Isn't "rolling the dice" a form of panicking? Rolling the dice literally means to gamble on an outcome, and strictly speaking that is a 1/6 chance (i.e. low outcome). I've never heard of someone rolling the dice in a calm, measured, self-assured fashion.
It is my opinion that Sheens saw the writing on the wall after his long tenure - that despite some real success, Tigers had only made the finals 3 times, and after the premiership, the club (the board) became aggressive about maintaining regular success.
I think that after failing to win a comp in 2010-2011 (and I would agree there is a consensus even amongst non-Tigers fans that Tigers probably should have won another comp) that Sheens panicked.
Why do I think he panicked?
- He aggressively moved to break up what became called "the boys club", though that playing group had made Tigers a short-lived strong premiership threat
- He fatally agreed to transfer Andrew Fifita in order for Sharks to take on Bryce Gibbs, and Fifita quickly became one of the competition's premier players
- He invested heavily in Adam Blair, hoping that a big-name Melbourne recruit would take the Tigers to another level, and failed to understand the pitfalls of attempting to transfer Storm players out of their system
Obviously in hindsight these things are easy to say when the outcomes are known, but I believe these points speak to a rapid and specific change in tactics, to try and save his coaching career. I call that panicking, but semantics aside, it was a rapid departure for Sheens.
Sheens is old and wily enough to know that the board would not tolerate Tigers failing to remain competitive in 2012. Otherwise, Sheens could have kept doing what he had been doing the past decade and Tigers would have continued to still be a periodic finals contender (about 50% of the time).
BTW not blaming Sheens for anything beyond 2012.
Anyhow the proof is in the pudding, is it not? Sheens gambled, Tigers crashed spectacularly in 2012 and Sheens was sacked. These are not the outcomes of a calm, measured coach who is building long-term plans, it is an outcome for someone who can smell the winds of change.