Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.
Key numbers with 11 rounds to go:
* 1% chance of minor premiership (-2% from last round)
– Eels are 37% (+5%)
– Panthers are 26% (+5%)
– Storm are 17% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are the only team at 0.00%
* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-8%)
– Eels are 83% (+8%)
– Panthers are 77% (+10%)
– Storm are 65% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 0.2% (-0.1%)
* 43% chance of finishing in top 8 (-9%)
– Eels are 98% (+3%)
– Panthers are 96% (+4%)
– Storm are 92% (+6%)
– Roosters are 86% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (-2%)
* 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (+8%)
– Titans are 48% (-11%)
– Broncos are 48% (-11%)
– Warriors are 47% (+9%)
– Eels are 0.2% (-0.4%)
* 2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+12%)
– Titans are 11% (-6%)
– Broncos are 10% (-8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+9%)
– Panthers are 0.03% (-0.03%)
– Eels are the only team at 0.00%
Great analysis how often are you updating this information?
From my predictions we can make the 8 this season but any losses against the bottom sides cruel our chances.
Think will need 20 points this season to make the 8 on a good for/against and i have us sitting in the 8 with 2 games to go and there against the Storm/Eels.
Wins required against Warriors/Knights/Bulldogs/Rabbits/Manly will make 20 points. Might sound pessimistic that Titans game might still come back to bite us.
I like to play with the ladder predictor on the NRL website. At the moment, if all games are won by the higher team on the ladder, we'll finish 10th on 16 points.
We need to beat the teams around us, the Knights (Rd 13), Manly (Rd 17) and Rabbitohs (Rd 18), plus all the teams below us and that would only get us to 20 points. And if all the other games went with the higher team, we would finish 9th, 1 point behind the Knights on 21.
So we're going to need to play well, plus have a bit of luck fall our way.
It can happen. Please let it happen!
