@ said:
You’re going back too far in your analysis in my opinion. The game has changed significantly in the last 10 years, let alone the last 20 years. The biggest change that has further shifted the balance of power to a few clubs is the introduction of TPAs. The teams that have access to loads of them are the powerhouses, those that don’t are the battlers. Souths would be #4 in that category behind the 3 clubs discussed. In the 7 season since 2012, Souths have made the playoffs 5 times, 4 of those in the top 4\. I don’t need to remind you of the tigers record of that same period. Powerhouse or not, there is a BIG difference in the clout of the Rabbitohs and the Tigers
I'll start by saying we don't know much at all about the value and assignment of TPAs and most of what people like to suggest about TPAs is pure speculation.
NRL did release some figures this year. You claim Souths would be #4 in TPAs behind the 3 clubs I mentioned and you'd be wrong, because Roosters aren't in the Top 3 TPA clubs according to NRL.
https://www.nrl.com/news/2018/08/30/retirement-of-slater-and-thaiday-set-to-see-big-drop-in-value-of-tpas/
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-data-suggests-salary-cap-isnt-distorted-by-thirdparty-agreements-20180219-h0wayc.html
Melbourne had the highest value of private sector TPAs, totalling $788,000 last season.
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Brisbane and Penrith had $550,000 each, while only one other club totalled more than $300,000 and six clubs were below $100,000 in private sector TPAs.
Souths may indeed be #4, in which case you are trying to convince me that Souths have more TPAs registered than Roosters.
And if Souths don't have more TPAs than Roosters, then Souths can only have somewhere between $100-300K as per the article. NRL state that Storm (well not Storm really - Smith and Slater) pull $800K TPAs, Broncos and Panthers a bit over $500K, TEAM X has somewhere over $300K, 10 teams have $100-300K and 6 teams have < $100K.
Maybe I did go back too far in my analysis, but TPAs were introduced in 2006\. So let's look at Souths since 2006 - 1 premiership, 1 wooden spoon, Top 4 3 other times, 7th twice, 6 other seasons without finals. So they make the finals 7/13 = 54% or just over half the seasons.
But don't get me wrong, Souths are definitely traveling better than Tigers. But that's a comparison few clubs struggle with. 2019 will be a real test for Souths because, as I noted, they are very strong chance of losing their Dally M Coach of the Year and they arguably need to improve on the Top 4 finish they achieved in 2018, otherwise they risk slipping back with an aging roster - Inglis is 31, Burgess 29, Reynolds 28, Sutton 33, Cody Walker 28\. Even Cookie is 27\. Crichton is gone.
I personally think Souths have under-achieved over the last 10 years. They absolutely failed to capitalise on their premiership, almost as badly as Tigers did. Sure they have a big-name owner, but who is the last superstar Rusty Crowe talked into joining the Souths side? The Inglis and Burgess signings were 9 years ago. They let go the current Australian 5/8th and Clive Churchill medalist.