Analysis of seasons past- results surprise

[ricksen]

This thread is degenerating a tad.
It's clear JT and the WT in general don't give a brass razoo about the 2015 season, as it's clearly all about building for years beyond. Fair enough.
The youth excuse won't wash next season and beyond, so I hope the powers that be are prepared to be judged on their results more so moving forward.

 

[boonboon]

Seriously I wish Taylor (and his stats men in here) would stop with the nauseating were improving and were going to ram these stats down your thraot to prove it. Better off just saying look were in last place, we need to do a better job.

Exactly. Accept reality and show some class. That is where you need to start from. The spin is getting old.

I wish the JT haters would stop being such wingy little bitches with thier I know better then anyone because I wath the game and am over opionated tosser who can't look past our postion on the ladder and actually study something and start supporting the team and club, start having a positive attitude and stop being sooo nauseating

 

[stevetiger]

Seriously I wish Taylor (and his stats men in here) would stop with the nauseating were improving and were going to ram these stats down your thraot to prove it. Better off just saying look were in last place, we need to do a better job.

Exactly. Accept reality and show some class. That is where you need to start from. The spin is getting old.

I wish the JT haters would stop being such wingy little [automatically edited] with thier I know better then anyone because I wath the game and am over opionated tosser who can't look past our postion on the ladder and actually study something and start supporting the team and club, start having a positive attitude and stop being sooo nauseating

Who are the haters. All I see is one group justifying coming dead last and another stating dead last is pretty ordinary.

 

[Jerry_Seinfeld]

This is an essay.

Whilst becoming tired of the “impression”-based comments on the forum, I decided to do an analysis of exactly how the team / coach has performed over the seasons, with an emphasis on comparing 2015 to previous years.

The results surprised in many ways.

Rather than being the defensive disaster that is often suggested (including by me), 2015 is actually:
- 6th best season as measured by points conceded per game
- 5th best season as measured by average loss margin
- 3rd best season as measured by points conceded per loss
- Best season as measured by points conceded per win

In 2015, it is the attack figures that are not so good:
- 3rd worst season as measured by points scored per game
- 7th worst season as measured by for/against margin per game and by points scored per loss
- 5th worst season as measured by points scored per win

But there is a strange up-side to the attack in 2015:
- 3rd best season for average win margin
- best ever season for points conceded (lowest) during a win.

Specifically for JT, we are definitely improving when it comes to scoring points and keeping the opposition out. There are no doubts the attack and defence are both improved over anything experienced during the Potter years.

For example, JT is:
- 2nd best coach as measured by points conceded per game
- 2nd as measured by for/against margin per game
- best as measured by 4 other metrics: average win margin, average loss margin, average points conceded during wins, average points condeded during losses.

Which raises the question - if the attack and defence aren’t the worst ever, and the coach is comparably well-placed, how is it that 2015 is a strong chance of being our first ever wooden spoon? 2015 is the 4th-worst for win percentage of all seasons, and also 4th-worst for average placing on the table. We have only ever fallen to last place once before: season 2013 (5 weeks at 16th).

It appears that the answer is quite subtle.

Firstly: coming last may be a measure of how even a competition is. In other words, if there are no easy-beats, there might not be an obvious candidate to save you from coming last, and the bottom-placed teams may share a decent amount of wins. Parra saved us from coming last in 2013.

But specifically for Tigers in 2015, our issue appears to be with the Jekyll/Hyde nature of our performances. When we win, our defence goes to another level, and the winning margin is very strong (even taking into account that we had a 1-point win in Rd 1). In other words, our winning scores aren’t special, but our winning defence is easily the best we’ve ever had – only 9.6 points conceded per win and an average win margin if 17.4.

In contrast, when we lose, we aren’t conceding lots of points and we aren’t copping many hidings (losing margins are modest). Instead, we are losing because we are not scoring enough points – 14.5 points scored per loss, whilst conceding 27.92

It seems that for some reason, our performances are either really good (i.e. both attack and defence click) or they are poor without being dreadful. There does not appear much in-between, such as many hard-ground wins or absolute floggings. If the game is close, we invariably lose, which is not surprising, given the age and inexperience of our side.

This speaks to me as being two issues. Firstly: mental; we can be flat-track bullies or easy-beats in consecutive weeks. Secondly, we probably have a few key weaknesses, such as lack of centres depth, that hamstring our attack and stop us making the most of a decent defensive record.

What the results don’t tell you is whether our wins occur because good defence sets a platform for improved attack, or because good defence is irrelevant if you can’t score points. Should we attack more and hope the defence comes on, or work more on defence to make up for attacking deficiencies?

To answer this, you’d need to review the tapes to see the flow of games – whether good attack results in best defence, or whether best defence permits good attack. We’ve certainly had games where we both blew the opposition away early (Dragons) and late in the match (Eels). It’s a bit too chicken-egg for me at this stage.

Now don’t go off half-cocked and say “I told you JT was spending too much time on defensive structures”, because there is no specific evidence in the results that says we can’t attack and defend at the same time. Our wins are almost exclusively made up of our best defence and bestattack.

It may simply be true that our attack is not mature enough or sophisticated enough to trouble the good sides, and our defence is still not good enough to cover that deficiency.

Also bear in mind that all this analysis is being done against previous seasons, which for the most part are losing seasons. These are comparisons against previous Tigers sides, so saying defence is better, is not necessarily saying the defence is good enough to trouble the best sides. Similarly, attack may only be down compared to the very flamboyant Tigers sides of the mid 2000s.

Must say Ive been waiting to see stats like these cause while we are currently coming last to me we actually seem more competitive this year than last year.The Bulldogs,Raiders,Cowboys,Eels,Knights games for example were games at some stage in the second half of these games we looked like winning.Ok we didn't win and that is an issue more re youth than anything(and reffing re eels game :imp: )but last year seamt if we didn't win we were getting smacked each week and we weren't even close to winning.Just cant remember many close losses last year.

Heck even last week against the Broncos we were down 26 nil and we very nearly made it 26-22 when Marty almost barged over.I must say that this year despite our predicament re salary cap etc our young and often maligned players continue to fight week in and week out and even in the last two weeks against Parra and Brisbane we have fought back with sheer will and determination after suffering very slow starts.JT Must of said something right in the sheds at halftime last week cause we came out looking like worldbeaters(until Simona went off injured :unamused: )

 

[stevetiger]

Must say Ive been waiting to see stats like these cause while we are currently coming last to me we actually seem more competitive this year than last year.The Bulldogs,Raiders,Cowboys,Eels,Knights games for example were games at some stage in the second half of these games we looked like winning.Ok we didn't win and that is an issue more re youth than anything(and reffing re eels game :imp: )but last year seamt if we didn't win we were getting smacked each week and we weren't even close to winning.Just cant remember many close losses last year.

Heck even last week against the Broncos we were down 26 nil and we very nearly made it 26-22 when Marty almost barged over.I must say that this year despite our predicament re salary cap etc our young and often maligned players continue to fight week in and week out and even in the last two weeks against Parra and Brisbane we have fought back with sheer will and determination after suffering very slow starts.JT Must of said something right in the sheds at halftime last week cause we came out looking like worldbeaters(until Simona went off injured :unamused: )

One thing I will say is that I honestly don't think our squad is that bad. I reckon with a smart signing or two and if some players kick on we can really improve.

I also think that JT has to learn how to coach this team and come up with a good game plan. At the same time I really hope that he recognises this and there are signs that he accepts how badly he has stuffed up. If you listen to the recent coaches comments he actually states that he has changed the game plan and we don't appear to be playing the dumb Taylor ball that we were at the start of the season.

 

[ryanda01]

Ohhh dear. Typical WTF responses to a large amount of work to justify our position his season; not any other hidden agenda like some of you would think.

Firstly, nice one jirskyr on the work. Will try to put my summary as quick as possible.

- If JT wants to improve on an area, he needs to know where to look. He can't, like some of you mention, see that he hasn't won many games and know what area to target.
- If you wanted to model every scenario for every variable, the data set would break the internet quicker then Kim Kardaschian (apologies for the reference)
- Yes, the data can be used to prove anything you want it to. That's the beauty of it. If you have seen Moneyball, you realise that the data you have is immensely important in both reviewing past performances and upcoming matches.
- I don't agree with flooding these stats to the media or the dressing room. Should be used in private between the coaching staff to really address the biggest problems.
- Plenty more to come for the rest of the season, strap in!

 

[dimitri]

Excellent post.

The difference in close games this year comes down to luck. That is, the bounce of the ball and the referees.

The Tigers have been hammered in penalties this year (eg 7-19 against in the last 2 games and 0-7 against Canberra after the big lead hence the comeback).

It is a fact that all bottom placed teams in all competitions get hammered by bad decisions.

How many bad decisions have we copped this year? Disallowed tries for obstruction against Cowboys at home; Galloway goes through defensive line as decoy and yet the try is disallowed for obstruction against Raiders; Knights kicking out in the scrum and ref says play-on; Perret blatantly knocks-on after kick-off against Dogs when scores are tied and 2 min to go WTF!!!

Don't get me started because after each game this year I shake my head and think we have copped utterly biased "bllsht!" from the refs.

 

[pHyR3]

wow absolutely amazing analysis there!

very insightful, gives me a bit of hope for the future. your average supporter primarily looks at the scoreboard of the previous week and the ladder (hence why this forum will go from euphoria against souths or dogs to calls for JT to be axed within 10 days quite easily).

this is some really interesting stats that prove that inexperience and a couple of deficiencies in positions are primarily to blame (like you said, and has been apparent all year) but that we're also not that far off being an alright team!

Taylor might tell them all this and he might be right.

However you can have all the stats you want.

I agree 100% with Tiger Tim from the Gong. I judge coaches on how players respond. **Do you think Wayne Bennett rattles on about stats?** I reckon he just knows how to man mange each individual and create a environment where everyone wants to run through a brick wall for one another. Taylor could have the best game plan and structure in the world. However as he draws his drawings on the chalk board at half time if the players are thinking "here he goes again the p…." then your in trouble as a coach.

We have not seemed like a very motivated side in games this year. At least under Potter there was some real fire in our forwards before the injuries set in

did JT make this thread??

true, but despite that we have better defence this year than last. in fact, better D than MOST years.

keep in mind the spooners of 2013 had a PD of minus FOUR HUNDRED. at worst we might finish around the -200 mark (and probably spoon if that happens). its not a bottom heavy comp this year which makes our position seem worse than it might be.

dont get me wrong, we're s#!thouse. but our defence is improving, if we can improve again next year and get our attack in order we can look a pushing into the 8.

i dont see removing JT as a positive move. he gets 2 years just like potter did. sacking coaches every year will never see us get anywhere.

 

[Russell]

wow absolutely amazing analysis there!

very insightful, gives me a bit of hope for the future. your average supporter primarily looks at the scoreboard of the previous week and the ladder (hence why this forum will go from euphoria against souths or dogs to calls for JT to be axed within 10 days quite easily).

this is some really interesting stats that prove that inexperience and a couple of deficiencies in positions are primarily to blame (like you said, and has been apparent all year) but that we're also not that far off being an alright team!

Taylor might tell them all this and he might be right.

However you can have all the stats you want.

I agree 100% with Tiger Tim from the Gong. I judge coaches on how players respond. **Do you think Wayne Bennett rattles on about stats?** I reckon he just knows how to man mange each individual and create a environment where everyone wants to run through a brick wall for one another. Taylor could have the best game plan and structure in the world. However as he draws his drawings on the chalk board at half time if the players are thinking "here he goes again the p…." then your in trouble as a coach.

We have not seemed like a very motivated side in games this year. At least under Potter there was some real fire in our forwards before the injuries set in

did JT make this thread??

true, but despite that we have better defence this year than last. in fact, better D than MOST years.

keep in mind the spooners of 2013 had a PD of minus FOUR HUNDRED. at worst we might finish around the -200 mark (and probably spoon if that happens). its not a bottom heavy comp this year which makes our position seem worse than it might be.

dont get me wrong, we're s#!thouse. but our defence is improving, if we can improve again next year and get our attack in order we can look a pushing into the 8.

i dont see removing JT as a positive move. he gets 2 years just like potter did. sacking coaches every year will never see us get anywhere.

Why does he get 2 years? They signed him for 3.

 

[pHyR3]

wow absolutely amazing analysis there!

very insightful, gives me a bit of hope for the future. your average supporter primarily looks at the scoreboard of the previous week and the ladder (hence why this forum will go from euphoria against souths or dogs to calls for JT to be axed within 10 days quite easily).

this is some really interesting stats that prove that inexperience and a couple of deficiencies in positions are primarily to blame (like you said, and has been apparent all year) but that we're also not that far off being an alright team!

Taylor might tell them all this and he might be right.

However you can have all the stats you want.

I agree 100% with Tiger Tim from the Gong. I judge coaches on how players respond. **Do you think Wayne Bennett rattles on about stats?** I reckon he just knows how to man mange each individual and create a environment where everyone wants to run through a brick wall for one another. Taylor could have the best game plan and structure in the world. However as he draws his drawings on the chalk board at half time if the players are thinking "here he goes again the p…." then your in trouble as a coach.

We have not seemed like a very motivated side in games this year. At least under Potter there was some real fire in our forwards before the injuries set in

did JT make this thread??

true, but despite that we have better defence this year than last. in fact, better D than MOST years.

keep in mind the spooners of 2013 had a PD of minus FOUR HUNDRED. at worst we might finish around the -200 mark (and probably spoon if that happens). its not a bottom heavy comp this year which makes our position seem worse than it might be.

dont get me wrong, we're s#!thouse. but our defence is improving, if we can improve again next year and get our attack in order we can look a pushing into the 8.

i dont see removing JT as a positive move. he gets 2 years just like potter did. sacking coaches every year will never see us get anywhere.

Why does he get 2 years? They signed him for 3.

i meant at a minimum he should get 2\. i mean if we're at the bottom again next year im happy to look elsewhere.