jirskyr
Well-known member
Since the Titans game our currency has definitely been on the rise (3W 3L). The 3 subsequent losses were respectable, to respectable opponents, even if we could have done much better against all of Raiders, Panthers and Souths, they weren't blow-outs and not entirely terrible, i.e. a platform you could develop off.
The wins were against lower opposition but the important point is they were comprehensive wins - average winning margin of 31 points. This has done wonders for our F/A (+68) and has us top of the 4 sides who are 5-5 - a key distinction when you are battling for the bottom of the Top 8 and historically F/A being a weakness of Tigers.
As per previous discussions, I don't subscribe to the idea that "Tigers typically lose matches we are expected to win", not just because of the lack of logic (if we normally lose to the teams we should beat, and we normally win slightly less than 50% of matches in a season, then are we beating most of the teams we "aren't supposed to beat"?) but because I proved via data that we have a significant win rate when favourites.
Which I think makes this upcoming month the real make-or-break of the season.
Parra away
Warriors home
Knights away
Dogs home
Roosters home
That's half the remaining matches (rest are Panthers away, Sea Birds away, Rabbits at home, Storm away, Parra at home).
We need to stay in front of 50% wins and this has to be achieved by defeating both Warriors and Dogs, which we should, then take at least one of Knights, Parra or Roosters. On paper it's a difficult ask, but if we are genuine about playing finals footy, we should expect to win 1 of those 3, most likely Knights who are very beatable. To beat Parra and/or Roosters would put us with very real credentials about being a Top-8 side.
The final run is difficult with 3 of the top 4 sides, even though Storm away is probably not actually in Melbourne. So if we fail in the next 5 rounds then we can consider our season probably done.
The wins were against lower opposition but the important point is they were comprehensive wins - average winning margin of 31 points. This has done wonders for our F/A (+68) and has us top of the 4 sides who are 5-5 - a key distinction when you are battling for the bottom of the Top 8 and historically F/A being a weakness of Tigers.
As per previous discussions, I don't subscribe to the idea that "Tigers typically lose matches we are expected to win", not just because of the lack of logic (if we normally lose to the teams we should beat, and we normally win slightly less than 50% of matches in a season, then are we beating most of the teams we "aren't supposed to beat"?) but because I proved via data that we have a significant win rate when favourites.
Which I think makes this upcoming month the real make-or-break of the season.
Parra away
Warriors home
Knights away
Dogs home
Roosters home
That's half the remaining matches (rest are Panthers away, Sea Birds away, Rabbits at home, Storm away, Parra at home).
We need to stay in front of 50% wins and this has to be achieved by defeating both Warriors and Dogs, which we should, then take at least one of Knights, Parra or Roosters. On paper it's a difficult ask, but if we are genuine about playing finals footy, we should expect to win 1 of those 3, most likely Knights who are very beatable. To beat Parra and/or Roosters would put us with very real credentials about being a Top-8 side.
The final run is difficult with 3 of the top 4 sides, even though Storm away is probably not actually in Melbourne. So if we fail in the next 5 rounds then we can consider our season probably done.
