I thought I’d have a look at the ladder position after the final round for the last 20 years (yeah, sad I know!) where a team has lost its first 2 or 3 games in a row. When the comp was 15 teams I treated the bye as if it didn’t exist even though the team got 2 points. This all assumes the accuracy of Wiki.
Interestingly, if you lost your first 3 games in a row you were more likely to play in a Grand Final than if you’d lost only your first 2 (but less likely to win it).
Anyway, interesting stats.
**2 losses in a row**
Of the 78 teams that lost their first two, 24 of them made the eight (30.8%). Of those that made the eight 4 teams ended up playing in a Grand Final and of those, 3 of them won it (Penrith ‘03, Manly ’08 and North Queensland ’15). New Zealand lost the GF in ’11.
So lose your first 2 games and there was a 5.1% chance you’d play in a Grand Final – and a 3.8% chance you’d win it.
**3 losses in a row**
Of the 38 teams that lost their first three, 8 made the eight (21.1%). Of those that made the eight only 2 made it to the Grand Final. New Zealand in ’11 where they lost and North Queensland who won the GF in 2015.
Lose your first 3 games and there was a 5.3% chance of playing in a Grand Final and a 2.6% chance of winning it.
**Worst teams**
Cronulla, NZ & Manly have all lost their first 2 games 8 times. St George & Penrith 7 times
Cronulla lost their first 3 games 5 times. Gold Coast, NZ, North Queensland all lost 3 times
**Best teams**
Melbourne have lost their first 2 games once in 20 years and have NEVER lost 3 in a row
Wests Tigers and Brisbane have only lost their first 2 games once and their first 3 games once. For both teams it happened in the same year. In 2007 Wests Tigers lost their first 4 games (before finishing 9th!) and in the same year Brisbane lost their first 3 and slipped into the 8.
Interestingly, if you lost your first 3 games in a row you were more likely to play in a Grand Final than if you’d lost only your first 2 (but less likely to win it).
Anyway, interesting stats.
**2 losses in a row**
Of the 78 teams that lost their first two, 24 of them made the eight (30.8%). Of those that made the eight 4 teams ended up playing in a Grand Final and of those, 3 of them won it (Penrith ‘03, Manly ’08 and North Queensland ’15). New Zealand lost the GF in ’11.
So lose your first 2 games and there was a 5.1% chance you’d play in a Grand Final – and a 3.8% chance you’d win it.
**3 losses in a row**
Of the 38 teams that lost their first three, 8 made the eight (21.1%). Of those that made the eight only 2 made it to the Grand Final. New Zealand in ’11 where they lost and North Queensland who won the GF in 2015.
Lose your first 3 games and there was a 5.3% chance of playing in a Grand Final and a 2.6% chance of winning it.
**Worst teams**
Cronulla, NZ & Manly have all lost their first 2 games 8 times. St George & Penrith 7 times
Cronulla lost their first 3 games 5 times. Gold Coast, NZ, North Queensland all lost 3 times
**Best teams**
Melbourne have lost their first 2 games once in 20 years and have NEVER lost 3 in a row
Wests Tigers and Brisbane have only lost their first 2 games once and their first 3 games once. For both teams it happened in the same year. In 2007 Wests Tigers lost their first 4 games (before finishing 9th!) and in the same year Brisbane lost their first 3 and slipped into the 8.
