2026 NRL Draw

[jadtiger]

Fellow Forum Members I have dusted off the abacus and have 'attempted' to calculate the probability that one team can be given a first round bye twice in a 3 year period in a 17 team competition based on random selection. Here is the result:

The probability that a given team is awarded a first round bye in two of three consecutive years is (48⁄4913), or about 0.980 %.

---

In any one year only one of the 17 teams receives the first round bye, so the chance that a particular team gets it is (1⁄17).

P=1/17

Across three independent years, the number of first round byes a given team gets follows a binomial distribution;

X Bin(3, \(1⁄17)\).

We want P(X=2)


P(X=2)=(3/2)(1/17)2(1−1/17)

Compute the value.

P(X=2)=3⋅1/289⋅16/17=48/4913≈0.0098

Therefore according to this probability calculation the chances of a team being awarded a first round bye twice out of three consecutive years in a 17 team competition on a random basis is 0.0098, or less than 1%.
As always I accept NO responsibility should this arithmetic be proven wrong.

Only time we have ever "won" the NRL lottery,needless to say it is one that you try to avoid.

 

[Tom Shines]

Just heard Bryan Fletcher telling us on SEN to “suck it up” and that somebody has to get the bye …

I also see that Victor Ridley got to count the test matches in his suspension effectively reducing it from 10 NRL matches to 5 … must be nice to support a team where things always bounce your way,,,, everything is coming up Milhouse for the Roosters …again

 

[vlad]

Is this a power play by the nrl to make the tigers go to Vegas in 2027 ?

Otherwise it’s bye in rd 1 again !

Btw after rd 1 next year only 5 teams won’t have been to Vegas

Tigers
Eels
Storm
Tits
Fins

 

[Tim Sheens]

Correct
Rd 1
Rd 13
Rd 26

Wow, that looks rather unfair break wise.

 

[gallagher]

Is this a power play by the nrl to make the tigers go to Vegas in 2027 ?

Otherwise it’s bye in rd 1 again !

Btw after rd 1 next year only 5 teams won’t have been to Vegas

Tigers
Eels
Storm
Tits
Fins

Perth will be available in 27 too . If we don't want to go then it wouldn't worry the NRL.

 

[tigahhh]

Just heard Bryan Fletcher telling us on SEN to “suck it up” and that somebody has to get the bye …

I also see that Victor Ridley got to count the test matches in his suspension effectively reducing it from 10 NRL matches to 5 … must be nice to support a team where things always bounce your way,,,, everything is coming up Milhouse for the Roosters …again

yes somebody has to get it but somebody does not need to get it twice in 3 years god he’s a goofball

 

[watersider]

Number of times teams have had round 1 bye:

Wests Tigers: 2
Rest of the NRL(16 other teams): 2

Good to see us absolutely dominating the entire NRL in a stat. We get an opening round bye 50% of the time.

 

[hank37w]

There seems to be a trend that the weaker clubs get the first round bye. Yet to see the Storm, Panthers or Broncos get it. And likely never will.

Gee, you're being a bit harsh on the Storm, you only have to go back to 2004 to see that the poor buggers had a round 1 bye. 🤣

 

[Tucker]

Further evidence that the Wests Tigers exist only to make up the numbers in the comp… the club is given no consideration in regards to any measure of fairness …

Only one way to change perceptions like this.

 

[hank37w]

Fellow Forum Members I have dusted off the abacus and have 'attempted' to calculate the probability that one team can be given a first round bye twice in a 3 year period in a 17 team competition based on random selection. Here is the result:

The probability that a given team is awarded a first round bye in two of three consecutive years is (48⁄4913), or about 0.980 %.

---

In any one year only one of the 17 teams receives the first round bye, so the chance that a particular team gets it is (1⁄17).

P=1/17

Across three independent years, the number of first round byes a given team gets follows a binomial distribution;

X Bin(3, \(1⁄17)\).

We want P(X=2)


P(X=2)=(3/2)(1/17)2(1−1/17)

Compute the value.

P(X=2)=3⋅1/289⋅16/17=48/4913≈0.0098

Therefore according to this probability calculation the chances of a team being awarded a first round bye twice out of three consecutive years in a 17 team competition on a random basis is 0.0098, or less than 1%.
As always I accept NO responsibility should this arithmetic be proven wrong.

Looks good to me, your figures and calculations are incredible.

Maybe you can save @Juro a lot of time and effort and produce the Juro Curve for the next 12 months during the off season. 👍

 

[hank37w]

Champion @Rowdy12, where did he say that?

It was the voice in his head. 🤣

 

[hsvjones]

The NRL cannot sit there with a straight face and say it is a fair comp and no bias is used.
How hard is it to put another team to get the 1st round bye as there are 15 other teams to pick from (excluding Titans as they had it this year)

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Perth will be available in 27 too . If we don't want to go then it wouldn't worry the NRL.

Very much doubt they will send Perth to Vegas for their inaugural match.

 

[Big Red]

I'm a realist. I was actually quite optimistic last season with the recruitment and preseason camp etc. but it seems very little changed. I am not accepting mediocrity

Mate, the reality is you’re a fan on a fan forum. What you accept or don’t accept doesn’t influence the outcome at all.

 

[gallagher]

Very much doubt they will send Perth to Vegas for their inaugural match.

True, they'll provably play at North Sydney oval

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Just heard Bryan Fletcher telling us on SEN to “suck it up” and that somebody has to get the bye …

I also see that Victor Ridley got to count the test matches in his suspension effectively reducing it from 10 NRL matches to 5 … must be nice to support a team where things always bounce your way,,,, everything is coming up Milhouse for the Roosters …again

if brains were dynamite poor Fletcher wouldn't have enough to blow up his ears

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

True, they'll provably play at North Sydney oval

good on the Bears if they do play a game.or 2 at north sydney

 

[lathami]

Wow, that looks rather unfair break wise.

Yes it is, surprise, surprise!

 

[lathami]

if brains were dynamite poor Fletcher wouldn't have enough to blow up his ears

Can somebody bring up who has got the bye in the first round for the last 10 years?

 

[Tiger Woods]

At least we'll be sitting comfortably in the top 8 in rd1 injury free watching all other teams belt each other while preparing for rd2
😁