Russian invasion of Ukraine

[rihannafan1]

Well the most simple is the state ownership of all means of production and distribution, like in China. Are you implying China is not a communist system?

I had done, that's how this whole conversation got started. Then you told me I know nothing about communism, and you actually do seem to really care and know about this stuff, so realistically does it matter what I think?

 

[BZN]

Thanks everyone for you support.
My fears have been confirmed, I have a minor tear of a bicep horn whatever that us and I'm waiting to hear from surgeon to tell me when he is opetating on it. On pain killers again, I'll be back to annoy everone after surgery

G'day @Cobarcats... I'm thinking 🤔 of you Mate.
Please stay safe.... and maybe it's time to put yourself No. 1 🙂 for a change.

 

[sheer64]

Is it all about money?

 

[tig_prmz]

Russia will control with Ukrainian supply 30% of world wheat, 20% of world corn and a third of fertiliser. Not to mention critical semiconductor materials and around 10% of world metals.

They can do some serious damage to us.

Just heard they have put their nuclear forces on high alert after the NATO joint statement.

Things are escalating.

The Russian invasion was wrong, but no more wrong than the American invasion of Iraq and the wholesale bombing and destruction without a mandate there.

Some of the western discourse against Russia and it's leadership is getting extreme and silly like sanctions against the leadership discouraging lines of communication. The idiocy of sanctions which achieve nothing but attempt to humiliate the top Russian generals commanding nuclear deterrent forces can lead complete ruptures of communication with the west raising the risk of miscalculations and poor judgment. You don't talk with people of such power like that, when minnows around the world get away with far worse but have little power to hurt us.

They may even decide to arm with advanced weapons and nuclear capabilities Iran, Syria and others to keep the west busy.

You don't talk to Russia like you do to Iraq. You talk to them like they are America. See American hegemony was a bit of a mirage really anyway because they had no ability to dominate a country like Russia or China or even others but this pushing and probing is going to cause us a lot of problems.
Russia is to blame for this invasion but America is culpable for refusing to negotiate of serious matters of concern with a major rival. Unless of course the can command events which they are unable to do so.

Notice their whipping the press in the west up to jingoism proportions.
This will get existential quickly.

The U.S. must back off a little here.

Yep, sometimes it's not about doing the right thing but more about doing the thing that is most likely to save the lives of innocents. Sanctions and breaking lines of communication isn't likely to deter a dictator like Putin, could only motivate him more. Russia is a superpower with plenty of influence in Europe and rest of the world.

Apart from China, have also noticed India has been sitting on the fence.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Yep, sometimes it's not about doing the right thing but more about doing the thing that is most likely to save the lives of innocents. Sanctions and breaking lines of communication isn't likely to deter a dictator like Putin, could only motivate him more. Russia is a superpower with plenty of influence in Europe and rest of the world.

Apart from China, have also noticed India has been sitting on the fence.

Funny how countries involved in their own territorial disputes aren't backing a horse here.

 

[Tiger5150]

I had done, that's how this whole conversation got started. Then you told me I know nothing about communism, and you actually do seem to really care and know about this stuff, so realistically does it matter what I think?

Genuinely apologise that my post came across that way. I didnt mean it to. Of course it matters what you think, however if you think China is not a communist regime, IMO that is objectively wrong. Dont fall into the trap of confalting capitalism and markets.

 

[Tiger5150]

Yep, sometimes it's not about doing the right thing but more about doing the thing that is most likely to save the lives of innocents. Sanctions and breaking lines of communication isn't likely to deter a dictator like Putin, could only motivate him more. Russia is a superpower with plenty of influence in Europe and rest of the world.

Apart from China, have also noticed India has been sitting on the fence.

So what should the West do? Nothing? What do we say to Estonia, Latvia, Kazhakstan, Hungary? Good luck?

 

[earl]

So what should the West do? Nothing? What do we say to Estonia, Latvia, Kazhakstan, Hungary? Good luck?

This is the point. I asked earlier what do we do ? It's not so easy.

Putin has also warmed up his Nukes.

 

[earl]

Is it all about money?

This is a really good video. The situation is complex but yeah money or maybe more specifically access to resources and markets plays a massive role in why this invasion is occurring.

 

[TillLindemann]

This is the point. I asked earlier what do we do ? It's not so easy.

Putin has also warmed up his Nukes.

There are plenty of options short of war. E.g suspension of all oil and gas trade with Russia. Might cause some momentary difficulty in places like Germany, but in the scheme of things higher gas prices is not really a huge sacrifice.
Sanctions could also be applied to Chinese companies trading with Russia to close that back door.

 

[Magpie_Magic]

There are plenty of options short of war. E.g suspension of all oil and gas trade with Russia. Might cause some momentary difficulty in places like Germany, but in the scheme of things higher gas prices is not really a huge sacrifice.
Sanctions could also be applied to Chinese companies trading with Russia to close that back door.

The Russians may choose to sanction the west from oil gas and food. Just to show them they have tools. They will also move more quickly to develop alternatives for swift and the U.S. dollar with China.

 

[TrueTiger]

Im just having this input for people to think about and why there is so much disruption in Ukraine atm....
Somebody mentioned George Soros in this thread earlier....
He has had a huge influence in Ukraine since 2012,he is the poison of the world he has been kicked out of several countries and the neonazis in Ukraine have done more damage to the people than anything else...(Klauss Swabb ...more poison..read him up)
Biden and several other prominent American politicians have big interests in the Ukraine with several of their offspring employed in high paying jobs there...mainly gas and oil companies...

AND the big one is that Putin hates Soros for what he has done and been involved with worldwide such as funding antifa and blm..Soros also has done things involving Russia apparently and Putin sees what Soros is doing in the Ukraine to the people....

Before anyone wants to call me a Putin supporter,Im just saying look at the bigger picture before taking everything as being true and Putin is a bully etc...

there is so much more to this than any of us really know,Im keeping an open mind...

I saw some footage of air strikes in Ukraine by Russian planes on a USA news cast...
how shocking they said,the poor people in Ukraine...BUT they got fact checked and it turned out that it was footage of the 2020 Russian Air show in Moscow with war sounds dubbed in...
So all Im saying be careful what is said and happening,in my opinion if Putin is harming innocent people which he said he wouldnt,dont count out the neo nazis doing the harm...

 

[Cobarcats]

Hey everyone, I'm completely overwhelmed by the support you guys have showed me and my neighbour. Thankyou so much.
Driving back home in a cab I saw flood damage everywhere.
I'm back home now, I've got a partial rupture of the Distal Bicep from lifting a sandbag, stupid me.
My shoulder is healing from being replaced so the surgeon is not going to operate at the moment, apparently you can live with what looks like a golf ball sticking out of my arm. So it's more ice, sling and slowly slowly with physio.
On a very sad note, my neighbour face timed her sister in Kiev just before they lost signal and basically said good bye to each other. It was confirmed that her mother died in a building collapse and her body was recovered.
Only her sister and brother are joining the fight, sister is a doctor and brother 18yrs old.
Neighbour is resigned to losing them. Her neices and nephews and uncle and aunty have moved to a safer area.
My missus is staying at her place for the week
Grim and very very sad.
The reality is this is going on all over the world.

 

[TrueTiger]

Hey everyone, I'm completely overwhelmed by the support you guys have showed me and my neighbour. Thankyou so much.
Driving back home in a cab I saw flood damage everywhere.
I'm back home now, I've got a partial rupture of the Distal Bicep from lifting a sandbag, stupid me.
My shoulder is healing from being replaced so the surgeon is not going to operate at the moment, apparently you can live with what looks like a golf ball sticking out of my arm. So it's more ice, sling and slowly slowly with physio.
On a very sad note, my neighbour face timed her sister in Kiev just before they lost signal and basically said good bye to each other. It was confirmed that her mother died in a building collapse and her body was recovered.
Only her sister and brother are joining the fight, sister is a doctor and brother 18yrs old.
Neighbour is resigned to losing them. Her neices and nephews and uncle and aunty have moved to a safer area.
My missus is staying at her place for the week
Grim and very very sad.
The reality is this is going on all over the world.

Plenty of rest and ice mate...later on physio will benefit you heaps,but take it easy at first....I displaced my rotator cuff on my right shoulder and couldnt lift it above shoulder height for nearly 12 months...6 months of physio and no golf for 4 years and now back to full strength and happy...it all takes time and patients hang in there and take it easy until it fully heals....

 

[Tiger5150]

The west should have kept up diplomacy before the war. When a superpower wants to talk because rightly or wrongly they fear threatened by NATO encroachment right up to their borders one shouldn't answer with "I don't respect anybody's red lines" as we got from Biden. Can't recall many times in history that one major rival would pursue diplomacy in that way, rare to see it even during wartime, unless of course that's the direction the west wish to take this with uncertain results. Let's face it it's similar in reverse to the Cuban missile crisis and would suspect the US would behave in the same way if they were faced with that strategic situation.

The sanctions are not proportionate in the situation. When the US invaded Iraq illegally they rarely received condemnation. Australia was also illegally involved there imagine if their parliamentarians were sanctioned. Never seen anything more ridiculous. The attempt to almost totally isolate Russia is almost a declaration of war. If you back a major power into a corner like that you may get it. For Russia and many others it also attempts to set a frame that America makes the rules, breaks them and imposes it's own judgements which pertpuates injustices around the world and is a frame Russia and China will chose to challenge. For a long time Russia and China and others have called for more multilateralism. The U.S. seems unwilling so they will go their own way which will permanently raise tensions increasing risks.

So the sanctions in my opinion should not be personal just economic with more space and less demonisation to allow an easier path back to diplomacy.

As for the nations you mentioned they are not under threat as they are in NATO and have not been threatened. The Russian call for NATO to go back to pre 97 borders was probably just hung out there for something to negotiate with apart for the red line issues regarding further new NATO membership. Kazakhstan is a Russia ally.

Cant go with you on this one Magpie Magic.

NATO didnt include Ukraine, when Ukraine begged them. For this very reason. Also cant go with you as you seem to be suggesting Russias invasion of a sovereign country is justified because the US did something wrong on the other side of the world 10 years ago?

Sanctions should be stronger, not weaker or not at all. Sanctions are an alternative to boots on the ground.

 

[Tiger5150]

The Russians may choose to sanction the west from oil gas and food. Just to show them they have tools. They will also move more quickly to develop alternatives for swift and the U.S. dollar with China.

I hope they do, it will end this conflict and Putins reign a lot quicker.

Russia has more land mass than Aus, 5 x the population and about the same GDP. This means every Russian has 1/5th the wealth of your average Aussie. Their GDP per capita has shrunk drastically over the last 5 years. The Ruble is currently half its value from a month ago, 1/3 of what it was 5years ago and 1/5th of what it was 10years ago.

Economically Russia is a failed state. Militarily they remain strong.

It will not take much to start significant unrest at home

 

[InBenjiWeTrust]

We will see. Russia has amassed many reserves and has little debt so they are not a failed state economically.

Remember through history the Russians are a tough breed and relatively a homogenous national identity which makes their power to resist many times more than most of the west. Can't imagine America enduring what they endured in WW2 and winning. Perhaps in the civil war but not since.

Remember too that even Navalny who was supposedly poisoned as an opposition figure because of his links to the west believed that Ukraine should just be part of Russia so whoever is in power it is unlikely to give much joy to the west.

It's obvious now as this is unraveling that the west is seizing on this in a massive attempt to destabilize Russia and overthrow Putin lest it diminishes Russia's superpower standing so they can concentrate on China. It could go either way or the wrong way.

For Russia Ukraine is their front fence. For the US Ukraine is their took shed.

The bill will be paid by the Ukrainians sadly.

Cannot argue with the above, however, remember that (than) USSR attacked, or how they claimed at the time, "were invited" by "brotherly Afghanistan regime".
After a quick and convincing win of a conventional war, the 2nd phase - guerrilla war started. One can argue that then the USSR government had even more support (read control) over their people and they were more powerful.
And we all know that after their casualties rose, even Brezhnev's hard core government had to give up, and withdraw - another casualty of the asymmetrical war.

 

[stryker 69]

Im just having this input for people to think about and why there is so much disruption in Ukraine atm....
Somebody mentioned George Soros in this thread earlier....
He has had a huge influence in Ukraine since 2012,he is the poison of the world he has been kicked out of several countries and the neonazis in Ukraine have done more damage to the people than anything else...(Klauss Swabb ...more poison..read him up)
Biden and several other prominent American politicians have big interests in the Ukraine with several of their offspring employed in high paying jobs there...mainly gas and oil companies...

AND the big one is that Putin hates Soros for what he has done and been involved with worldwide such as funding antifa and blm..Soros also has done things involving Russia apparently and Putin sees what Soros is doing in the Ukraine to the people....

Before anyone wants to call me a Putin supporter,Im just saying look at the bigger picture before taking everything as being true and Putin is a bully etc...

there is so much more to this than any of us really know,Im keeping an open mind...

I saw some footage of air strikes in Ukraine by Russian planes on a USA news cast...
how shocking they said,the poor people in Ukraine...BUT they got fact checked and it turned out that it was footage of the 2020 Russian Air show in Moscow with war sounds dubbed in...
So all Im saying be careful what is said and happening,in my opinion if Putin is harming innocent people which he said he wouldnt,dont count out the neo nazis doing the harm...

I’d suspect there is a reasonable amount of accuracy within this post.
Nothing is ever as simple as is presented to us through ‘news’ networks.

 

[Tiger5150]

We will see. Russia has amassed many reserves and has little debt so they are not a failed state economically.

They do have significant reserves (Approx $630B) but it would be interesting to know where that is (onshore/offshore) because if you cant get it, you cant get it.

If the US & EU turned of the tap (or if Russia did) it would cost Russia around $140B a year. Coupled with the other sanctions, massive defence spending and lack of access to foreign capital, those reserves wouldnt last long.

Remember too that even Navalny who was supposedly poisoned as an opposition figure because of his links to the west believed that Ukraine should just be part of Russia so whoever is in power it is unlikely to give much joy to the west.

This is the whole point. I agree with this. Trouble is that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc all have large russian minorities. The reason that Putin gave for invading Ukraine applies to all of these countries.

It's obvious now as this is unraveling that the west is seizing on this in a massive attempt to destabilize Russia and overthrow Putin lest it diminishes Russia's superpower standing so they can concentrate on China. It could go either way or the wrong way.

Not obvious at all. It was less than a year ago that Biden canned the Keystone XL pipeline in the US and removed sanctions of the Nordstream pipeline Russia to German. Hardly the actions of the West trying to destabilise Russia.

For Russia Ukraine is their front fence. For the US Ukraine is their tool shed.

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, all now have Russia at their back fence and historically it has never turned out well for them.

The bill will be paid by the Ukrainians sadly.

So you have made a detailed explanation of why you think military action and sanctions are a bad idea. You have let to explain what should happen? Welcome parades and red carpets?