5 Game Forecast

[Chunk]

If we look at the next five games, we have Eels, Knights, Broncos, Raiders and Sharks.

One game and a time and all that, but to me they are all winnable.

May and Luai come back against the Raiders. Toa could be back any time in next few weeks.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Ethan Roberts will take the position of Seyfarth and be a good contributor too.

Yeah it's good fun looking forward but I'm not not counting any chickens yet at all, it looks like we have improved but what about the last 14 years.

 

[Tom Shines]

Smart money is on tigers this week. It's not even close.

What worries you about Parra? Moses ain't doing anything if their forwards won't lay a platform.

We will dominate field position and have plenty of points in us.

The only reason Eels are favourites is because the Tigers of old don't win back-to-back. This is a different team.

I’m not sure you are privy to those details about who is actually bettiing on the game ? 🤔

I’m also not saying they can’t win … just saying they aren’t the favourite …so making a statement like “it will mean nothing if they don’t beat Parra” is not entirely reasonable in my view …

 

[upthetigers]

I’m not sure you are privy to those details about who is actually bettiing on the game ? 🤔

The odds fluctuate with the flow of punter's money. Why do you think the dogs are short odds to win the premiership? Because all the Lebos are betting on them, when in reality they will be lucky to make the 8.

 

[Tom Shines]

The odds fluctuate with the flow of punter's money. Why do you think the dogs are short odds to win the premiership? Because all the Lebos are betting on them, when in reality they will be lucky to make the 8.

This doesn’t explain that you know that the “smart money” is on the Tigers ,…you don’t know who is betting on what team

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Keen to see KPP up against his old club.

great buy for us
our forwards are beasts

 

[upthetigers]

This doesn’t explain that you know that the “smart money” is on the Tigers ,…you don’t know who is betting on what team

You look at the odds offered ($2.20) then figure out the realistic chances the tigers will win the game.

To break even on your bet, you would need to win 45% of the time. When realistically we will win 65+% of the time.

Thats how you figure out the value and what the "smart money" is.

 

[Tom Shines]

You look at the odds offered ($2.20) then figure out the realistic chances the tigers will win the game.

To break even on your bet, you would need to win 45% of the time. When realistically we will win 65+% of the time.

Thats how you figure out the value and what the "smart money" is.

😂…

don’t put the mortgage payment on them with this logic … the 65%+ might just be a gut feel rather than a result of any research

 

[upthetigers]

😂…

don’t put the mortgage payment on them with this logic … the 65%+ might just be a gut feel rather than a result of any research

it's basic math mate, the numbers don't lie

 

[Tom Shines]

it's basic math mate, the numbers don't lie

Your gut might though 😉

 

[upthetigers]

Your gut might though 😉

don't start stalking my posts if you put your mortgage on it and we lose. bet what you can afford.

 

[Tom Shines]

don't start stalking my posts if you put your mortgage on it and we lose. bet what you can afford.

I never bet more than $10-15 a game… I’ll bet the WT this week with the start 👍… I hate playing against that muppet Moses … he saves his best for the Tigers and he is a good player stil…

 

[upthetigers]

Your gut might though 😉

I go with my gut in poker. Folded pocket Queens preflop in a cash game the other week, he had Aces. I'm no mug mate I have a feel for the game. Most people would tell you, you're bunkers for folding Queens preflop.

 

[Tom Shines]

I go with my gut in poker. Folded pocket Queens preflop in a cash game the other week, he had Aces. I'm no mug mate I have a feel for the game. Most people would tell you, you're bunkers for folding Queens preflop.

Why not see the flop?

 

[upthetigers]

Why not see the flop?

I raised $25 preflop, he three-bet to $70. I knew my Queens were no good, so folded.

 

[Tom Shines]

I raised $25 preflop, he three-bet to $70. I knew my Queens were no good, so folded.

You would have hated to see another queen or two come up …

 

[upthetigers]

You would have hated to see another queen or two come up …

Yeah but like I said the math doesn't lie. I am not getting the odds to call and hope to see a Queen.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

This doesn’t explain that you know that the “smart money” is on the Tigers ,…you don’t know who is betting on what team

you look at opening markets and follow the betting trend
you can price your own market to work out your value point
bookies always aim for 113% of the amrket ideally
in a 2 horse race like rugby league (unlike soccer where they have agenuine draw as an option) you can follow the smart money.
gamble responsibly
Tigers $2.20 against busted parramatta is insane value
I have priced the Tigers at a market of say 109% and would have $1.90 Tigers $2.15 parramatta
I had a decent crack last week against warriors at $4.10
I will be having a big go at $2.20

I will also take
Tigers 2.20
nsw blues win series $1.62
price $3.55

 

[Tom Shines]

Yeah but like I said the math doesn't lie. I am not getting the odds to call and hope to see a Queen.

You dont know the maths 😂..: you don’t know what the other guy has … you made a call that turned out to be correct .. tne guy could have had two and a seven and bluffed you

 

[upthetigers]

You dont know the maths 😂..: you don’t know what the other guy has … you made a call that turned out to be correct .. tne guy could have had two and a seven and bluffed you

I've played millions of hands, I know what the guy had, he flipped over the Aces. He was pissed I showed him the Queens.

 

[Tom Shines]

you look at opening markets and follow the betting trend
you can price your own market to work out your value point
bookies always aim for 113% of the amrket ideally
in a 2 horse race like rugby league (unlike soccer where they have agenuine draw as an option) you can follow the smart money.
Tigers $2.20 against busted parramatta is insane value
I have priced the Tigers at a market of say 109% and would have $1.90 Tigers $2.15 parramatta
I had a decent crack last week against warriors at $4.10
I will be having a big go at $2.20

I will also take
Tigers 2.20
nsw blues win series $1.62
price $3.55

Ok … we’ll follow the trend … teams haven’t even been named yet and the game is still a week away …. So a long way to go …

Good luck though ..: it would be a good result