Based on past seasons (draws are half a win)
Year
Minor Premiers
4th
8th
2009
17 wins
14.5 wins
12.5 wins
2008
17 wins
15 wins
13 wins
2007
21 wins
13.5 wins
11 wins
2006
20 wins
14 wins
12 wins
Basically, 17 wins will be close to minor premiers. Manly in 2007 had 18, Cronulla and Manly in 2008, as well as Canterbury this year had 17, other than that, every team to rack up 17 wins has won the minor premiership
14 wins should wrap up a top 4 spot, Manly and St George in 06 had 14 and missed out, along with Manly and Brisbane in 09\. Brisbane in 08 had 14.5 and missed out (the only side to have 14 and miss out on points not f/a)
13 wins should wrap up a top 8 spot. No side has missed out with 13 wins in the past 4 years, although several have missed out with 12.
With that I will say
Completely injury free, 17 wins
A few injuries to key players, 15 wins
Epic injury toll 13 wins (just get into the 8 and go from there)