2026 NRL Draw

[Tom Shines]

Cowboys and Titans are becoming yearly Leichhardt Oval fixtures now ….at least no one can complain anymore about Leichhardt getting all the good teams 😂

 

[GNR4LIFE]

That round 7-14 stretch is brutal... Brisbane, Canberra, Cronulla, Melbourne, Manly, BYE, Dogs then Penrith. Could really make or break our season.

We don’t need to be playing top teams to break our season with a string of losses.

 

[hammertime]

It’s not the job of our media team to tell a lame story that’s about as funny as an earthquake either, particularly the minute the draw drops and some people ( like me) are trying to see it for the first time

It's due to the economics of the internet. Duration of impressions matters. They'll try to milk a major event like this. It increases our metrics, which in turn, allows us to sell ad content at a higher price. So this is exactly their job.

Plus, last years video I thought was excellent. I agree this one wasn't as good.

 

[Tom Shines]

It's due to the economics of the internet. Duration of impressions matters. They'll try to milk a major event like this. It increases our metrics, which in turn, allows us to sell ad content at a higher price. So this is exactly their job.

Plus, last years video I thought was excellent. I agree this one wasn't as good.

Ok … fair enough ..I’ll put it down to some frustration on my part as I was very keen to see the whole draw ….i also saw the Dragons one first on my feed which was just a simple one slide… so I guess they weren’t doing their job

 

[hybrid_tiger]

Nothing much to complain about. Far better than this year IMO.

The hardest stretch is round 7-10.

So we MUST get 3-4 wins in the first 6 rounds at bare minimum.

 

[upthetigers]

Fellow Forum Members I have dusted off the abacus and have 'attempted' to calculate the probability that one team can be given a first round bye twice in a 3 year period in a 17 team competition based on random selection. Here is the result:

The probability that a given team is awarded a first round bye in two of three consecutive years is (48⁄4913), or about 0.980 %.

---

In any one year only one of the 17 teams receives the first round bye, so the chance that a particular team gets it is (1⁄17).

P=1/17

Across three independent years, the number of first round byes a given team gets follows a binomial distribution;

X Bin(3, \(1⁄17)\).

We want P(X=2)


P(X=2)=(3/2)(1/17)2(1−1/17)

Compute the value.

P(X=2)=3⋅1/289⋅16/17=48/4913≈0.0098

Therefore according to this probability calculation the chances of a team being awarded a first round bye twice out of three consecutive years in a 17 team competition on a random basis is 0.0098, or less than 1%.
As always I accept NO responsibility should this arithmetic be proven wrong.

The NRL takes us for mugs mate

 

[innsaneink]

A bit hard on the peepers

 

[innsaneink]

I think round 2.will be.chokkas

 

[Kelce68]

This is an AI analysis. Take it with a grain of salt, but does help to give a snapshot.

Rank	Team	Games vs 2025 Top 8	Draw Assessment
1	New Zealand Warriors	10	Softest overall: Minimal top-8 doubles, strong home slate early (vs Roosters, Storm); limited travel post-Origin; soft run-home aids bounce from 6th in 2025.
2	Cronulla Sharks	10	Very soft: Doubles mostly vs non-finalists (e.g., Rabbitohs, Dolphins); easy finish (only 2 top-8 in last 8); home advantages vs tough foes.
3	Manly Sea Eagles	10	Soft: Well-timed byes; Perth "home" vs Storm; minimal top-8 overload, helping climb from 10th.
4	North Queensland Cowboys	11	Soft-moderate: Home-heavy vs Broncos/Storm; Queensland derbies boost; could improve from 12th with early winnables.
5	Canterbury Bulldogs	11	Moderate: Bye after Vegas aids recovery; mostly Sydney games post-Magic; balanced for 3rd-placers.
6	Parramatta Eels	11	Moderate boost: Tough start but soft run-home (mostly non-top-8); 13 homes at CommBank; limited travel suits rebuild from 11th.
7	Gold Coast Titans	11	Moderate: Strong Queensland start (homes vs Sharks, Dolphins, etc.); 6/8 homes in run-home; only 2 top-8 late.
8	Canberra Raiders	11	Moderate: As premiers, peer matchups but strong home vs Sharks/Storm; balanced travel.
9	Newcastle Knights	11	Moderate: Vegas opener adds hype but travel; mixed mid-season vs top-8; bottom-17th needs early wins.
10	St George Illawarra Dragons	12	Moderate-hard: Winnable early (vs Bulldogs); but doubles vs top-8 like Warriors; travel to Vegas.
11	Wests Tigers	12	Moderate-hard: Round 1 bye hurts momentum; brutal Rounds 7-14 (6 top-8, including prelim finalists); need early points for 13th-placers.
12	Brisbane Broncos	12	Hard: Loaded rivals early/late (Storm/Panthers doubles); but 12 Suncorp homes soften for 4th-placers.
13	Dolphins	12	Hard: Heavy top-8 (Storm/Panthers doubles); Darwin "home" adds quirk; from 9th, tests depth.
14	Sydney Roosters	12	Hard: Tough start (0-3 risk); mid-season away gauntlet; no bye in final 9 games pre-finals strains 8th-placers.
15	Melbourne Storm	13	Very hard: Brutal run-home (5 top-8 in last 7, only 2 homes); early tests; Perth game; challenges runners-up.
16	Penrith Panthers	13	Extremely hard: Horror start (5 top-8 in first 6, limited homes); tough finish (6 top-8 in last 8); 8 straight games late; rebuild from 7th hit hard.
17	South Sydney Rabbitohs	14	Hardest: Overloaded top-8 (e.g., Storm/Roosters doubles); minimal travel helps, but opponent strength buries 14th-placers; soft spots wasted if form dips.

 

[user118245]

when do tickets go on sale?

 

[upthetigers]

A bit hard on the peepers

View attachment 29702

Couldn't ask for an easier start but if our halfback is Jock I don't know how many we win

The club keeps you out of the loop so one can only speculate

 

[LeichhardtTiger]

Just did my Bailey's Ladder predictor and I have us winning between 12-18 games. 12 gets us to 30 points with the 3 BYES. On the cusp of the 8. Anything better than 12 wins and we will make the 8, unless we don't.

SOO impact

27 May - BYE prior so no impact in lead up but we play Dogs 3 days later, so maybe resting Crichton Preston
17 June - We play Titans on 14/6 so maybe some missing. Then we play Dolphins 3 days later so they might rest some.
8 July - Drags prior so unlikely they miss any players - then Warriors 2 days later - no SOO reps AI at work on this one!

 

[Dr_Ice]

During Origin period, when players are missing if selected we have;
Bye before SOO 1
Titans before SOO 2 - Tino at least
Dragons before SOO 3

 

[Dr_Ice]

Just did my Bailey's Ladder predictor and I have us winning between 12-18 games. 12 gets us to 30 points with the 3 BYES. On the cusp of the 8. Anything better than 12 wins and we will make the 8, unless we don't.

SOO impact

27 May - BYE prior so no impact in lead up but we play Dogs 3 days later, so maybe resting Crichton Preston
17 June - We play Titans on 14/6 so maybe some missing. Then we play Dolphins 3 days later so they might rest some.
8 July - Drags prior so unlikely they miss any players - then Warriors 2 days later - no SOO reps AI at work on this one!

Beat me to it!

 

[liltiger]

3 clubs who are going over next year did not play finals this year. Two of them bottom 4, 1 of them wooden spooners.

Maybe going to Vegas is a punishment not a reward.

 

[Tom Shines]

Couldn't ask for an easier start but if our halfback is Jock I don't know how many we win

The club keeps you out of the loop so one can only speculate

Im not sure he would he be our halfback ? AD and Latu both injured ?

 

[TigerBurnsy]

I don’t think Canberra and manly are going to be the same teams, we usually play well against the sharks as well for whatever reason. The dogs and riff on the other side of the bye could be bad . But that’s also middle of origin season. Could be much worse

I think manly will be really poor next year with no dce and turbos body is completely cooked he’s a waste at fullback

 

[TigerBurnsy]

Im not sure he would he be our halfback ? AD and Latu both injured ?

How long is latu out for