Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

Still going with your wild predictions? You might get one right one day, broken closk is right twice a day etc.

How did your last prediction go? 14000 cases in Aus today? Close? No, out by 12000.

Go away

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?

Better, some bloke in SA.

 

[TheDaBoss]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

source? bbq?

 

[tigerbalm]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?


Better, some bloke in SA.

Ah, cool. As long as its legit.

Wouldn't want to spread false rumors read on social networking sites. That would be stupid.

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?


Better, some bloke in SA.

Ah, cool. As long as its legit.

Wouldn't want to spread false rumors read on social networking sites. That would be stupid.

Insanely stupid, particularly during an actual time of real crisis. Coincidentally it would put it in the Smokinggun realms of stupidity.

 

[Regan]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?

Very close to actually

 

[jadtiger]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

That would explain why you are talking rubbish

 

[kevinmcguinness]


 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Then help us out mate, is it 14000 today? Your credibility and your mate in SA's credibility is shot. You have a fair bit of nerve coming in here and spouting further rubbish. Reminds me of someone else actually.

 

[twentyforty]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.

Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?

 

[Guest]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.

 

[Regan]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?

Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?

Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha

Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

 

[twentyforty]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all


Still going with your wild predictions? You might get one right one day, broken closk is right twice a day etc.

How did your last prediction go? 14000 cases in Aus today? Close? No, out by 12000.

Go away

It would be very brave to dispute or substantiate any data which gives us the number of infected patients given the nature of the symptoms and knowing that only .6% of the population has been tested.

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.

Unsure if reinfection possibilities and whether or not virus is defeated or just dormant?

Obviously people aren’t immune and in my books due to virulence, but potentially not science, it’s quite possible ‘recovered’ is just the term for playing it safe and obviously unsure of future “positive” or “negative” when re-tested, so really, it’s smart to save those kits and see.

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.

Careful Willow, if you ban Regan, who can we rely on for the troof?

Not every media outlet. WHO, DoH,......without Regan and his mate in the SA bunker, how will we know the troof. DId you know that there are really 14000 cases in Australia today and the government are hiding all the dead bodies and full ICU beds? You didnt know did you, well without Regan and bunker boy, NONE of us will know.

Tread carefully in dangerous times.

 

[hammertime]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha


Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

It can also depend what is determined as "recovered". From what I understand, people can remain infectious well after the 14 days, but have recovered the immediate symptoms.

I dare say people won't be let out as "recovered" until they are completely past the infection.

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha


Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

It can also depend what is determined as "recovered". From what I understand, people can remain infectious well after the 14 days, but have recovered the immediate symptoms.

I dare say people won't be let out as "recovered" until they are completely past the infection.

What I’d have thought!

 

[Tigerboy]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all


Still going with your wild predictions? You might get one right one day, broken closk is right twice a day etc.

How did your last prediction go? 14000 cases in Aus today? Close? No, out by 12000.

Go away


It would be very brave to dispute or substantiate any data which gives us the number of infected patients given the nature of the symptoms and knowing that only .6% of the population has been tested.

There’s obviously a real chance it’s viral capabilities are somewhat similar to Herpes and can stay dormant over long periods... if that is the case then shouldn’t we wait until information comes to light about exactly how long/what it takes to not only alleviate symptoms but spread?