outstanding but our team as a whole were one of the best in the comp

It seems that while no one in our team is having a dally m season everyone is doing their job at a above average level
 
Dino said:
There is a blog called the rugby league eye test that highlights alot of niche stats one of which he updated recentely was expected run meters (how many meters gained compared to what shoud be expected at that field postion)on which none of our players excwpt royce hunt were particulary outstanding but our team as a whole were one of the best in the comp

It seems that while no one in our team is having a dally m season everyone is doing their job at a above average level
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Mentioning the Rugby League Eye Test, this one pleased me:

"The last number for this week is that the Wests Tigers are one of just two teams not to have had a try originate from their opponents own half this season. Penrith (of course) is the other, while Canterbury are the only one to not have scored one from their own half. The Tigers also allow the shortest try distance this season at just 11.3 metres."

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

The return of expected run metres and the Cowboys, plus Storm, Wahs and Tigers - The Rugby League Eye Test

Not only are expected points back on the menu for 2026, but I’ve also been able to bring my Expected Run Metres model back from the grave as well. How does it work? The full explainer is here and things haven’t changed. Here’s the quick version. We look at the starting point of a run, then also...
www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com
 
stevied said:
And of course, the elephant, in the room injuries. If we can keep our best players on the field, except for the occasional, single loss, now and again, then we are a good chance. Multiple injuries and, like Parra, we will begin to struggle, despite our improved depth.
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Especially the forwards
 
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