Tigers Deep Dive of the Week

[Buttface]

We need to get these backs some forward power, a run on prop and lock or these gun backs we have will be playing off the back foot. I’d be prepared to give Doobs a crack at lock but I’m not banking on him.

 

[weststigers]

PART 3​

The High-Leverage Defensive Exposure​

This brings us to the real problem, and it's the exact reason why the forum debates get so heated. Standard match stats credit Doueihi with a low missed-tackle count at halfback at 1.8 per game. On paper, that looks mathematically sound against the competition halfback median of 2.5 missed tackles.

But raw tackle volumes completely lie because they ignore spatial context. Standard tracking treats a missed tackle on the opposition's 40-metre line exactly the same as a missed tackle on our own goal line and a rush out of the line does not get recorded. To see where the line is actually fracturing, we have to look at Try Causes and Line Break Causes, which track direct culpability for defensive failures.

While Doueihi doesn't miss a high volume of tackles, his misses create opposition points. Conceding 1.3 line breaks and 0.8 try causes per game at halfback is a massive issue. It means when he does make an error or makes a poor read, it is catastrophic. His heavy frame is clearly struggling to make the rapid lateral adjustments required to defend as an agile edge half.

We saw this play out in real time over our recent three-match window against the Knights, Dragons, and Warriors, where our poor defensive efforts were only exceeded by our inability to create points.

Round 17 vs. Newcastle Knights (Lost 12-6): Doueihi let in 1 Try and allowed 1 Line Break; Luai had 1 Line Break Cause. A low missed-tackle baseline hid critical edge deficiencies.

Round 18 vs. St. George Illawarra Dragons (Lost 24-10): Doueihi let in 1 Try and allowed 2 Line Breaks, while Madden (playing the 7 role) let in 1 Try and allowed a Line Break. Madden kicked well (358m), but both playmakers bit on fatal, panic-driven defensive jams.

Round 19 vs. New Zealand Warriors (Lost 32-6): Doueihi let in 2 Tries and caused 2 Line Breaks; Luai also leaked 2 Tres and allowed 3 Line Breaks. This was a total defensive system collapse. While Doueihi gained 141.0 run metres, his 2 Try Causes and the allowed Line Breaks were the result of extremely poor defensive execution.

Tactical Solution: Moving AD to Lock (13)​

So, how do we fix the leak on the edge without losing our best yardage asset? Benji has to seriously consider transitioning AD permanently to Lock (13). Shifting Doueihi into the middle leverages his physical attributes while insulating his defensive weaknesses:

Neutralising the Lateral Edge Deficit: On the edge, halves are forced to jockey, slide, and make rapid tracking reads against agile outside backs. Moving Doueihi to 13 repositions him into the high-volume middle channel. In and around the ruck, defence relies on front-on contact, wrestling, and filling space. Doueihi's physical build and solid base would allow him to survive in a central defensive system where lateral movement is minimised.

Weaponising His Attack: At lock, Doueihi’s 135 run metres per game would become a powerful asset in the forward rotation. Taking hit-ups through the middle of the field would ease the burden on our starting prop rotation and generate the quick play-the-balls necessary to unlock our spine and could release Twal into the middle rotation as a benefit.

Introducing a Three-Pillar Ball-Playing Model: Moving to the 13 jersey wouldn't kill his creative efforts. A ball-playing 13 acts as a link, playing before the line and engaging middle defenders. This opens up the field, freeing up Luai and Latu to attack compressed defensive edges with our outside backs.

Tactical Timing: Pull the Trigger Now or Wait?​

The critical question facing Benji Marshall is whether to transition AD to lock and elevate Latu Fainu to the halves immediately, or wait until the off-season. Given that the team has scored a meager total of just 22 points across the last three weeks, our current offensive strategy has clearly stalled. When you pair that lack of points with our current defensive fragility, evidenced by the halves conceding nine combined line break causes in those same 240 minutes, maintaining the status quo is no longer viable.

While some may argue for a patient off-season reset, making this change right now provides an immediate tactical spark. Rather than writing off the remaining rounds, altering the spine dynamic immediately serves a dual purpose: it offers a high-leverage circuit breaker that could mathematically ignite a late, desperate run to the finals, and it gives the coaching staff real-match data to stress-test this combination under genuine pressure ahead of next year.

Conclusion​

Stripping away personal bias and examining the hard tracking data reveals that our halves configuration is caught in a strategic trap. Adam Doueihi’s elite individual carrying metrics (+114.3% run metres at halfback) are undeniable, but they are completely offset by his defensive fragility (+166.7% try causes) and a major long-kicking deficit.

While throwing Latu Fainu into the mix doesn't instantly solve that long-kicking void, it forces a necessary shift: Jarome Luai must step up and take absolute ownership of the general kicking game. Transitioning Doueihi permanently to lock leverages his physical power through the middle third while masking his lateral defensive frailties on the edge. It also provides a third kicking option.

By introducing this ball-playing middle model alongside Luai and Fainu immediately, we can address our current point-scoring drought and defensive fragility. This data-backed adjustment offers the most logical pathway to salvage the current season and establish long-term structural stability.

Where are you finding the try causes stat? Which website?

 

[Chunk]

Love your analysis of everything however I can't see how shifting Doueihi into the middle is the answer, opposition middles would be licking their lips at the prospect of having a bloke that won't tackle in the middle. Doesn't have the motor to be a middle either so even if he could handle the washing machine of the middle defence it would nullify his running game. I get where you're coming from, I used to think he'd make a great modern day lock but the more I see of him the less I think he's suited to that. It's a bloody conundrum I know that much. Cheers

Yeah, I tend to agree. Like you said does he have the motor along with the size, power and toughness to handle the middle.

I was watching Ruben Cotter play at first receiver and did a fair job, so I wonder if it’s that hard or important a position for a highly skilled player like AD. You don’t always have to dig into the line and throw a great ball but just get it to your second receiver.

The defensive aspect of a good 13 like Cotter and others is just too important.

However, AD may have it in him, he hasn’t been given the opportunity.

 

[Jolls]

Where are you finding the try causes stat? Which website?

Hi WT,

I grabbed the standard stuff run metres and tackles etc directly from the NRL.com stats. I couldn't find the Try Causes and Line Break Causes at first. From my understanding they are produced by Fox Sports Labs and distributed by Stats Perform (I think that is correct). Anyway the expanded set of data is behind a paywall.

I asked Google's AI to figure out a way to get to the data I was chasing. It walked me though me how to get into the backend network data on NRL.com and I followed the bouncing ball from there. I have been back digging and the files are either no longer there or have been hidden from public view.

From what I understand this is the same data that the media and clubs purchase. The Rugby League Eye Test also has data but it is less timely. I'm not sure if the he does the analysis himself or if he has a commercial subscription. Someone with hacking skills can probably get to the match data which is where I found the additional stats.

 

[weststigers]

Hi WT,

I grabbed the standard stuff run metres and tackles etc directly from the NRL.com stats. I couldn't find the Try Causes and Line Break Causes at first. From my understanding they are produced by Fox Sports Labs and distributed by Stats Perform (I think that is correct). Anyway the expanded set of data is behind a paywall.

I asked Google's AI to figure out a way to get to the data I was chasing. It walked me though me how to get into the backend network data on NRL.com and I followed the bouncing ball from there. I have been back digging and the files are either no longer there or have been hidden from public view.

From what I understand this is the same data that the media and clubs purchase. The Rugby League Eye Test also has data but it is less timely. I'm not sure if the he does the analysis himself or if he has a commercial subscription. Someone with hacking skills can probably get to the match data which is where I found the additional stats.

Thanks mate. Looks like it's still there on fox sports labs.

 

[orange&black]

I agree 100%, and I expect Benji is in a similar predicament. My gut feel is that Benji knows that he is a weakness at centre and he had an out of the box plan to use his size at half as an advantage. While it was successful early his lack of passing threat means that without an edge/centre combination that pose a threat he can be readily contained - and everyone has figured out how to do it. Having not built up the reps as a 13 Benji may well be worried about shifting there this year (and maybe next).

I think we can fit him into the side at 13 and break out of the systems that drive many teams; similar to how Penrith/Cronulla developed the ball playing 13 into an artform. I like where they took that and I think we could take that basis and make AD a different type of threat. Apart from playing as a link he can sweep or, if used in tandem with a Twal to start, play with a fullback (AD/Bula) on each side. He is certainly big enough to have a crack at the middle. If we use him slightly different to Twal - he could really break the middle open.

The old X/Y play is certainly out of fashion; but with a player with AD's size and May/Pole having a bit of footwork at the line it could be devastating in the red zone; and I would love to see us rehash the Lockwood Pringle up the middle! There are certainly options in attack.

I'm not that concerned in defence as I think ADs two issues are: decison making and lateral movement. In the middle there aren't many decisions to make - you belt the guy in your lane! AD's problem, if anything, will be heart not physicality.

I like your ‘outside the box’ thinking around our attack. Something I’ve been advocating since last season with regards to playing our multiple halves together - having 3 ball players or potential first receivers. Trying to make us a little less predictable with options on both sides as well as up the middle. We need to be pushing up in waves instead of the one out crap and the inevitable bomb.
My only other hesitation on AD defending in the middle is his absolute refusal (even more so now after injury) to use his shoulders to drive into a tackle!!