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Yes. My model generates results for all remaining games in the season, so it does take into account who plays whom.

Wins are so important, and big wins give us even more of a chance. We're now up to 56%, some 21% above our average chance with 10 rounds to go. The last time we were in such good shape at this stage of the season was in 2014. ![alt...

Brooks had just finished a bog ordinary performance. He was probably still beating himself up over it. Hard to move on sometimes when things aren't going your way. Doesn't mean it will always be like this.

Wasn't there another one in recent years where we were penalised in golden point, for markers not square when the broncos player moved off the mark?

Looking through the stats, of all of our 21 losses to the Broncos, we've had a lot of close ones. The tally of margins is: 1 point - 1 2 points - 3 4 points - 2 7-12 points - 3 13+ points - 12 If we'd been able to convert a few more of those close ones, that 23% win percentage might have been...

I remember some real heart-breaking losses too. 2014 at Campbelltown comes to mind. It was my son's birthday and we were in the honour guard out on the field at the start of the game, waving the team on. It was almost perfect day for him, with a game that was a real arm wrestle, but then we fell...

Of course we drew with them in our debut game in 2000. That was an amazing effort. But for some reason my mind keeps going back to the bloody baby broncos this week. Please, not again!!!

Double or nothing?

Reminds me of Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School. What's a bath without bubbles... Come here, Bubbles!

Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.  Key numbers with 11 rounds to go: * 1% chance of minor...

Like I don't already have one...

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I've edited the graph now.

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here. As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are...

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

You'd probably be looking at another jump of more than 10%, but this would also depend on the results of other games.

One of these days the curve will go the right way... Surely... Please?

All games are a toss of the coin, 50% win/lose scenario, with a random adjustment to the for and against. It takes into account the games already played, then simulates the rest of the season. I've tried in the past to take account of team strengths and home ground advantage, but it didn't...

Time to talk about the curve again. No, not the COVID Curve, the J Curve! And I wonder how many waves we will get this year... So far, we have done our usual trick, win-lose-win-lose and the curve has bobbled about in the middle. With only 20 rounds this year, the value of each game is higher...

Didn't he come back to give us more depth, not with the assumption of playing every game? We still need him here until we can build more depth in our halves.

I thought it was a great effort last night, but we must remember that there were a few tries which came directly from Bulldogs errors. 1. Grant's try off Bulldogs failing to clean up the kick 2. Talau's try off Bulldogs dropped bomb 3. Nofo's try off intercept If the Bulldogs had played...