Hi Team,
I have been away with a combination of work and holdiays but am back on deck. So I thiught it was a good time to look at what has happened over the last five weeks and see if we are in a position to fix it. I have tried to stick to hard data - but I'm naturally a glass half full type of bloke, so you will have to forgive me if that flows through into the analysis.
2026 Deep Dive 6. The Depth Reality: Moving Past Media Myths to Fix the Slump
The aim of this deep dive is to determine why our Wests Tigers have suffered a string of heavy losses over the last five weeks. It will look past the media stories about the future roster and focus on determining the root causes of the performance slump. Additionally, it will focus on the round 15 team selection; crucially, it will look at how we navigate the short-term loss of Api and if we can still chalk up some wins with Latu stepping into the hooker role. Finally we will focus on the second half of the draw and examine how Benji can get the season back on track, or determine if it is an insurmountable hurdle.
Methodology
- Match and Score Review; an examination of the scorelines, errors, and positions from the last five rounds.
- Roster and Injury Assessment; a look at the casualty ward and the Round 15 team sheet to see how the line-up changes affect our stability.
- Tactical and Draw Analysis; assess the short term tactical shift at hooker, map the upcoming schedule and evaluate how to establish a foundation in order to climb out of the rut.
The Five-Week Reality Check
We started the season on fire and sat comfortably near the top of the ladder. However, the last five weeks have been very tough, culminating in the embarrassing 68-0 loss to the Riff last week. That match clearly demonstrates how bad things get when a young side gets physically tired and stops executing the basics.
Here is how the last five games looked:
| Round | Opponent | Result | Reality |
| 9 | Sharks | Lost 52-10 | Played right after the big Luai news; simple mistakes ruined the second half – primarily individual errors from inexperience. |
| 10 | Storm | Lost 44-16 | Beaten by an out of form team. Our players out of position to cover injuries. |
| 11 | Sea Eagles | Lost 46-18 | Let in soft tries; young players visibly exhausted? |
| 13 | Bulldogs | Won 22-16 | A tough, high-effort, win that showed heart and pride. |
| 14 | Panthers | Lost 68-0 | A complete defensive collapse (referee inspired?) and no comeback. Completely outclassed and demoralised |
The Root Cause
The media story is that the team dropped off because Luai signed with the PNG Chiefs for 2028. That is a myth. Luai is locked in with us for the next 18 months and is trying his best. One playmaker cannot win games when the rest of the squad is broken.
The issues are much deeper:
- A Full Casualty Ward: We have lost the core of our starting side with the slide starting with the loss of AD, and Taylan May in round 9 and it has been a revolving door since. The suspension to Api and further injuries to Makasini, Bula, Twal and Hunt have exacerbated the issue.
- Playing Out of Position: Because our depth is so shallow, Benji has had to put young kids into FG with limited exposure and experience. Not just individuals who can be covered but complete combinations. This stresses the game plan and causes heavy fatigue due to poor ball control, fundamental errors and poor defensive reads.
The Round 15 Reset: Can we survive without Api
Benji has swung the axe for the Titans game at the 8th. With Api away on State of Origin duty, he has reshaped the squad:
- The Back Five: Taylan May makes a crucial return from injury at centre. This moves Tito back to his preferred wing spot and Makasini shifts to the other wing with To’a taking his place in the centres. Provided To’a has his head in the game, this is significant improvement on both sides of the pill for our outside backs. Bula will have more options in attack and our defensive line is more experienced and settled.
- Piggies: Sione Fainu starts at lock, and Sukkar gets the nod on the edge in an effort to hold the middle and stiffen the edge. We lack the attacking flair of Samuela on the edge but Sukkar in defence is capable, although is likely to be targeted by Campbell and Kini.
The biggest change is Latu Fainu getting the nod to start at hooker. Replacing Api is arguably the hardest job in the team; he controls the speed of our attack and defence and get the forward on a roll. Hope, as a specialist hooker, has not been up able to fill the void. Can a 19 year old half cut it?
Latu will have a mountain of work to do in defence and he has played limited minutes so far this year. While a good defender he is going to be targeted in an effort to tire him early and affect his service. Replacing him with Hope, except for short stints, will be our Achilles Heel.
The silver lining is that Latu is a natural talent with great footwork. While he does not have Api’s experience; he knows how to read the play from his experience as a half. His youthful energy also has the potential to provide spark around the ruck. If Benji takes an unconventional approach he has the ability to partner Latu with Luai and Madden in attack to create an unpredictable, fast-moving playmaker group. With his brother Sione Fainu in the mix up the middle we could unlock something special and bring the backyard into first grade.
A Path to Recovery
The draw gives us a realistic chance to steady the ship. We do not need to beat top-four sides right now; we just need to survive and gather competition points.
Looking at the next four weeks:
- Round 15 vs. Gold Coast Titans (Leichhardt Oval): A must-win home game against a struggling side.
- Round 16 vs. Dolphins (Campbelltown Stadium): Another crucial home match. On current form we will be outclassed. But, touch wood, we will have Api back and a home crowd behind us so a win is not off the cards.
- Round 17 vs. Newcastle Knights (Away): A tough road trip, and potentially a loss. The game is winnable if our discipline holds and we get the rub of the green.
- Round 18 vs. St. George Illawarra Dragons (Away): The final stretch before most of our injured players return. On form we should come awy with the points.
We need to be two from four at the end of this period in order to set us up for the run home. If we can remain injury free; we face three top four sides in the run home. Five from eight will have us knocking on the door of the eight with our points differential being the biggest weakness for us.
The quest for the first finals birth in over a decade and a half is not lost yet; but the footy gods will need to smile on us a little. With players starting to return we may just be at full strength when we need to be.
Illuminating the Way Ahead
Our lack of depth has been thoroughly exposed, but it is not an insurmountable hurdle. It is definitely an area that needs to be addressed for 2027. Looking closely at the Round 15 changes, and the draw ahead, there is a path out of the darkness. It is a little misty at the moment but will become clearer as we overcome the injury toll.
The way forward requires a shift in mentality:
- Simplify the game for round 15. With a teenage rookie at hooker and Api out, we need to focus on fundamentals over playing flashy footy until we have established a foundation. Completing at over 85%, Latu hitting the forwards flat and Jerome and Jock kicking deep and playing for territory. We need to let the Titans make the errors and capitalise on them.
- Week to week footy. These next four weeks are about survival. We can’t afford to focus on who returns when. We have to focus on rebuilding our confidence; the foundation to crawling out of the rut. If we can dig deep and win our two upcoming home games, we will hold our spot on the ladder and have the potential to finish strong. By the time we face the Dragons in Round 18, the casualty ward should be clear and a charge toward the finals can begin in earnest.
The big questions for this week:
- How many minutes can Latu realistically play at hooker before fatigue becomes an issue?
- Can Hope bridge that gap or is there a better answer?
