Ivan Cleary effect takes hold at Wests Tigers

[Tiger_Watto]

I dont think that is our best 17 and the effect Ivan is having on our fans is more disturbing.

Lets see how it all washes up in September!

 

[goldcoast_tiger]

That team is no where near the best 17.

Its not the first ive seen that has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

I honestly think we will roll the Roosters.. I wonder what the odds will be.

Big, if we don’t beat them in round 1; we never will.

 

[851]

That team is no where near the best 17.

Its not the first ive seen that has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

I honestly think we will roll the Roosters.. I wonder what the odds will be.

Try Sportsbet $5 to make the 8\. I’m on it before we get off to a flyer.

I am also on it @ $5

 

[Mac]

Vic TAB has us at $6 for the 8 and $81 for the premiership. Every time I've had a spare $100 in my account I've jumped in at $5 & now $6.

I've got a good feeling about my chances of collecting.

 

[jirskyr]

That team is no where near the best 17.

Its not the first ive seen that has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

I honestly think we will roll the Roosters.. I wonder what the odds will be.

Close to $4 I'd reckon

I was mulling that over the other day. If there are no major injuries to the Roosters I expect Tigers will be $4+ coming into Round 1, I'd guess around $4.35.

It might depend how the final trials go, but Tigers are usually underestimated early in the season. I normally bet fairly aggressively on Tigers and against Warriors early, because I reckon the bookies usually get them wrong in the early season, before the comp settles and the form is more apparent.

I can tell you for a fact, in the last 4 years, first 3 rounds Tigers average odds have been $2.65 at home (we won 4/5) and $2.74 away (we won 4/7). That's a 67% win rate at an average payout above $2.50, and $2.50 equates to a bookie win confidence of 17.5% (i.e. ~50% disparity between bookie confidence and actual results).

 

[happy_tiger]

Its not the first ive seen that has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

I honestly think we will roll the Roosters.. I wonder what the odds will be.

Close to $4 I'd reckon

I was mulling that over the other day. If there are no major injuries to the Roosters I expect Tigers will be $4+ coming into Round 1, I'd guess around $4.35.

It might depend how the final trials go, but Tigers are usually underestimated early in the season. I normally bet fairly aggressively on Tigers and against Warriors early, because I reckon the bookies usually get them wrong in the early season, before the comp settles and the form is more apparent.

I can tell you for a fact, in the last 4 years, first 3 rounds Tigers average odds have been $2.65 at home (we won 4/5) and $2.74 away (we won 4/7). That's a 67% win rate at an average payout above $2.50, and $2.50 equates to a bookie win confidence of 17.5% (i.e. ~50% disparity between bookie confidence and actual results).

Didn't realize you and BBF were mates :wink:

I reckon the Roosters will be extremely disappointed how easily the Cows rolled them up the middle in the GF qualifier and will want to make an early statement

Even though they haven't loss to us since 2011 , Robinson will want them to perform , he has been given a virtual dream team , if they don't win a premiership Uncle Nick might want to look at other options in the coaches ranks and I'm guessing it's not the back up JT

 

[innsaneink]

Double

 

[innsaneink]

I dont know why anyone takes notice of 'journos' teams…i hope thw semis are closer for us that his previous clubs...if we jag a few early wins (not confident but going in open) the media scrutiny will be immense

 

[Tiger_Watto]

I dont know why anyone takes notice of 'journos' teams…i hope thw semis are closer for us that his previous clubs...if we jag a few early wins (not confident but going in open) the media scrutiny will be immense

I am more confident of jagging a few early wins. While we play some very good teams, most of those teams have new combinations that may need time to build.

I'd rather play the heavy weights early as luck can play a greater part than in August when a finals spot may be on the line.

 

[innsaneink]

I dont know why anyone takes notice of 'journos' teams…i hope thw semis are closer for us that his previous clubs...if we jag a few early wins (not confident but going in open) the media scrutiny will be immense

I am more confident of jagging a few early wins. While we play some very good teams, most of those teams have new combinations that may need time to build.

I'd rather play the heavy weights early as luck can play a greater part than in August when a finals spot may be on the line.

Yep.tru…thats always a.factor.early on....that why i lose.on the punt early on

 

[Geo]

I dont know why anyone takes notice of 'journos' teams…i hope thw semis are closer for us that his previous clubs...if we jag a few early wins (not confident but going in open) the media scrutiny will be immense

I am more confident of jagging a few early wins. While we play some very good teams, most of those teams have new combinations that may need time to build.

I'd rather play the heavy weights early as luck can play a greater part than in August when a finals spot may be on the line.

😱pen_mouth: 😱pen_mouth: New combinations

No Club has turned over the Roster more than Wests Tigers…

 

[innsaneink]

Still….even with two teams both chockfull of new combos...one must be a favourite and one an underdog, ie 'upset'

 

[goldcoast_tiger]

That team is no where near the best 17.

Its not the first ive seen that these experts has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

Marsters and Eisenheuth had a very good end of the year, and I’d rather have them in the team than
Most of the newbies,
Matulino will have to play better than in his last couple of seasons, and I’m still not sold on Packer.

 

[Tiger_Watto]

I dont know why anyone takes notice of 'journos' teams…i hope thw semis are closer for us that his previous clubs...if we jag a few early wins (not confident but going in open) the media scrutiny will be immense

I am more confident of jagging a few early wins. While we play some very good teams, most of those teams have new combinations that may need time to build.

I'd rather play the heavy weights early as luck can play a greater part than in August when a finals spot may be on the line.

😱pen_mouth: 😱pen_mouth: New combinations

No Club has turned over the Roster more than Wests Tigers…

undoubtedly, but all have new combinations in there spine

 

[Spartan117]

Great, Its a word we use way to often …. Lets see in a few years

We Tigers Tragics have been crying out for some stability , let alone success for years.

lets not get too excited to early. (PS Cowboys were horrible on Sat)

**I reserve judgement to see how we go after our very difficult start to 2018 and whether we are still paying overs for recruits in 2019**

 

[Bee-Em]

That team is no where near the best 17.

Its not the first ive seen that these experts has left out Marsters, Eisenheuth and Aloia.

In my mind they are 3 of our best and why a few of us have some confidence in this squad.

If they havent looked at those 3 then they have just dismissed us before a ball has even been kicked.

Hopefully it works in our favour and we take a few by surprise early on.

Marsters and Eisenheuth had a very good end of the year, and I’d rather have them in the team than
Most of the newbies,
Matulino will have to play better than in his last couple of seasons, and I’m still not sold on Packer.

Listening to the wireless yesterday, their "how will the Tigers place in 2018" discussion on Talking Shi.. sorry Talking Sport with Gerrard Conlin (sorry if that's wrong), they were all in agreement that there is no depth in the front row. If either Packer or Matulino get injured, the Tiges will be struggling up front.

Those numpties always seem to struggle to say anything positive about the Tigers I've noticed

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Lol, front row is where we have the most depth

Twal
Grant
Felise
Hooth
Sue

There would be other clubs far thinner.

 

[Mac]

That's a 67% win rate at an average payout above $2.50, and $2.50 equates to a bookie win confidence of 17.5% (i.e. ~50% disparity between bookie confidence and actual results).

jirskyr, a price of $2.50 equates to a probability of 40%. Given that the bookie's profit is also in that price the actual probability they are working on is a bit less. They normally frame their markets to around 115%-125%. In theory, if their market works perfectly they make $15-$25 per $100 wagered.

Having said that, I take your overall point.

 

[goldcoast_tiger]

Lol, front row is where we have the most depth

Twal
Grant
Felise
Hooth
Sue

There would be other clubs far thinner.

I agree on Twal,and Hooth, but I’d hate to have to rely on Grant or Sue
On a regular basis, mostly very ordinary,
Don’t know about Felise ; I haven’t seen him play, or if I have I didn’t notice him

 

[jirskyr]

That's a 67% win rate at an average payout above $2.50, and $2.50 equates to a bookie win confidence of 17.5% (i.e. ~50% disparity between bookie confidence and actual results).

jirskyr, a price of $2.50 equates to a probability of 40%. Given that the bookie's profit is also in that price the actual probability they are working on is a bit less. They normally frame their markets to around 115%-125%. In theory, if their market works perfectly they make $15-$25 per $100 wagered.

Having said that, I take your overall point.

You are right re probability. What I was looking at was a variation from the vig, something I keep an eye on for bets, i.e. the relative distance from $1.91 (in sportsbet's case) as a proposition of bookie confidence.