An in-depth look at the Panthers and how we can take a leaf out of their book

[GNR4LIFE]

In 2011, The Panthers were struggling. They got off to a terrible start winning just 2 of their first 8 games. As a result Matthew Elliott was sacked and the club set their sights on Tim Sheens. We all know what happened there. Sheens held our club over a barrel and re-signed with us for another 3 yrs. As a result of Sheens staying with us, the Panthers were left up the proverbial creek without a paddle. I remember reading in the paper at the time that a board member sent a text message to Phil Gould saying (paraphrasing) ''I don't know what we're suppose to do now, he's the only guy we wanted''. Looking back, that probably was the best thing to happen to the club, not just because they wouldn't have to endure yrs of backrowers covering every position known to man, wingers on benches and Sheens picking his favourites, somehow they convinced Gus to come on board as general manager and imo, the best signing they've ever made.

Now lets look at the Panthers playing squad in 2011

Luke Lewis
Trent Waterhouse
Michael Gordon
Matthew Bell
Nathan Smith
Michael Jennings
Tim Grant
Petero Civoniceva
Brad Tighe
Joseph Paulo
Sam McKendry
Masada Iosefa
Lachclan Coote
Luke Walsh
Adrian Purtell
Travis Burns
Kevin Kingston
Sandor Earl
Michael Simmons
Arana Taumata
Nafe Seluini
Yileen Gordon
Michael Worrincy
Timana Tahu
Sarafu Fatiaki
Nigel Plum
Brendon Gibb
Tim Winitana
Dayne Weston

There's a bit of talent there, but there were a lot of nuffies. And the marquee guys, Gordon, Jennings in particular were underperforming and stale. Really not that much better of a roster than our current roster if you were to be honest. So Gus comes in, hires Cleary and he makes a few signings for 2012\. They are

Cameron Ciraldo, Chris Armit, Danny Galea , Clint Newton, Geoff Daniela , Junior Tia-Kilifi, Etu Uaisele, Ryan Simpkins

Meanwhile losing

Timana Tahu , Shane Elford, Trent Waterhouse Junior Paulo, Matthew Bell , Petero Civoniceva, Adrian Purtell, Arana Taumata, Masada Iosefa, Tim Winitana, Michael Worrincy, Daine Laurie

Half of the players that left were released, and if you look at those players a lot are just as average as what we have now. Sure there's Petero and Waterhouse, but Petero's time at the Panthers had run its course and Waterhouse wasn't the same player he was earlier in his career. Already Gus is laying the foundations, letting go deadwood and players that have run their race at the club, and adding experienced journeymen like Clint Newton, Danny Galea and Chris Armit. Sure these guys aren't world beaters, but their experienced fresh faces there to give the club the push it needs.

Lets move on to 2013

The clubs recruits have managed to get of higher quality

Sam Anderson, Lewis Brown, Tom Humble, Isaac John, Jeremy Lattimore, Sika Manu, Mose Masoe, Wes Naiqama, James Robers, Dean Whare

Meanwhile releasing more deadwood and players who need a change of scenery

Travis Burns, Michael Gordon, Michael Jennings, Luke Lewis, Nafe Seluni

In 2013 they won 11 games just finishing 2 points out of the 8\. Things were starting to move along now, especially after they went into the market and had their best recruitment drive yet signing

Jamie Soward, Peter Wallace, Elijah Taylor, Brent Kite, Jamal Idris and Kevin Naiqama

That yr despite a decimated injury toll they made it all the way to a pre lim final

2015 was a bust of a yr. They could not overcome a horrendous injury toll. They were relatively quiet with the sole acquisition of Apisai Koroisau.

But 2016 is where they were able to enjoy the fruits of their labour when they were able to attract Trent Merrin and Peta Hiku. And they now appear favourites for James Tamou.

So the pattern here is that once Gus came in, he changed everything. Recruiting every yr gradually became better and better. He realized that to be successful that you need to recruit well. He didn't solely rely on juniors, even with the biggest junior base in the country. He knew it was important to have a mix. Guys like Moylan and Cartwright have benefited greatly as they haven't had to come in, like the majority of our kids and have to do it all on their own, they came in when they were ready and playing alongside men and look at them go.

This is how we need our team run. Yes, it's a 5 yr plan, and a re-building phase, but it will be a much more competitive phase than what we're going through atm. We need seasoned first graders who can be stop gaps, who will still improve us and move us up the ladder, with a view into 3 or 5 yrs, to bringing in guys like your Merrin's and Tamou's who can really ice the cake.

People say we need this person, and we need that person. Over the last 5 yrs its been proven that the man you need is Gus. Yes he's a jerk and a windbag, but he's the smartest operator in the game. It would be a dream to score him. I know we won't though, but the least we can do is try and copy the model the Panthers have used since he arrived.

 

[Geo]

You lost me at Brad Tighe…

 

[tiga4eva]

Great post. Yesterday my son and I were invited to sit with Justin Pascoe and attend the game in the Chairmans Lounge. Justin seems to be the perfect leader for us, he oversaw some massive changes at Penrith and wants to instill them here. He didn't divulge any secrets but told us that the Centre of Excellence is of utmost importance. He also said that we are always paying overs for players due to the crappy facilities we have. Also said that the systems that are being put in place are about sustained success,there's no quick fix.
On another note, I sat next to Harry T at lunch, I don't know why that made me nervous
So, I'm tipping some more short term pain but am super confident that Pascoe has us heading in the right direction.

 

[Bones]

Great post. Yesterday my son and I were invited to sit with Justin Pascoe and attend the game in the Chairmans Lounge. Justin seems to be the perfect leader for us, he oversaw some massive changes at Penrith and wants to instill them here. **He didn't divulge any secrets but told us that the Centre of Excellence is of utmost importance. He also said that we are always paying overs for players due to the crappy facilities we have.** Also said that the systems that are being put in place are about sustained success,there's no quick fix.
On another note, I sat next to Harry T at lunch, I don't know why that made me nervous
So, I'm tipping some more short term pain but am super confident that Pascoe has us heading in the right direction.

I said the same thing in a thread a month or so ago.

Imagine you go for two jobs. Both pay the same but one has new offices and state of the art equipment and the other is in a building that looks like it may fall on you at any moment. It's a no brainer.

 

[jirskyr]

I appreciate the time taken for the analysis, but for me Penrith are anything but poster-child for short- and long-term success.

From 2005-2015 they won 44.32% of games (worse than Tigers) and made the finals 2/11 seasons (18.18%, worse than Tigers). If you take it back further than 2000, their finals strike rate improves to 5/16 (31.25%) and they have the 2003 premiership and minor premiership, but they also got the 2001 wooden spoon.

By the general "forum fan" measurement of success, < 50% finals appearances is not acceptable. Since 2000 Penrith have used 5 coaches, same as WT, and they cut their last coach (whom they head-hunted and is still well-respected) more recently than we did.

This is not even taking into account the better financial position of their football club, better facilities and larger leagues club backing (Penrith Panthers have 50% more members than Wests Ashfield and Campbo combined, plus 23% more revenue).

Penrith also sit on one of the biggest, if not the biggest, junior rugby league nurseries in the world.

So tell me about how Broncos turned things around post Henjak/Griffin and how they lean on their huge membership and advertising revenues. Tell me about how Souths went on an amazing membership drive and the success of their private ownership, which eventually delivered a premiership. Tell me about the movings and shakings of the Roosters heavies who got the club to 3 consecutive minor premierships after missing the finals 3/4 of the previous years (including a wooden spoon). Tell me about how Bulldogs have managed 2 GF appearances in the last 4 years, or how Manly got to 4 out of the last 9 (including 2 premierships).

But don't ask me to look over Penrith with admiration, because they are just 2 wins better than us this year and have a history of non-performance equally as poor as our own. We would be copying the wrong people.

 

[Harvey]

A lot of that change wa driven by blokes like Lewis, Jennings, Petero, Waterhouse and Tahu being released which freed up a heap of cap space and allowed them to recruit. When we tried to release overpaid players, no one wanted them and we were stuck with them. Ballin fits the experienced professional mould, but will be lucky to get a game here

 

[Nelson]

We need a roster overhaul in the same way that Penrith did and we need a change in our whole approach to roster management. I no longer think we are going to fix this by signing a single, big name centre or second rower. Sticking a Matt Gillett or an Ethan Lowe in that team is just going to make them look average and burn a whole heap of cap space. We need to bring in enough seasoned professionals that the attitude around training and commitment on game day starts to shift. Attitude and professionalism should be key features that we start giving more weight to as part of our recruitment.

We also (obviously) need to dedicate far less of our cap to locking up junior talent based on potential. We get played like absolute fools by player managers in these negotiations and pay far more than any other rival clubs could possibly be offering.

 

[goldcoast_tiger]

We need a roster overhaul in the same way that Penrith did and we need a change in our whole approach to roster management. I no longer think we are going to fix this by signing a single, big name centre or second rower. Sticking a Matt Gillett or an Ethan Lowe in that team is just going to make them look average and burn a whole heap of cap space. We need to bring in enough seasoned professionals that the attitude around training and commitment on game day starts to shift. Attitude and professionalism should be key features that we start giving more weight to as part of our recruitment.

We also (obviously) need to dedicate far less of our cap to locking up junior talent based on potential. We get played like absolute fools by player managers in these negotiations and pay far more than any other rival clubs could possibly be offering.[/quote

 

[GNR4LIFE]

I appreciate the time taken for the analysis, but for me Penrith are anything but poster-child for short- and long-term success.

From 2005-2015 they won 44.32% of games (worse than Tigers) and made the finals 2/11 seasons (18.18%, worse than Tigers). If you take it back further than 2000, their finals strike rate improves to 5/16 (31.25%) and they have the 2003 premiership and minor premiership, but they also got the 2001 wooden spoon.

By the general "forum fan" measurement of success, < 50% finals appearances is not acceptable. Since 2000 Penrith have used 5 coaches, same as WT, and they cut their last coach (whom they head-hunted and is still well-respected) more recently than we did.

This is not even taking into account the better financial position of their football club, better facilities and larger leagues club backing (Penrith Panthers have 50% more members than Wests Ashfield and Campbo combined, plus 23% more revenue).

Penrith also sit on one of the biggest, if not the biggest, junior rugby league nurseries in the world.

So tell me about how Broncos turned things around post Henjak/Griffin and how they lean on their huge membership and advertising revenues. Tell me about how Souths went on an amazing membership drive and the success of their private ownership, which eventually delivered a premiership. Tell me about the movings and shakings of the Roosters heavies who got the club to 3 consecutive minor premierships after missing the finals 3/4 of the previous years (including a wooden spoon). Tell me about how Bulldogs have managed 2 GF appearances in the last 4 years, or how Manly got to 4 out of the last 9 (including 2 premierships).

But don't ask me to look over Penrith with admiration, because they are just 2 wins better than us this year and have a history of non-performance equally as poor as our own. We would be copying the wrong people.

Not sure why your using stats that go all the way back to 2000\. If anything it proves how far they've come. There's no way you can say that since 2011 they haven't been a well run organisation. And as far the their win percentage in that time, I guarantee it would be better than ours in our re-building phase.

I grant you we don't have the leagues club backing they have, but that's no excuse for not managing your roster smartly. We can easily do what they did by releasing overhyped and over paid never-gonna-be's and replace them with experienced stop gaps till we can upgrade them too. And considering our boss is someone who came from the Panthers and had a first hand look at how successful it's been, it wouldn't surprise me if he has an eye for replicating what they've done.

 

[larrycorowa]

What people are failing to realise is that current management is hamstrung by decisions of previous management.

That said it is not clearly apparent that the majority of our current list are not up to it. We need to sign about 4-6 proven first graders for 2017.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

What people are failing to realise is that current management is hamstrung by decisions of previous management.

That said it is not clearly apparent that the majority of our current list are not up to it. We need to sign about 4-6 proven first graders for 2017.

Which won't happen. It's very much a view towards 2018.

 

[Nelson]

What people are failing to realise is that current management is hamstrung by decisions of previous management.

That said it is not clearly apparent that the majority of our current list are not up to it. We need to sign about 4-6 proven first graders for 2017.

Which won't happen. It's very much a view towards 2018.

We can get the ball rolling by signing a couple of proven first graders for next season but we won't be able to purge the players overpaid on potential until the end of 2017.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

What people are failing to realise is that current management is hamstrung by decisions of previous management.

That said it is not clearly apparent that the majority of our current list are not up to it. We need to sign about 4-6 proven first graders for 2017.

Which won't happen. It's very much a view towards 2018.

We can get the ball rolling by signing a couple of proven first graders for next season but we won't be able to purge the players overpaid on potential until the end of 2017.

You can argue that's already been done signing Grant and ET

 

[Demps]

2011 team loos average, compared to today's standards.

 

[tsjonathan]

In 2011, The Panthers were struggling. They got off to a terrible start winning just 2 of their first 8 games. As a result Matthew Elliott was sacked and the club set their sights on Tim Sheens. We all know what happened there. Sheens held our club over a barrel and re-signed with us for another 3 yrs. As a result of Sheens staying with us, the Panthers were left up the proverbial creek without a paddle. I remember reading in the paper at the time that a board member sent a text message to Phil Gould saying (paraphrasing) ''I don't know what we're suppose to do now, he's the only guy we wanted''. Looking back, that probably was the best thing to happen to the club, not just because they wouldn't have to endure yrs of backrowers covering every position known to man, wingers on benches and Sheens picking his favourites, somehow they convinced Gus to come on board as general manager and imo, the best signing they've ever made.

Now lets look at the Panthers playing squad in 2011

Luke Lewis
Trent Waterhouse
Michael Gordon
Matthew Bell
Nathan Smith
Michael Jennings
Tim Grant
Petero Civoniceva
Brad Tighe
Joseph Paulo
Sam McKendry
Masada Iosefa
Lachclan Coote
Luke Walsh
Adrian Purtell
Travis Burns
Kevin Kingston
Sandor Earl
Michael Simmons
Arana Taumata
Nafe Seluini
Yileen Gordon
Michael Worrincy
Timana Tahu
Sarafu Fatiaki
Nigel Plum
Brendon Gibb
Tim Winitana
Dayne Weston

There's a bit of talent there, but there were a lot of nuffies. And the marquee guys, Gordon, Jennings in particular were underperforming and stale. Really not that much better of a roster than our current roster if you were to be honest. So Gus comes in, hires Cleary and he makes a few signings for 2012\. They are

Cameron Ciraldo, Chris Armit, Danny Galea , Clint Newton, Geoff Daniela , Junior Tia-Kilifi, Etu Uaisele, Ryan Simpkins

Meanwhile losing

Timana Tahu , Shane Elford, Trent Waterhouse Junior Paulo, Matthew Bell , Petero Civoniceva, Adrian Purtell, Arana Taumata, Masada Iosefa, Tim Winitana, Michael Worrincy, Daine Laurie

Half of the players that left were released, and if you look at those players a lot are just as average as what we have now. Sure there's Petero and Waterhouse, but Petero's time at the Panthers had run its course and Waterhouse wasn't the same player he was earlier in his career. Already Gus is laying the foundations, letting go deadwood and players that have run their race at the club, and adding experienced journeymen like Clint Newton, Danny Galea and Chris Armit. Sure these guys aren't world beaters, but their experienced fresh faces there to give the club the push it needs.

Lets move on to 2013

The clubs recruits have managed to get of higher quality

Sam Anderson, Lewis Brown, Tom Humble, Isaac John, Jeremy Lattimore, Sika Manu, Mose Masoe, Wes Naiqama, James Robers, Dean Whare

Meanwhile releasing more deadwood and players who need a change of scenery

Travis Burns, Michael Gordon, Michael Jennings, Luke Lewis, Nafe Seluni

In 2013 they won 11 games just finishing 2 points out of the 8\. Things were starting to move along now, especially after they went into the market and had their best recruitment drive yet signing

Jamie Soward, Peter Wallace, Elijah Taylor, Brent Kite, Jamal Idris and Kevin Naiqama

That yr despite a decimated injury toll they made it all the way to a pre lim final

2015 was a bust of a yr. They could not overcome a horrendous injury toll. They were relatively quiet with the sole acquisition of Apisai Koroisau.

But 2016 is where they were able to enjoy the fruits of their labour when they were able to attract Trent Merrin and Peta Hiku. And they now appear favourites for James Tamou.

So the pattern here is that once Gus came in, he changed everything. Recruiting every yr gradually became better and better. He realized that to be successful that you need to recruit well. He didn't solely rely on juniors, even with the biggest junior base in the country. He knew it was important to have a mix. Guys like Moylan and Cartwright have benefited greatly as they haven't had to come in, like the majority of our kids and have to do it all on their own, they came in when they were ready and playing alongside men and look at them go.

This is how we need our team run. Yes, it's a 5 yr plan, and a re-building phase, but it will be a much more competitive phase than what we're going through atm. We need seasoned first graders who can be stop gaps, who will still improve us and move us up the ladder, with a view into 3 or 5 yrs, to bringing in guys like your Merrin's and Tamou's who can really ice the cake.

People say we need this person, and we need that person. Over the last 5 yrs its been proven that the man you need is Gus. Yes he's a jerk and a windbag, but he's the smartest operator in the game. It would be a dream to score him. I know we won't though, but the least we can do is try and copy the model the Panthers have used since he arrived.

I agree with this so much.

I've said over and over you look at successful sports teams and it all begins with a successful back office. People behind the scenes. At the end of the day it's a business. People on here talking about signing Gubb, Elijah Taylor etc is not going to make any significant difference until there are wholesale changes off the park. I just watched the Golden State Warrriors video on how they did it too. They were a rubbish team for decades and look at them now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD-UkQ5Assk

Have a read on Masai Ujiri, Rich Cho and I'm sure there are plenty in other sports like the All Blacks etc

 

[tsjonathan]

What people are failing to realise is that current management is hamstrung by decisions of previous management.

That said it is not clearly apparent that the majority of our current list are not up to it. We need to sign about 4-6 proven first graders for 2017.

Which won't happen. It's very much a view towards 2018.

We can get the ball rolling by signing a couple of proven first graders for next season but we won't be able to purge the players overpaid on potential until the end of 2017.

You can argue that's already been done signing Grant and ET

Focus needs to be on who we have in the office. That's the heart of the issue

 

[Nelson]

I agree with this so much.

I've said over and over you look at successful sports teams and it all begins with a successful back office. People behind the scenes. At the end of the day it's a business. People on here talking about signing Gubb, Elijah Taylor etc is not going to make any significant difference until there are wholesale changes off the park. I just watched the Golden State Warrriors video on how they did it too. They were a rubbish team for decades and look at them now.

Have a read on Masai Ujiri, Rich Cho and I'm sure there are plenty in other sports like the All Blacks etc

So we just sign Steph Curry and we'll be sweet? :wink:

A change in the type of signings we target will make a difference over time. More in the mould of Grant and Taylor and staying away from signings like Gubb - who plays loose and with poor discipline in a trainwreck of a team. If we can't make a disciplined and competitive culture ourselves then we maybe we need to bring in players that come from clubs with that kind of background who will be self-disciplined. It's something Matt Ballin may yet bring and part of the reason I didn't agree with those saying he was a terrible signing.

I also think Rankin was a good signing but he's being poorly utilised. His talent is evident from how young he came onto the scene and from his play in ESL. He's still young and he was hungry for a shot. There are plenty of positives in the combination of youth, talent and hunger.

So I think we're starting to move in the right direction recruitment wise, but we need to keep it up. Target under-utilised talent. Target some old hard heads that will go out and do a job every week even if it isn't flashy. The other side to it is team selection though. If you get players in who are hungry for a shot and work hard for their chance then give them a shot. Make every player earn their selection every week so that they know if they don't make the effort to close that gap, or get back into the line then their spot will be up for grabs. If we're not going to do that then there's no point recruiting guys like Rankin, MCK, JAC, Littlejohn and Griffin. They'll get sick of being starved of opportunities and will just give up, or leave.

 

[tsjonathan]

I agree with this so much.

I've said over and over you look at successful sports teams and it all begins with a successful back office. People behind the scenes. At the end of the day it's a business. People on here talking about signing Gubb, Elijah Taylor etc is not going to make any significant difference until there are wholesale changes off the park. I just watched the Golden State Warrriors video on how they did it too. They were a rubbish team for decades and look at them now.

Have a read on Masai Ujiri, Rich Cho and I'm sure there are plenty in other sports like the All Blacks etc

So we just sign Steph Curry and we'll be sweet? :wink:

Steph actually took 3-4 years to develop and Monta was arguably holding him back. COuld be compared to Brooks and Moses.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/golden-state-warriors-monta-ellis-stephen-curry-020916

 

[jirskyr]

Not sure why your using stats that go all the way back to 2000\. If anything it proves how far they've come. There's no way you can say that since 2011 they haven't been a well run organisation. And as far the their win percentage in that time, I guarantee it would be better than ours in our re-building phase.

I grant you we don't have the leagues club backing they have, but that's no excuse for not managing your roster smartly. We can easily do what they did by releasing overhyped and over paid never-gonna-be's and replace them with experienced stop gaps till we can upgrade them too. And considering our boss is someone who came from the Panthers and had a first hand look at how successful it's been, it wouldn't surprise me if he has an eye for replicating what they've done.

I included stats to 2000 so we didn't ignore the fact that Penrith won a comp in 2003\. If you take Penrith's record only since 2005, then it's really very poor.

And no I don't think you can argue "how far they've come", because just like us they had a dominant period in the 2000s that has since evaporated.

Since 2011, "the rebuilding period" you refer to - well your argument holds even less water. From 2011-2015 Penrith won 52/120 regular-season games (43.33%) which is just 1 game more than WT (51/120 = 42.50%). They made the finals once in 2014, same as we did in 2011 - both teams at 20%. Their single finals campaign was 1 win, 1 loss - same as us in 2011.

Penrith have come 11th, 4th, 10th, 15th and 12th in the last 5 years.

When everyone here bemoans how bad Tigers have done since our golden period of 2010-11, and we have done badly, Penrith match up in just about every category.

Even same as Tigers, they generally have very good 20s sides that don't translate to FG success.

I am not arguing that Penrith are not a well-run organisation, or that they do not have good people in their offices, or that their 5-year plans are not solid on paper.

BUT none of this has equaled success on the field. So if we copy Penrith, I don't know what people are expecting to happen, because for all the competency behind-the-scenes they may have, they are as bad as we are on-field.

In terms of releasing over-hyped players, well that doesn't always hold up. Some prominent examples:
- Luke Lewis - 3 completed seasons at Sharks, 58 games, 2 finals appearances (the other year was the drug scandal), 6 Origin matches
- M Jennings – 71 appearances for Roosters in 3 seasons, 3 minor premierships, 1 premiership, 8 Origin appearances
- Gordon – 71 appearances for Sharks, first-choice FB for Eels
- Coote – 35 appearances for Cowboys in 2 years, 2 finals series, 1 premiership
Then you get less-prominent guys like Blake Austin, Tim Grant doing some good things at other clubs as well.

I think it is very reasonable to argue that some of these released players went on to very high levels of success at other clubs. Maybe they were “stale” and underperforming at Penrith, but you can argue it’s the club and coach’s job to get the most out of the roster they have (i.e. player management). The same argument gets bandied around here all the time, about players released by us who do well at other clubs (and actually I’d struggle to find 4 such good examples of players who Tigers let go that won comps and played Origins – Fifita?)

Penrith are basing their current campaign on a few veterans – Soward, Wallace, plus a crop of youngsters like Cartwright, Moylan, DZW, Waqa Blake, RCG, Te Maire Martin. This is all fine, it’s a good strategy, but only if these players come on as planned. If they do a Broses and perform at a middling level, then you are back to square-one.

 

[tigermac88]

Not sure why your using stats that go all the way back to 2000\. If anything it proves how far they've come. There's no way you can say that since 2011 they haven't been a well run organisation. And as far the their win percentage in that time, I guarantee it would be better than ours in our re-building phase.

I grant you we don't have the leagues club backing they have, but that's no excuse for not managing your roster smartly. We can easily do what they did by releasing overhyped and over paid never-gonna-be's and replace them with experienced stop gaps till we can upgrade them too. And considering our boss is someone who came from the Panthers and had a first hand look at how successful it's been, it wouldn't surprise me if he has an eye for replicating what they've done.

I included stats to 2000 so we didn't ignore the fact that Penrith won a comp in 2003\. If you take Penrith's record only since 2005, then it's really very poor.

And no I don't think you can argue "how far they've come", because just like us they had a dominant period in the 2000s that has since evaporated.

Since 2011, "the rebuilding period" you refer to - well your argument holds even less water. From 2011-2015 Penrith won 52/120 regular-season games (43.33%) which is just 1 game more than WT (51/120 = 42.50%). They made the finals once in 2014, same as we did in 2011 - both teams at 20%. Their single finals campaign was 1 win, 1 loss - same as us in 2011.

Penrith have come 11th, 4th, 10th, 15th and 12th in the last 5 years.

When everyone here bemoans how bad Tigers have done since our golden period of 2010-11, and we have done badly, Penrith match up in just about every category.

Even same as Tigers, they generally have very good 20s sides that don't translate to FG success.

I am not arguing that Penrith are not a well-run organisation, or that they do not have good people in their offices, or that their 5-year plans are not solid on paper.

BUT none of this has equaled success on the field. So if we copy Penrith, I don't know what people are expecting to happen, because for all the competency behind-the-scenes they may have, they are as bad as we are on-field.

In terms of releasing over-hyped players, well that doesn't always hold up. Some prominent examples:
- Luke Lewis - 3 completed seasons at Sharks, 58 games, 2 finals appearances (the other year was the drug scandal), 6 Origin matches
- M Jennings – 71 appearances for Roosters in 3 seasons, 3 minor premierships, 1 premiership, 8 Origin appearances
- Gordon – 71 appearances for Sharks, first-choice FB for Eels
- Coote – 35 appearances for Cowboys in 2 years, 2 finals series, 1 premiership
Then you get less-prominent guys like Blake Austin, Tim Grant doing some good things at other clubs as well.

I think it is very reasonable to argue that some of these released players went on to very high levels of success at other clubs. Maybe they were “stale” and underperforming at Penrith, but you can argue it’s the club and coach’s job to get the most out of the roster they have (i.e. player management). The same argument gets bandied around here all the time, about players released by us who do well at other clubs (and actually I’d struggle to find 4 such good examples of players who Tigers let go that won comps and played Origins – Fifita?)

Penrith are basing their current campaign on a few veterans – Soward, Wallace, plus a crop of youngsters like Cartwright, Moylan, DZW, Waqa Blake, RCG, Te Maire Martin. This is all fine, it’s a good strategy, but only if these players come on as planned. If they do a Broses and perform at a middling level, then you are back to square-one.

That pretty much sums it up…. Great post