Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

A huge concern I have at the moment is that there has been no word on temporary nationalisation of private hospitals, along with their doctors and staff. For mine that is the only way that care will be given based on need, rather than thickness of wallets.

Whilst the state's would control them as part of overall response, I don't think they have the power to compel them to cooperate, with procurement at many levels a federal responsibility.


This already exists and private hospitals can be compelled to take public patients already. This will not be an issue.

You do NOT want to nationalise Private hospitals, temporarily or not. All over Australia, there are many sick, dying and busted people getting important health care, some of it critical. These existing patients are entitled to the best care. There are 13 COVID patients in Australian Hospitals.

If the current provisions are adequate, fine, but I think that you will find that they are not at the level that could be needed. This is all about preparation.

I know nationalisation scares the small government people, but I think they should also prepare to accept it, as unless things work out somewhere near a best case scenario, they are about to see it playing out.

There will not be empty beds in private hospitals while people die waiting outside public, This is already the case.

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

 

[weststigers]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.


 

[TrueTiger]

I just read an article in news.com,that in 2007 we were warned that a virus such as this or equal to the deadly Sars virus would re emerge from China...it stipulated it would come from the wet markets...

Now Im not making a racist speech here but Iam blaming China for not cleaning up its act re the wet markets and no real hygiene specifications...
Its all well and good to say they have eaten like this for years and years,however the amount of people travelling to places all over the globe and nowing that many would visit China you would think hygiene would be paramount within these markets....
To me they are a global force in producing many,many things as well as having highly reputable and intelligent doctors...why the hell wouldn't the CCP heed the advice given to them and act quickly when they were warned...through their arrogance and stupidity we are all suffering globally...

 

[happy_tiger]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

Any truth we are tracking at the same rate as Italy ...only difference is they have an older population

 

[cktiger]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

That’s all well and good but what are the statistics of deaths to infection?

 

[weststigers]

Dont quite get the panic over whether or not schools are open. Make your own decision and keep your kids home if you think the school should shut. My daughter will be staying home and working online. Simple. Problem solved.

My missus is a teacher and it's the teachers that are the ones screaming. Parents were already keeping their kids home.

Apart from not wanting to be exposed, it essentially doubles their workload as they need to prepare a lesson plan as well as rejig that lesson into a home learning plan for the kids that stay at home. Not easy if you see what they need to do as it is.

Coming from a teaching background myself, I think anyone expecting teacher to be delivering lessons online is kidding themselves. I also don't think it is that important at the moment.

Why not? The rest of the World is being expected to do things that are not easy and to find ways of doing *their* job in a way that they can still be productive and keep society working. What makes teachers different or special? At least teachers jobs and wages are secure, a priceless situation to be in compared to the rest of the population. If the price they pay for that security is to have to work a little harder and teach online, they should suck it up and smile.

My daughter is going to school and will continue to go to school while ever they are open to keep things as normal as possible for her at the moment. Her anxiety levels are already raise so as much as I can keep normal the happier she will be.

If and when the schools close then I am not overly worried about what she achieves. We will do a couple of hours school work in the morning with me teaching her, but it will primarily be interest based and wont be based off what the school is sending home. If schools close we will be so far away from normality that I do no believe the normal expectations should be applied. I will be more focused on her mental health, being an only child and losing contact with her peers and primarily relying on her parents for companionship is a recipe for a child to struggle to cope. That is also why I refuse to buy into the panic that is occurring all around us as that will only serve to raise her anxiety levels.

You are a good dad.

Thanks mate!

The reason is I do not think online learning will work.

For starters when we moved to Naplan online the entire system crashed, what is going to happen when we have all student's trying to log on for their lessons at once.

Secondly, schools are not prepared for this and very little training has been provided to teachers to be able to do it!

Thirdly, what do we do with the large number of kids who do not have access to the technology required? Do they fall behind because of the economic circumstances of their parents? Are we back to a system that provides education for the rich while the poor miss out?

Also, I was a primary teacher and a online learning model is not appropriate for primary students.

Finally, many many teachers are parents also, how do teachers teach online while they are also caring for their own children now that schools are closed. This is going to be an issue for anyone trying to work from home once schools close!

I think we need to look at universities for the solution because uni students miss the live lectures and tutorials all the time.

Teacher simply pre-records the lesson (just like recorded lectures at uni) and provides the powerpoint + worksheets online.

Homework is still due and marked accordingly.

Kids and parents can ask questions via email or online forum. Booked appointments can be arranged via telephone.

Not perfect, but should see us through.

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

Any truth we are tracking at the same rate as Italy ...only difference is they have an older population

Yes and no, but it would be typical of the media to cherry pick fact to sell a terrifying headline.

Truth is that TODAY Italy is going better than us. Whilst our infection rate is growing with an exponential multiplier at a steady 1.2-1.25, Italy's growth right now is at an exponential multiplier of about 1.1.

But that doesnt tell the true tale that at the start Italy's multiplier was up to 1.6. At the same stage as us today (15 days since 100 cases), their multiplier was 1.24 but they had 7375 cases (we have 1717).

Here are the total cases graphs for both countries on identical axis, for the same period (0-15 days after 100 cases).
Australia
Italy

And here are the graphs for the exponential multiplier,
Aus

Italy

Italys multiplier varies widely but is generally coming down. I think the wide variation would be a factor of their testing. Lots of reports that they didnt test enough early. The consistency of our multiplier graph terrifies me in that it doesnt seem that we can break the trend but it does also give me more confidence that we are testing well and seemingly getting consistent data that makes sense.

Lets hope these latest measures start to take hold and make an effect.

 

[TheDaBoss]

My school just got shut down today. No idea how this is all going to pan out seeing as I'm meant to be doing my HSC this year.

where abouts is your school mate?

 

[cochise]

Dont quite get the panic over whether or not schools are open. Make your own decision and keep your kids home if you think the school should shut. My daughter will be staying home and working online. Simple. Problem solved.

My missus is a teacher and it's the teachers that are the ones screaming. Parents were already keeping their kids home.

Apart from not wanting to be exposed, it essentially doubles their workload as they need to prepare a lesson plan as well as rejig that lesson into a home learning plan for the kids that stay at home. Not easy if you see what they need to do as it is.

Coming from a teaching background myself, I think anyone expecting teacher to be delivering lessons online is kidding themselves. I also don't think it is that important at the moment.

Why not? The rest of the World is being expected to do things that are not easy and to find ways of doing *their* job in a way that they can still be productive and keep society working. What makes teachers different or special? At least teachers jobs and wages are secure, a priceless situation to be in compared to the rest of the population. If the price they pay for that security is to have to work a little harder and teach online, they should suck it up and smile.

My daughter is going to school and will continue to go to school while ever they are open to keep things as normal as possible for her at the moment. Her anxiety levels are already raise so as much as I can keep normal the happier she will be.

If and when the schools close then I am not overly worried about what she achieves. We will do a couple of hours school work in the morning with me teaching her, but it will primarily be interest based and wont be based off what the school is sending home. If schools close we will be so far away from normality that I do no believe the normal expectations should be applied. I will be more focused on her mental health, being an only child and losing contact with her peers and primarily relying on her parents for companionship is a recipe for a child to struggle to cope. That is also why I refuse to buy into the panic that is occurring all around us as that will only serve to raise her anxiety levels.

You are a good dad.

Thanks mate!

The reason is I do not think online learning will work.

For starters when we moved to Naplan online the entire system crashed, what is going to happen when we have all student's trying to log on for their lessons at once.

Secondly, schools are not prepared for this and very little training has been provided to teachers to be able to do it!

Thirdly, what do we do with the large number of kids who do not have access to the technology required? Do they fall behind because of the economic circumstances of their parents? Are we back to a system that provides education for the rich while the poor miss out?

Also, I was a primary teacher and a online learning model is not appropriate for primary students.

Finally, many many teachers are parents also, how do teachers teach online while they are also caring for their own children now that schools are closed. This is going to be an issue for anyone trying to work from home once schools close!

I think we need to look at universities for the solution because uni students miss the live lectures and tutorials all the time.

Teacher simply pre-records the lesson (just like recorded lectures at uni) and provides the powerpoint + worksheets online.

Homework is still due and marked accordingly.

Kids and parents can ask questions via email or online forum. Booked appointments can be arranged via telephone.

Not perfect, but should see us through.

May work for high school but not primary school and doesn't fix the number of other issues I raised! Homework in primary school is a waste of time!

 

[Papacito]

I just read an article in news.com,that in 2007 we were warned that a virus such as this or equal to the deadly Sars virus would re emerge from China...it stipulated it would come from the wet markets...

Now Im not making a racist speech here but Iam blaming China for not cleaning up its act re the wet markets and no real hygiene specifications...
Its all well and good to say they have eaten like this for years and years,however the amount of people travelling to places all over the globe and nowing that many would visit China you would think hygiene would be paramount within these markets....
To me they are a global force in producing many,many things as well as having highly reputable and intelligent doctors...why the hell wouldn't the CCP heed the advice given to them and act quickly when they were warned...through their arrogance and stupidity we are all suffering globally...

The markets are a well-documented risk factor but these viruses can (and do) transfer to humans in other ways.

A few years ago a very similar disease emerged on a Chinese pig farm, simply because a colony of were bats in close proximity. These diseases can then jump to humans.

They should close down those markets but it does not mean these things will never happen again.

Why China allows it is simple, money. Some rich people that like eating exotic animals hold a lot of political sway.

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

That’s all well and good but what are the statistics of deaths to infection?

I dont have the day to day data on that but a simple look says that they have had 63927 cases and 6077 deaths which is a terrifying 9.5%.

We have had 1831 cases with 7 deaths which is 0.3%.

As discussed here before, I think the mortality rate in Italy says more about the health system being totally overwhelmed than the mortality of the virus which of course is why we need to get that multiplier number down.

 

[Tigerboy]

How does one report online today?

 

[Regan]

Michael Usher just on triple M saying the government not releasing the real Corona numbers I told you on Sunday the guy from SA
Health told not the government has taken over reporting the real numbers from Sunday and still on for 2 April lock down

 

[weststigers]

Dont quite get the panic over whether or not schools are open. Make your own decision and keep your kids home if you think the school should shut. My daughter will be staying home and working online. Simple. Problem solved.

My missus is a teacher and it's the teachers that are the ones screaming. Parents were already keeping their kids home.

Apart from not wanting to be exposed, it essentially doubles their workload as they need to prepare a lesson plan as well as rejig that lesson into a home learning plan for the kids that stay at home. Not easy if you see what they need to do as it is.

Coming from a teaching background myself, I think anyone expecting teacher to be delivering lessons online is kidding themselves. I also don't think it is that important at the moment.

Why not? The rest of the World is being expected to do things that are not easy and to find ways of doing *their* job in a way that they can still be productive and keep society working. What makes teachers different or special? At least teachers jobs and wages are secure, a priceless situation to be in compared to the rest of the population. If the price they pay for that security is to have to work a little harder and teach online, they should suck it up and smile.

My daughter is going to school and will continue to go to school while ever they are open to keep things as normal as possible for her at the moment. Her anxiety levels are already raise so as much as I can keep normal the happier she will be.

If and when the schools close then I am not overly worried about what she achieves. We will do a couple of hours school work in the morning with me teaching her, but it will primarily be interest based and wont be based off what the school is sending home. If schools close we will be so far away from normality that I do no believe the normal expectations should be applied. I will be more focused on her mental health, being an only child and losing contact with her peers and primarily relying on her parents for companionship is a recipe for a child to struggle to cope. That is also why I refuse to buy into the panic that is occurring all around us as that will only serve to raise her anxiety levels.

You are a good dad.

Thanks mate!

The reason is I do not think online learning will work.

For starters when we moved to Naplan online the entire system crashed, what is going to happen when we have all student's trying to log on for their lessons at once.

Secondly, schools are not prepared for this and very little training has been provided to teachers to be able to do it!

Thirdly, what do we do with the large number of kids who do not have access to the technology required? Do they fall behind because of the economic circumstances of their parents? Are we back to a system that provides education for the rich while the poor miss out?

Also, I was a primary teacher and a online learning model is not appropriate for primary students.

Finally, many many teachers are parents also, how do teachers teach online while they are also caring for their own children now that schools are closed. This is going to be an issue for anyone trying to work from home once schools close!

I think we need to look at universities for the solution because uni students miss the live lectures and tutorials all the time.

Teacher simply pre-records the lesson (just like recorded lectures at uni) and provides the powerpoint + worksheets online.

Homework is still due and marked accordingly.

Kids and parents can ask questions via email or online forum. Booked appointments can be arranged via telephone.

Not perfect, but should see us through.

May work for high school but not primary school and doesn't fix the number of other issues I raised! Homework in primary school is a waste of time!

My missus was saying for primary it will just be work sent home for them to do at their pace. No Skype classes or similar.

Any questions are dealt with as they arise through the learning platform they have.

I don't know about the merits of home work and whether or not it's effective. I just assumed school = home work, but not sure what they get up to these days. Personally, I think it causes more problems than it solves, but that's another story.

Obviously, this will be difficult for some families and we may find many kids left behind. She works at a school with many immigrant children whose parents don't speak/read English very well, so automatically, this will be a challenge to implement.

Again, not perfect, but the reality is we can't do much else. Ultimately, it will come down to the available investment of time and resources a parent has available to their child. Some parents will be better placed than others and it will be a case of some being left worse off than others.

The kids going through this right now will be the guinea pigs for future planning around online, or rather, emergency learning.

"Continuity plan" will be the biggest buzzword of the next decade!

 

[twentyforty]

During these times it would be helpful if people focussed more on solutions rather than reasons why solutions cannot be achieved / problems cannot be solved.

 

[Tiger5150]

Michael Usher just on triple M saying the government not releasing the real Corona numbers I told you on Sunday the guy from SA
Health told not the government has taken over reporting the real numbers from Sunday and still on for 2 April lock down

So the real number today is really 14000? The government is hiding the dead bodies and the ICU beds?

Mate and/or your SA friend are full of it and your tinfoil hat rubbish are pretty counter productive. There is enough to worry about without making complete rubbish up.

There will be tougher lockdowns but in effect we are already in a lockdown with most non essential services closed. Your mate didnt predict that.

Your mate predicted 14000 TODAY, only 12000 off. Your alarmist conspiratorial rubbish is not needed.

 

[Regan]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

 

[tigerbalm]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.


The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.